After the dust settled from the NHL Trade Deadline, it was an extremely quiet week in the TWC NHL Power Rankings. As we approach the end of the season, each team’s aggregate performance has been firmly established and big moves are unlikely. Looking at the differences in TWCScores for each team will also reveal why there’s changes or the lack thereof. That being said, we still had some changes that won’t go unnoticed!
TWC Power Rankings explained
If you’re new to our power rankings, this is how it all works.
Here at TWC, we use a statistical model to effectively rank teams on a week to week basis. The model takes into effect winning percentages, CF%, SCF%, HDCF% as well as SV%. Each statistical category is weighed and scored differently, giving each team a unique TWC Score that determines their ranking after each week. The formula puts the highest emphasis on winning percentages over other statistics. All numbers are taken in all situations, to incorporate special teams into the fray.
We got some excellent feedback over the course of last season from our readers as to how we could improve this model moving forward. We have slightly altered the weightings of the statistical categories, but also added a large recency component to make sure that each week the teams that are riding hot streaks are more appropriately demonstrated in the rankings.
Don’t like where your team is ranked? Unfortunately, they will have to turn it around on the ice, as we take zero personal opinions into effect.
Have any suggestions for the TWC Power Rankings for next season? Leave us a comment and let us know. Without further ado, this week’s power rankings are below!
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Week 24 NHL Power Rankings
|Rank||Change||Team||Team Name||Last Week||Record||TWCScore|
|5||–||Toronto Maple Leafs||2-1-0||41-19-5||759.6|
|6||–||Tampa Bay Lightning||2-2-0||41-18-6||748.9|
|10||+1||Los Angeles Kings||2-0-1||36-22-9||713.8|
|11||-1||New York Rangers||2-1-0||42-19-5||710.8|
|16||-1||St Louis Blues||1-2-0||35-20-9||686.1|
|17||–||Vegas Golden Knights||2-2-0||36-28-4||674|
|20||–||New York Islanders||2-2-0||28-27-9||638.2|
|21||–||San Jose Sharks||2-1-0||29-28-8||636.9|
|22||+1||Columbus Blue Jackets||0-1-2||32-29-5||619|
|24||–||New Jersey Devils||2-2-0||24-37-5||612.5|
|25||–||Detroit Red Wings||1-2-1||26-32-8||592.5|
If you thought last week was quiet, then this week can be considered pin-drop silent. With under a quarter of a season left, movement in the TWC rankings don’t represent wild swings in performances, they now represent teams who are neck and neck with superiority established by margins. We’re quickly heading towards photo-finish territory for the top team as ranked by our model.
The Florida Panthers remained in the top spot this week with a 2–1–0 record. Despite having just the second best points percentage in the league, they are a top-three team across most categories measured in our model. This includes being first in Corsi for percentage in the entire NHL. The Panthers are poised for a long playoff run.
One of the “bigger” moves this past week was the swapping of the Carolina Hurricanes and Colorado Avalanche. As we touched on last week, the difference between these two teams is marginal. By marginal, we mean 0.4 TWCScore. Colorado holds the best points percentage in the NHL, which pushes them up our list, but Carolina has the edge in every single other category measured in our model. They get the edge this week due to the fact they did not register a regulation loss, while the Avalanche had one.
We are talking extremely thin margins between two extremely talented teams, so the swapping of places is more of a point in time rather than a declaration of a better team. We’ll have to wait for all 82 games to see how they ultimately stack up.
Moving down our list, the rest of our top nine remains the same, but the Los Angeles Kings return to the fray as the tenth team. The Kings continue to fly under the radar this season, but should get some recognition. They sit fourth in CF%, eighth in xGF%, sixth in SCF%, and tenth in HDCF%, which is well above the league average. They are only being brought down due to their 17th ranked SV%, but their 2–0–1 record was just enough to get them back into the top ten this week.
The rest of our list this week primarily focused on swaps. The Dallas Stars and Edmonton Oilers moved between the 13th and 14th places, while right below them the Nashville Predators and St. Louis Blues traded the 15th and 16th spots.
More swapping happened down the list as well with Columbus, Anaheim, Buffalo, and Philadelphia, with more one place swaps between the teams.
As we reach the final stretch of the season, we’ll see where teams ultimately rank. We’re seeing all the top teams keeping pace with one another, and underlying numbers are rightfully rewarding teams for their solid body of work over 65 games. Buckle up—the playoffs are rapidly approaching.
Past Power Rankings
Check here for how teams have done over past weeks and stay tuned for upcoming power rankings. Note: Week 11 was skipped and combined with Week 12 due to a lack of games.
Week 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 |
11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23
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