TWC NHL Playoff Power Rankings 2023–24: Week 1

Finally, after a gruelling 1,312 games of regular season hockey, we’ve arrived at the 2024 NHL Stanley Cup Playoffs. With the bottom 16 teams eliminated, we’re down to the top 16 teams in the world, competing for the Stanley Cup. After just over a week of playoff action, how have the teams in this elite group performed so far?

The TWC NHL Playoff Power Rankings can tell us who’s been up to the task so far, and who needs to pick it up if they want to have any chance to win it all.

TWC Power Rankings explained

If you’re new to our power rankings, this is how it all works.

Here at TWC, we use a statistical model to effectively rank teams on a week-to-week basis. The model takes into effect winning percentages, CF%, SCF%, HDCF% as well as SV%. Each statistical category is weighed and scored differently, giving each team a unique TWC Score that determines their ranking after each week. The formula puts the highest emphasis on winning percentages over other statistics. All numbers are taken in all situations, to incorporate special teams into the fray.

We got some excellent feedback over the course of last season from our readers as to how we could improve this model moving forward. This year we have slightly altered the weightings of the statistical categories, but also re-worked the recency component to make sure that each week the teams that are riding hot streaks are more appropriately demonstrated in the rankings.

Don’t like where your team is ranked? Unfortunately, they will have to turn it around on the ice, as we take zero personal opinions into effect.

Have any suggestions for the TWC Power Rankings for next season? Leave us a comment and let us know. Without further ado, this week’s power rankings are below!

Week 1 NHL Playoff Power Rankings

Rank	Change	Team	Team Name	Last Week	Record	TWCScore
1	–		Carolina Hurricanes	3-0	3-0	959.8
2	–		Florida Panthers	3-0	3-0	958.2
3	–		New York Rangers	2-0	2-0	899.1
4	–		Vegas Golden Knights	2-0	2-0	856.9
5	–		Colorado Avalanche	1-1	1-1	703.5
6	–		Vancouver Canucks	1-1	1-1	696.5
7	–		Edmonton Oilers	1-1	1-1	689.3
8	–		Boston Bruins	2-1	2-1	660.6
9	–		Toronto Maple Leafs	1-2	1-2	620.8
10	–		Los Angeles Kings	1-1	1-1	582
11	–		Nashville Predators	1-1	1-1	574.9
12	–		Winnipeg Jets	1-1	1-1	565.4
13	–		Dallas Stars	0-2	0-2	418
14	–		Washington Capitals	0-2	0-2	378.6
15	–		Tampa Bay Lightning	0-3	0-3	320.4
16	–		New York Islanders	0-3	0-3	319.9

Naturally, the undefeated teams lead the way in this first edition. The Carolina Hurricanes and Florida Panthers lead the way, each on the verge of sweeping their first-round opponents. At the opposite end of the spectrum, their winless opponents fill in the bottom two positions.

The Panthers and Hurricanes both have dominated possession and led their opponents in scoring chances too. With solid goaltending to round out their performance, both of these teams look to be cruising through round one.

In the more closely matched series, the differences in rankings become more interesting. Despite an even win-loss record, the Avalanche are in fifth place, impressively reaching that height in the standings despite the worst-ranked save percentage in the playoffs.

If their goaltending can round into form, watch for the Avs to leap up these standings.

Similarly, the Canucks are tied in their series against the underdog Nashville Predators, despite dominant possession numbers and significantly out-chancing their opponent. If they keep playing as they have, and their backup goaltenders can keep up with the playoff pace while Thatcher Demko is hurt, the Canucks are another team poised to move up the ranks.

On the flip side, the Preds are just hanging on. Without creating more chances, they will fall further down the ranks.

In the closest series so far, the Boston Bruins and Toronto Maple Leafs are right up against each other in the standings. It may feel like the Bruins are destined to once again take the series given the two squads’ recent history and their early series lead, but the stats tell another story.

Despite the losing record, the Leafs’ underlying numbers have been better across the board. But Jeremy Swayman and Linus Ullmark have been stellar, and the Bruins have the top save percentage early on in these playoffs.

The Bruins will need to play better all-around hockey to find themselves in the top part of these rankings in the weeks to come.

Finally, Dallas and Vegas are in a heavyweight battle expected to go the distance. Yet the Stars are down 2–0 to start the series. Interestingly, they have strong underlying numbers but are picking up losses as a result of their league-worst save percentage so far.

Without improvements defensively and in the crease, this series could be over well before most expected.

It’s still early yet, and these rankings are likely to change dramatically week-to-week, be sure to keep checking back in on these rankings as the weeks progress to know which teams are in the driver’s seat of their series.