Power Rankings

TWC NHL Power Rankings 2021–22: Week 21

If you thought last week’s TWC NHL Power Rankings had movement, then you are in for a shock in Week 21. A new top ten team has entered the fray, and four of the top six teams swapped places. Combine that with pretty much a complete reshuffling among the middle of the pack and it’s an entirely different landscape two weeks from the trade deadline.

TWC Power Rankings explained

If you’re new to our power rankings, this is how it all works.

Here at TWC, we use a statistical model to effectively rank teams on a week to week basis. The model takes into effect winning percentages, CF%, SCF%, HDCF% as well as SV%. Each statistical category is weighed and scored differently, giving each team a unique TWC Score that determines their ranking after each week. The formula puts the highest emphasis on winning percentages over other statistics. All numbers are taken in all situations, to incorporate special teams into the fray.

We got some excellent feedback over the course of last season from our readers as to how we could improve this model moving forward. We have slightly altered the weightings of the statistical categories, but also added a large recency component to make sure that each week the teams that are riding hot streaks are more appropriately demonstrated in the rankings.

Don’t like where your team is ranked? Unfortunately, they will have to turn it around on the ice, as we take zero personal opinions into effect.

Have any suggestions for the TWC Power Rankings for next season? Leave us a comment and let us know. Without further ado, this week’s power rankings are below!

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Week 21 NHL Power Rankings

RankChangeTeamTeam NameLast WeekRecordTWCScore
Colorado Avalanche1-1-140-11-5784.5
Carolina Hurricanes2-1-139-12-5780.8
Florida Panthers2-0-037-13-5779.1
Tampa Bay Lightning3-1-037-12-6778.1
Calgary Flames2-0-133-14-7765.6
Toronto Maple Leafs1-2-035-16-4758.9
Pittsburgh Penguins1-0-134-14-9749.2
Boston Bruins3-1-034-18-4730.6
New York Rangers3-0-036-15-5718.9
Los Angeles Kings2-2-031-19-7715.1
Dallas Stars3-0-032-20-3713
Minnesota Wild1-3-032-19-3703.8
St Louis Blues0-2-132-16-7701.1
Washington Capitals2-1-030-18-9694.1
Vegas Golden Knights3-1-032-21-4689.1
Nashville Predators1-1-031-20-4684.1
Edmonton Oilers1-1-130-22-4683.3
Vancouver Canucks2-1-028-23-6653.5
Winnipeg Jets1-1-124-22-10648.5
Anaheim Ducks2-1-027-22-9648.1
New York Islanders1-2-021-23-8628.4
San Jose Sharks0-2-124-25-7628.3
Columbus Blue Jackets1-0-228-25-3621.5
New Jersey Devils2-2-020-31-5611.7
Detroit Red Wings1-2-024-26-6605.6
Chicago Blackhawks1-2-020-29-8584.9
Philadelphia Flyers1-2-017-28-10569.1
Ottawa Senators0-4-019-31-5568
Seattle Kraken1-2-017-36-5555.6
Buffalo Sabres2-1-018-31-8552.9
Montreal Canadiens2-1-015-34-7529.5
Arizona Coyotes2-0-016-35-4514.2

The Colorado Avalanche and Carolina Hurricanes retained the top two rankings this week, despite only going a combined 3–2–2. The gap between these two teams remained slim, but interestingly enough the gap between the third and fourth placed teams was even smaller.

The Florida Panthers got out of their rut and won both games last week to go 2–0–0 and jump over their state rivals in the Tampa Bay Lightning. Even though the Lightning went 3–1–0, Florida’s TWCScore was just one point higher, giving them the slight edge. The Panthers are first in CF%, xGF%, and second in SCF% which gives them a leg up, even with Tampa having the league’s best HDCF%. The battle in Florida continues.

Continuing that narrative, the two top Canadian teams on our list swapped places this week. The Calgary Flames jumped up into the fifth overall spot, while the Toronto Maple Leafs took a bit of a tumble into sixth. We have spoken about both teams at length this season, but right now it’s two teams in opposite directions. The Flames have been on a roll since the start of February, while the Leafs are trying to overcome some poor goaltending. In fact, the Leafs who once had a solid cushion in the top three in the Atlantic now just have two points separating them from the fourth placed Boston Bruins. It’s getting interesting up north.

The New York Rangers were the hottest team this week, going 3–0–0 and moving up three spots into the ninth spot on our list. The Rangers, or should we say Igor Shesterkin’s team, are 7–2–1 in their last ten games and are sitting second in the Metropolitan Division. What’s fascinating about this is that the stats measured in our model are just nowhere near the other top teams in the league. They are 31st in CF% & SCF%, 18th in xGF%, and 22nd in HDCF%. That being said, the team is first in the league in SV% by a wide margin. It’s the Shesterkin show on Broadway and frankly he should be the leading Hart Trophy candidate. 

In terms of teams headed in the other direction, a few teams dropped two spots and got to share that honor this week. The Minnesota Wild, St. Louis Blues, and Edmonton Oilers all are classified as the “biggest losers” after going a combined 2–6–2 last week. For teams fighting for playoff positioning, and even their playoff lives, that just simply won’t do. 

Other notables from last weeks’ rankings: 

  • The Vegas Golden Knights went 3–1–0 and are now safely back in the third spot in the Pacific Division. After briefly falling out of the playoff picture, the Golden Knights needed a bit of a bounce back, which they got in two straight wins.
  • The Dallas Stars went 3–0–0, have won four straight, and have jumped past the Nashville Predators into fourth place in the Central Division. They are tied with Minnesota in points and are just four points out of second. A “wild” turnaround for the Stars.

Past Power Rankings

Check here for how teams have done over past weeks and stay tuned for upcoming power rankings. Note: Week 11 was skipped and combined with Week 12 due to a lack of games.

Week 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19

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