Here we are, after twenty nine weeks of TWC NHL Power Rankings, the final edition for the 2021–22 season is here. While we close the book on the regular season and open the doors to the NHL Playoffs starting tonight, we take one last look at the landscape and use the same model to try to predict the NHL playoffs using our TWCScore model.
TWC Power Rankings explained
If you’re new to our power rankings, this is how it all works.
Here at TWC, we use a statistical model to effectively rank teams on a week to week basis. The model takes into effect winning percentages, CF%, SCF%, HDCF% as well as SV%. Each statistical category is weighed and scored differently, giving each team a unique TWC Score that determines their ranking after each week. The formula puts the highest emphasis on winning percentages over other statistics. All numbers are taken in all situations, to incorporate special teams into the fray.
We got some excellent feedback over the course of last season from our readers as to how we could improve this model moving forward. We have slightly altered the weightings of the statistical categories, but also added a large recency component to make sure that each week the teams that are riding hot streaks are more appropriately demonstrated in the rankings.
Don’t like where your team is ranked? Unfortunately, they will have to turn it around on the ice, as we take zero personal opinions into effect.
Have any suggestions for the TWC Power Rankings for next season? Leave us a comment and let us know. Without further ado, this week’s power rankings are below!
Week 29 NHL Power Rankings
|Rank||Change||Team||Team Name||Last Week||Record||TWCScore|
|2||–||Toronto Maple Leafs||2-0-0||54-21-7||776|
|7||–||Tampa Bay Lightning||2-1-0||51-23-8||745.9|
|11||-1||New York Rangers||1-2-0||52-24-6||717.3|
|12||+1||Los Angeles Kings||1-0-1||44-27-11||712.1|
|13||-2||St Louis Blues||0-2-0||49-22-11||712.1|
|16||–||Vegas Golden Knights||1-0-2||43-31-8||684.4|
|20||–||New York Islanders||2-1-0||37-35-10||632.1|
|21||–||San Jose Sharks||0-2-1||32-37-13||613.8|
|22||–||Columbus Blue Jackets||1-2-0||37-38-7||606.9|
|25||-2||New Jersey Devils||0-2-1||27-46-9||597.2|
|27||–||Detroit Red Wings||1-1-0||32-40-10||584.3|
Quite the quiet final week in our rankings, despite a number of games being played last week our model has a shockingly little amount of movement. All teams from first to ninth remained in the same positions. Now this is primarily due to the fact that as the season comes to a close, the points percentages are hard to overtake and most of these teams were solidified in their relevant standings position at the start of last week. Additionally, even some of the top teams didn’t have drastic swings in their analytics despite some teams icing AHL rosters in their final games.
All of that combined gave the Florida Panthers the final TWC NHL Power Rankings crown. The Presidents’ Trophy champions are going into the postseason on top, despite even a 1–2–0 week to end the year.
It’s not until the tenth position where things start to shuffle. The scorching hot Edmonton Oilers jumped into the tenth position after a 3–0–0 week. Starting with Game 1 tonight against the Los Angeles Kings, it would be hard to be a Kings fan right now and not be a little bit worried at how the Oilers are playing.
The New York Rangers and Kings actually swapped spots this past week from eleventh to twelfth. Despite the Rangers going 1–2–0, they got a huge bump from their SV% numbers that gave them the slight edge in TWCScore.
The St. Louis Blues took a small tumble after going winless in two games, falling two spots to thirteenth. As a result the team lost home ice advantage to the Minnesota Wild, in which will easily be one of the most watched first round series.
A few other shuffles among teams like the Dallas Stars and Washington Capitals swapping places, and even the Ottawa Senators and New Jersey Devils, but the real focus shifts to the playoff season now.
TWCScore NHL Playoff Bracket
Using the TWCScore model, we have taken a look at the most recent TWCScore trends over the past few weeks and used that to predict what the postseason will look like. It provides a bit more basis and predictive power than using NHL22 as a playoffs simulation, something we looked at for fun as well.
The results are in, your Stanley Cup Champions (based on our model) are:
The Florida Panthers!
Now here is how the post season turned out using our model. In the first round the Colorado Avalanche, Minnesota Wild, and Calgary Flames made quick work of their matchups. The Oilers had a much closer matchup with the Kings, but still were the superior team. Out east, the Panthers walked past the Washington Capitals, but the rest of the series were statistically much closer. The Toronto Maple Leafs took the edge over the Tampa Bay Lightning, the Carolina Hurricanes eked out the Boston Bruins, and the Pittsburgh Penguins had a much closer matchup with the Rangers.
Moving through the rest of the playoffs, the Avalanche and Flames who were darlings in our model all season made it through their second round matchups with slight ease. Out east, it was almost a crime that two of our top teams in our model had to meet in the second round, but the Panthers’ numbers were just that good all season that it got them past the Leafs. The Hurricanes also were able to make quick work of the Penguins after being favorites in our model as well.
To no surprise, four of the top five teams in our model this season made it to the final four, with Colorado and Florida making it out on top. Both margins were extremely slim between each matchups, but the model favored the two top teams in each conference.
In the finals, it was another close matchup, but as it was all season in our rankings, it was hard to catch the Panthers.
Thank you for tuning in weekly for the TWC NHL Power Rankings, more to come in the postseason!
Past Power Rankings
Check here for how teams have done over past weeks and stay tuned for upcoming power rankings. Note: Week 11 was skipped and combined with Week 12 due to a lack of games.