The dog days of the regular season are upon us. With so many teams punching their tickets to the 2022 NHL Playoffs, the TWC NHL Power Rankings are honing into their final results. A few swaps in the top ten, combined with some curious moving teams, and the rankings book is reaching its final chapters. It’s almost playoff season.
TWC Power Rankings explained
If you’re new to our power rankings, this is how it all works.
Here at TWC, we use a statistical model to effectively rank teams on a week to week basis. The model takes into effect winning percentages, CF%, SCF%, HDCF% as well as SV%. Each statistical category is weighed and scored differently, giving each team a unique TWC Score that determines their ranking after each week. The formula puts the highest emphasis on winning percentages over other statistics. All numbers are taken in all situations, to incorporate special teams into the fray.
We got some excellent feedback over the course of last season from our readers as to how we could improve this model moving forward. We have slightly altered the weightings of the statistical categories, but also added a large recency component to make sure that each week the teams that are riding hot streaks are more appropriately demonstrated in the rankings.
Don’t like where your team is ranked? Unfortunately, they will have to turn it around on the ice, as we take zero personal opinions into effect.
Have any suggestions for the TWC Power Rankings for next season? Leave us a comment and let us know. Without further ado, this week’s power rankings are below!
Week 27 NHL Power Rankings
|Rank||Change||Team||Team Name||Last Week||Record||TWCScore|
|3||–||Toronto Maple Leafs||3-1-0||50-20-6||775.1|
|6||+1||Tampa Bay Lightning||2-1-0||46-21-8||744.6|
|10||–||New York Rangers||2-1-0||49-21-6||723.5|
|11||+2||St Louis Blues||4-0-0||46-20-10||713.6|
|15||–||Los Angeles Kings||2-1-0||40-27-10||701.9|
|17||–||Vegas Golden Knights||1-1-1||41-30-5||681.2|
|20||–||New York Islanders||2-2-0||35-31-9||641.1|
|21||–||San Jose Sharks||0-1-3||29-34-12||614.3|
|23||-1||Columbus Blue Jackets||1-2-0||35-35-6||608.7|
|24||–||New Jersey Devils||1-1-1||26-42-7||605.6|
|26||-1||Detroit Red Wings||1-3-0||29-37-10||583.2|
The rich keep getting richer as they say.
The Florida Panthers retained their top spot this week after extending their win streak to ten games. Yes, you read that right, ten straight wins. Of course, the embarrassment of riches continues when you look at our second place team, the Colorado Avalanche, who were able to extend their win streak to nine games. The top two teams in each conference are simply showing off at this point. With seven games left for both teams, it’s more about the race for the Presidents Trophy and getting primed for the first round.
The Toronto Maple Leafs retained their third overall position after a 3–1–0 week. The team is 8–1–1 in their last ten, and really look to be much better positioned heading into the playoffs than in previous years. Is this the year they can buck the first round curse?
Staying in Canada, the Calgary Flames managed to move up one spot to number four overall after a 2–1–0 week. During a week that saw Johnny Gaudreau hit 100 points and the team clinch a playoff spot, you almost forget that their one loss was a 6–1 pummelling at the hands of the Vegas Golden Knights. The responded with a nine goal outburst against the Arizona Coyotes though. Regardless, the Flames still boast some top advanced numbers in comparison to the rest of the NHL being third in CF%, xGF%, and SCF%, second in HDCF%, and fourth in SV%. The Flames are set up well for a long playoff run, but as Darryl Sutter has indicated, they aren’t looking much further ahead than Game 1.
The Carolina Hurricanes took a beating this week. A 1–2–0 record dropped them to fifth spot this week, but more importantly they suffered injuries to Jordan Staal and Fredrik Andersson. Once a playoff spot has been locked up the games start to mean a bit less, but last week certainly hurt far more than it should for a team that is first in its division.
Moving down our list, the Tampa Bay Lightning and Boston Bruins traded the sixth and seventh position last week. These teams are close enough in the standings that they are flopping places as well. Honestly, there is a chance that the WC1 spot in the east ends up facing a shorthanded Hurricanes team right now. Pick your poison at this point.
The hottest team on our list last week was the St. Louis Blues, who like their Central Division rival Avalanche are riding a nine-game win streak. St. Louis is looking to be an absolute threat this postseason, and that first round matchup between the Blues and Minnesota Wild is going to be a bloodbath. Home ice is key, and the Blues are making their case for it.
The team on the losing side this week was the Edmonton Oilers, which actually does not make a lot of sense. Of course, two spots is really not “losing” but this late in the season limited movement results in some drops being more noticeable than others. The Oilers went 2–1–0 last week, including back-to-back Mike Smith shutouts, and are 8–1–1 in their last ten. So what gives?
The team is in the top half of the league in all categories measured, so surely it’s not that? Well it’s almost entirely due to the Blues hitting a hot streak. The teams appeared to have swapped in our model due to the win streak, combined with the Dallas Stars having better underlying numbers. It’s a tight race and the TWCScore suggests the teams are on even playing fields.
Past Power Rankings
Check here for how teams have done over past weeks and stay tuned for upcoming power rankings. Note: Week 11 was skipped and combined with Week 12 due to a lack of games.