Power Rankings

TWC NHL Power Rankings 2021–22: Week 16

A back and forth week at the top, combined with some absolutely scorching teams, leaves Week 16 as a spicy entry in the TWC NHL Power Rankings. Aside from the bottom two teams, all others are even spaced on the TWCScore spectrum as teams enter the second half of the season. Check out where every team is at this week!

TWC Power Rankings explained

If you’re new to our power rankings, this is how it all works.

Here at TWC, we use a statistical model to effectively rank teams on a week to week basis. The model takes into effect winning percentages, CF%, SCF%, HDCF% as well as SV%. Each statistical category is weighed and scored differently, giving each team a unique TWC Score that determines their ranking after each week. The formula puts the highest emphasis on winning percentages over other statistics. All numbers are taken in all situations, to incorporate special teams into the fray.

We got some excellent feedback over the course of last season from our readers as to how we could improve this model moving forward. We have slightly altered the weightings of the statistical categories, but also added a large recency component to make sure that each week the teams that are riding hot streaks are more appropriately demonstrated in the rankings.

Don’t like where your team is ranked? Unfortunately, they will have to turn it around on the ice, as we take zero personal opinions into effect.

Have any suggestions for the TWC Power Rankings for next season? Leave us a comment and let us know. Without further ado, this week’s power rankings are below!

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Week 16 NHL Power Rankings

RankChangeTeamTeam NameLast WeekRecordTWCScore
Carolina Hurricanes4-0-031-9-2797
Colorado Avalanche4-0-032-8-3793.8
Florida Panthers3-0-031-9-5787.6
Toronto Maple Leafs2-0-027-10-3780.5
Tampa Bay Lightning1-0-129-10-6772.2
Minnesota Wild3-0-027-10-3753
Pittsburgh Penguins1-1-227-11-7750
Calgary Flames3-1-021-13-6728.7
Boston Bruins1-2-125-14-3725.5
Washington Capitals1-2-024-12-9709.5
New York Rangers2-2-029-13-4706.9
Nashville Predators1-0-127-14-4706.9
Los Angeles Kings2-0-223-16-7698.2
St Louis Blues1-2-026-13-5697
Dallas Stars3-1-023-17-2695.5
Vegas Golden Knights2-1-126-16-3695.2
Edmonton Oilers3-0-022-16-2685.1
Anaheim Ducks3-0-123-16-8662.1
Winnipeg Jets1-2-018-16-7657
San Jose Sharks1-1-122-20-3655
Vancouver Canucks1-0-219-19-6638.4
New York Islanders1-2-015-16-6628.8
New Jersey Devils0-3-015-23-5614.9
Columbus Blue Jackets2-1-020-21-1607.1
Detroit Red Wings1-2-019-20-6606.2
Chicago Blackhawks1-2-016-21-7595.5
Seattle Kraken1-2-014-26-4574.7
Ottawa Senators1-1-113-21-4568.3
Philadelphia Flyers1-2-014-22-8566.8
Buffalo Sabres1-2-014-23-7551.5
Arizona Coyotes0-3-010-29-4492.2
Montreal Canadiens0-4-08-29-7490

The Carolina Hurricanes reign supreme yet again, by an extremely close margin over the Colorado Avalanche. This week was absolutely crazy if you are just looking at the top of our list. Both the Hurricanes and Avalanche were 4–0–0 last week, yet Carolina jumped Colorado in our rankings. This absolutely comes down to their underlying numbers in our model:

Carolina0.76 (2nd)54.7% (3rd)54.3% (4th)54.1% (5th)53.8% (6th)91.7% (2nd)
Colorado0.78 (1st)53.3% (6th)53.2% (9th)54.2% (4th)50.7% (15th)90.6% (17th)

The Canes are top ten in the league across all categories measures, while the Avalanche are 15th and 17th in HDCF% and SV% respectively. Although they take the edge in points percentage which is weighted the most, the Avs just simply are behind in too many categories to take the edge. Since both teams were 4–0–0 over the last seven days, it’s hard to take any recency into account, even with Colorado’s ten-game win streak. The slim margin of 3.2 in their TWCScores makes this a battle to watch for weeks to come.

The rest of the top five remained the same week over week with the Florida Panthers, Toronto Maple Leafs, and Tampa Bay Lightning rounding out the top of the list—all Atlantic Division teams in case you didn’t already know.

The Minnesota Wild were up two spots to sixth spot after going 3–0–0 last week. The team is on a five-game win streak, and now 8–1–1 in their last ten games. Although it is hard to keep up with the Avs in the Central Division, the Wild have the fifth best winning percentage in the NHL and are not to be messed with.

The Calgary Flames returned to the top ten for the first time in a while after going 3-1–0 last week, with two absolutely dominant games against the St. Louis Blues and Columbus Blue Jackets. The team is still making up games after the COVID pause, and are about to head into a busy two months, but they have enough games in hand to challenge for the top of the Pacific Division. 

Speaking of the St. Louis Blues, they were actually the team with the biggest drop this week. Of course, three spots is nothing to truly worry about, but later in the season it’s often bigger than most. A 1–2–0 week doesn’t do you much good in the rankings, especially when all of the surrounding teams are winning, but the Blue still sit comfortably in a playoff position. 

Other notables from this week’s rankings: 

  • The Edmonton Oilers got back in the win column in a significant way, winning their last four games. Although two came in extra time, and one was against the Montreal Canadiens, it was a step in the right direction. Even if their moves off the ice were not. 
  • The Philadelphia Flyers finally ended their atrocious losing streak, but their season was already in write-off status.
  • The New Jersey Devils lost their fourth in a row. A team that had a ton of promise, they just couldn’t catch a break this year being ravaged by injuries. 

Past Power Rankings

Check here for how teams have done over past weeks and stay tuned for upcoming power rankings. Note: Week 11 was skipped and combined with Week 12 due to a lack of games.

Week 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15

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