TWC NHL Power Rankings 2021–22: Week 1

The TWC Power Rankings are back! After the first week of the NHL season, there are some early risers and fallers, but with such a small sample size so far, there will be lots of movement to come.

If you’re new to our power rankings, this is how it works.

Here at TWC, we use a statistical model to effectively rank teams on a week to week basis. The model takes into effect winning percentages, CF%, SCF%, HDCF% as well as SV%. Each statistical category is weighed and scored differently, giving each team a unique TWC Score that determines their ranking after each week. The formula puts the highest emphasis on winning percentages over other statistics. All numbers are taken in all situations, to incorporate special teams into the fray.

We got some excellent feedback over the course of last season from our readers as to how we could improve this model moving forward. We have slightly altered the weightings of the statistical categories, but also added a large recency component to make sure that each week the teams that are riding hot streaks are more appropriately demonstrated in the rankings. 

Don’t like where your team is ranked? Unfortunately, they will have to turn it around on the ice, as we take zero personal opinions into effect.

Have any suggestions for the TWC Power Rankings for next season? Leave us a comment and let us know!

Rank	Change	Team	Team Name	Last Week	Record	TWCScore
1	–		San Jose Sharks	1-0-0	1-0-0	1045.4
2	–		Buffalo Sabres	2-0-0	2-0-0	1044.9
3	–		Boston Bruins	1-0-0	1-0-0	1018.4
4	–		Carolina Hurricanes	2-0-0	2-0-0	1006.2
5	–		New Jersey Devils	1-0-0	1-0-0	996.8
6	–		Minnesota Wild	2-0-0	2-0-0	989.8
7	–		Florida Panthers	2-0-0	2-0-0	983.6
8	–		Edmonton Oilers	2-0-0	2-0-0	979.4
9	–		Columbus Blue Jackets	2-0-0	2-0-0	950.2
10	–		Pittsburgh Penguins	2-0-1	2-0-1	935.8
11	–		St Louis Blues	1-0-0	1-0-0	905.5
12	–		Toronto Maple Leafs	2-1-0	2-1-0	832.9
13	–		Tampa Bay Lightning	2-1-0	2-1-0	815
14	–		Detroit Red Wings	1-0-1	1-0-1	785.3
15	–		Colorado Avalanche	1-1-0	1-1-0	780.3
16	–		Ottawa Senators	2-1-0	2-1-0	778.1
17	–		Washington Capitals	1-0-1	1-0-1	774
18	–		Los Angeles Kings	1-1-0	1-1-0	753.6
19	–		Vancouver Canucks	1-1-1	1-1-1	715.4
20	–		New York Rangers	1-1-1	1-1-1	676.8
21	–		Seattle Kraken	1-1-1	1-1-1	670.9
22	–		Anaheim Ducks	1-1-0	1-1-0	669.9
23	–		Vegas Golden Knights	1-1-0	1-1-0	653.9
24	–		Philadelphia Flyers	0-0-1	0-0-1	647
25	–		Dallas Stars	1-2-0	1-2-0	586.6
26	–		Arizona Coyotes	0-1-1	0-1-1	553.8
27	–		Calgary Flames	0-1-0	0-1-0	453.6
28	–		Chicago Blackhawks	0-2-1	0-2-1	437.1
29	–		Nashville Predators	0-2-0	0-2-0	407.6
30	–		Montreal Canadiens	0-3-0	0-3-0	367.5
31	–		Winnipeg Jets	0-2-0	0-2-0	351.9
32	–		New York Islanders	0-2-0	0-2-0	349.8

The 2021–22 NHL season is finally here, and although the offseason was shorter than in normal years, the league looks to be back in regular form. Fans are filling stadiums, the teams are back in their normal divisional alignment, and after just six short days of regular season games, fans are already disappointed in their teams (unless you are a Buffalo Sabres or Seattle Kraken fan).

The TWC Power Rankings are back this year and as mentioned back to an overall league ranking. The temporary alignment of last season is no longer and all 32 teams are back stacking up against each other on a weekly basis. The team at TWC has not significantly altered the model since last year, maintaining the recency bias and ranking of statistical categories noted in the opening. We are hoping to best represent the league each week, and who is trending up and who is trending down.

A bigger disclaimer on Week 1 of the TWC Power Rankings is that all teams have at least played one game, but most teams only have that one game on their record. Therefore, you are bound to see some wonky results starting off the season.

The Calgary Flames naturally are a good example of this. After, yet again, an opening night loss against the Edmonton Oilers by a 5–2 score, the Flames are ranked 27th in the league, despite having the second best CF% in the league, and the third best SCF% and HDCF%. The winning percentage, which in their case is 0%, highly outweighs their strong possession metrics in the loss.

The opposite can be said for those teams at the top of the rankings, like the San Jose Sharks, Buffalo Sabres, Boston Bruins, Carolina Hurricanes and many more. They all are undefeated, causing just their underlying numbers to separate them at the top. After another week, these scores will stabilize and allow the teams to distribute themselves more evenly.

Although the real meat and potatoes happens next week when this redistribution occurs, a few key highlights to note from Week 1:

• The Sabres started the season 2–0–0 just like everyone expected them to (not). When there are such low expectations for a team, it’s easy to overachieve and to enjoy providing everyone wrong. Let’s see how long this lasts.
• After losing a number of key players like Dougie Hamilton, Alex Nedeljkovic, and Petr Mrazek, the Hurricanes look to be up to their old tricks and establishing themselves as a contender yet again. 
• The Florida Panthers look to be living up to the hype to start the year, while the Edmonton Oilers look to have made just the right amount of forward adjustments to make their group more evenly distributed. 
• The Montreal Canadiens and Winnipeg Jets have to be the two biggest shockers from the first week. A combined 0–5–0 to start the year, it’s a crap shoot as to who was more disappointing. The Jets lost to both the Anaheim Ducks and San Jose Sharks, who may just be a bit better than everyone suggested. The Canadiens lost to the Toronto Maple Leafs, Buffalo Sabres, and New York Rangers in a busy first few days of the season. The bigger disappointment has to be the Jets as they are icing their full lineup. The Canadiens are coming off a long season, and are playing without Carey Price and Shea Weber, in addition to not having Jesperi Kotkaniemi and Phillip Danault in their lineup as offseason casualties.

Stay tuned in the coming weeks for more TWC Power Rankings!