A month into the season and we now have some established contenders, quickly rising teams, and perhaps a few pretenders that are now sticking out of the crowd. A few teams saw perfect weeks and others saw winless ones. How did each team’s on-ice play affect their spot in the rankings? Let’s find out.
TWC Power Rankings explained
If you’re new to our power rankings, this is how it all works.
Here at TWC, we use a statistical model to effectively rank teams on a week to week basis. The model takes into effect winning percentages, CF%, SCF%, HDCF% as well as SV%. Each statistical category is weighed and scored differently, giving each team a unique TWC Score that determines their ranking after each week. The formula puts the highest emphasis on winning percentages over other statistics. All numbers are taken in all situations, to incorporate special teams into the fray.
We got some excellent feedback over the course of last season from our readers as to how we could improve this model moving forward. We have slightly altered the weightings of the statistical categories, but also added a large recency component to make sure that each week the teams that are riding hot streaks are more appropriately demonstrated in the rankings.
Don’t like where your team is ranked? Unfortunately, they will have to turn it around on the ice, as we take zero personal opinions into effect.
Have any suggestions for the TWC Power Rankings for next season? Leave us a comment and let us know. Without further ado, this week’s power rankings are below!
Week 4 NHL Power Rankings
|Rank||Change||Team||Team Name||Last Week||Record||TWCScore|
|6||-1||St Louis Blues||1-1-1||7-2-1||754.6|
|7||+11||Toronto Maple Leafs||3-0-0||7-4-1||733|
|8||+5||Tampa Bay Lightning||2-0-1||6-3-2||723.5|
|10||-3||New Jersey Devils||1-1-1||5-3-2||720.1|
|11||+3||Columbus Blue Jackets||2-0-0||7-3-0||719.8|
|13||-3||San Jose Sharks||1-1-1||6-4-1||705.5|
|18||-10||New York Rangers||0-1-2||6-3-3||673.8|
|19||+6||Los Angeles Kings||2-0-0||5-5-1||666.1|
|20||+1||New York Islanders||2-1-0||5-3-2||664.6|
|26||-3||Vegas Golden Knights||2-2-0||6-6-0||614|
|27||-5||Detroit Red Wings||2-2-0||6-5-2||610.1|
In the battle of the two NHL titans so far this season, the Florida Panthers came out victorious with a dominant regulation win against the Carolina Hurricanes. The win propelled them into top spot in the NHL, the top spot in this week’s TWC NHL Power Rankings, as well as leaving them the only remaining undefeated team in regulation. Not a bad week at all for the Panthers.
They currently sport the best SV% in the league at all situations, thanks to the efforts of Sergei Bobrovsky and Spencer Knight which is really helping boost them up the rankings. That being said, their next highest rank in the categories measured are ninth place in CF% and xGF%. The Hurricanes are actually ranked higher in every other statistical category compared to the Panthers. This shows on the rankings when looking at the TWCScore for Florida and Carolina, just 2.3 points separate the two and the majority of that is coming from the winning percentage. Will be interesting to watch these two teams over the next few weeks, as Carolina’s underlying numbers may give them the slight edge over Florida if their records continue to remain close.
Speaking of dominant underlying numbers, the Edmonton Oilers are offensive juggernauts.Yes, juggernauts. With just 0.9 TWCScore points behind the Hurricanes, the Oilers aren’t just third in our rankings, they round out an absolutely dominant top three. The Oilers have the top xGF% in the NHL, as well as top-ten rankings in SCF% and HDCF%. You can look to Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl for helping boost those numbers. The only thing “hurting” this team? SV%. It’s hardly something to complain about, as they have the 8th best SV% in the league thanks to a resurgence from Mikko Koskinen. The Oilers may have finally figured things out.
Imagine going into Edmonton and being embarrassed by McDavid, and then immediately having to drive down the road a few hours and get steam rolled by the Calgary Flames. That is what happened to the New York Rangers this weekend, and something that may continue throughout the rest of the season for other teams. The Calgary Flames remained in fourth position this week, despite going 1–0–2. They extended their point streak to ten games and have only lost once in regulation this season—to the Edmonton Oilers in the season opener. The Darryl Sutter effect is real, as the Flames rank second in CF%, xGF%, first in SCF%, and third in HDCF% and SV%. Just madness in Alberta right now.
Rounding out the top-five teams this week is the newest team, the Minnesota Wild. Three straight wins have pushed them to first place in the Central Division over the sixth place St. Louis Blues. The team is being led up front by none other than Kirill Kaprizov, but are also getting distributed scoring up and down their lineup. Cam Talbot has once again been stellar to start the season, starting with a 7–2–0 record. The Wild proved last season they no longer were just a middle of the pack team, and continue to do so to start the year.
The biggest gainers this week were the Toronto Maple Leafs, who used five straight victories to move up to second in the Atlantic Division. The Maple Leafs had a tough start to the season, but looked more and more like they just needed a few bounces to go right for them to kick start the engine. Auston Matthews has started scoring, along with John Tavares, and even though Mitch Marner was receiving the most flack from fans and media, he is currently sitting as a point-per-game player for the team. Their win streak has catapulted them up eleven spots to seventh overall, and the climb will most likely continue as the weeks progress.
Switching gears to the biggest loser, it is unfortunately the Buffalo Sabres. After finally ridding themselves of the Jack Eichel saga, the Sabres still couldn’t catch a break going 0–2–1 and falling fourteen spots. Their highest ranked statistical category is surprisingly an eleventh spot in SV%, but the rest fall outside the top half of the league. Here is to hoping it was just one bad week!
Other notables from this week’s rankings:
- The Tampa Bay Lightning finally look to be trending in the right direction after a 2–0–1 week. The back-to-back champs are coming off two long postseason runs, in addition to losing a significant portion of their forward group this summer, so it’s not surprising that it took a bit longer for the team to find its groove.
- Oher undefeated teams this week include the Columbus Blue Jackets, Anaheim Ducks and Los Angeles Kings. How about Troy Terry with the Ducks? All of the hype coming into the season was for Trevor Zegras and Jamie Drysdale, but Terry has been worth the price of admission and more. They moved up ten spots, just shy of the Leafs’ jump.
- The Rangers took their Alberta beating hard, falling to 0–1–2 on the week and dropping ten spots. I’m sure they are just happy to get home.
- The Arizona Coyotes finally won their first game this season, but the bigger story was Seattle’s collapse. How long before the Philipp Grubauer contract starts looking much worse than it already does?
Past Power Rankings
Check here for how teams have done over past weeks and stay tuned for upcoming power rankings.