A new number one team, some new members of the top-five, and a lot of movement across all tiers in Week 8 of the TWC NHL Power Rankings. Did your team keep pace or fall down our list?
TWC Power Rankings explained
If you’re new to our power rankings, this is how it all works.
Here at TWC, we use a statistical model to effectively rank teams on a week to week basis. The model takes into effect winning percentages, CF%, SCF%, HDCF% as well as SV%. Each statistical category is weighed and scored differently, giving each team a unique TWC Score that determines their ranking after each week. The formula puts the highest emphasis on winning percentages over other statistics. All numbers are taken in all situations, to incorporate special teams into the fray.
We got some excellent feedback over the course of last season from our readers as to how we could improve this model moving forward. We have slightly altered the weightings of the statistical categories, but also added a large recency component to make sure that each week the teams that are riding hot streaks are more appropriately demonstrated in the rankings.
Don’t like where your team is ranked? Unfortunately, they will have to turn it around on the ice, as we take zero personal opinions into effect.
Have any suggestions for the TWC Power Rankings for next season? Leave us a comment and let us know. Without further ado, this week’s power rankings are below!
Week 7 NHL Power Rankings
|Rank||Change||Team||Team Name||Last Week||Record||TWCScore|
|4||-2||Toronto Maple Leafs||1-1-1||17-7-2||766.7|
|5||+2||Tampa Bay Lightning||3-0-1||15-5-4||766.2|
|7||+2||New York Rangers||3-0-0||16-4-3||759.2|
|16||+4||Vegas Golden Knights||2-1-0||14-10-0||678.4|
|18||-2||St Louis Blues||1-1-1||12-8-4||675.7|
|19||+2||San Jose Sharks||2-2-0||13-11-1||667.6|
|20||-1||Los Angeles Kings||1-1-1||10-9-4||662.9|
|21||+2||Detroit Red Wings||3-0-0||13-9-3||652.9|
|22||-8||New Jersey Devils||0-3-0||9-9-4||651.8|
|23||-10||Columbus Blue Jackets||1-3-0||13-10-0||649.8|
|28||–||New York Islanders||0-0-3||5-10-5||556.6|
After a few weeks of Carolina Hurricanes being our number one team, their small step back has finally caught up with them as the Florida Panthers are your new number one team this week. Going a perfect 3–0–0—including some miraculous comeback victories—the Panthers find themselves once again leading the NHL. Not only do they have the best record in the NHL, they also have the top ranked CF% in all situations, and are second in xGF% and third in SCF%. The Panthers were never really gone, in fact they haven’t left the top-five this season, but they now have set the standard after the past seven days.
Speaking of the Hurricanes, as mentioned in last week’s rankings, the Hurricanes went from absolute dominance in our list, to just narrowly taking the top spot, to finally hitting a bit of reality. The Canes are 5–4–1 in their last 10 games, but were just 1–2–0 last week. The team now finds itself actually third in their division, but they are also top-five in almost every category measured in our model which helps their rankings here. Nothing wrong with where they are ranked this week.
Moving up a single spot from last week, the Calgary Flames found their way to the top of the Pacific Division and Western Conference after a 3–1–0 week. We have spoken about the Flames a lot over the past few weeks, but their run of strong underlying numbers did not falter this past week and is a big reason why they find themselves in the third position.
The Toronto Maple Leafs took a tiny step back compared to the previous week after going 1–1–1. They still have the best xGF% at all situations, and package that with top-five stats in all categories measured and it’s no surprise that Toronto remains in the top-five.
Rounding out the top-five are the Tampa Bay Lightning. Achieving their highest ranking this season has been a steady uphill climb, but they are finally making some noise. The Lightning have the best HDCF% in the NHL by a wide margin, and are now on a three game win streak and a 7–2–1 record in their last ten games. They are only in third place in the Atlantic Division, for now, behind the Panthers and Leafs which is going to make it even more difficult for other teams to catch up.
A really interesting observation from this past week’s rankings are the high-flying streaking teams. The Minnesota Wild, New York Rangers, and Dallas Stars are all on six-game winning streaks, while the Detroit Red Wings are winners in five straight. Their rankings in our model? Sixth, seventh, eleventh, and twenty first respectively. Even with the recency component playing a factor, why were all of these teams not slightly higher?
The Wild and Rangers are maybe both not as bad, as sixth and seventh aren’t terrible spots. This is more about the model ranking the other five teams higher based on their underlying numbers.
Dallas had a rougher start to the season, and even after going 6–0–0, they still are just 12–7–2 on the season. Their winning percentage is what is bogging them down the most, in addition to them still ranking just sixth in the Central Division.
The Detroit Red Wings are a bit more interesting. Currently fourth in the Atlantic Division, the Red Wings should be much higher than 21st on our list? Digging into the numbers, the team is 30th in CF% & SCF%, 24th in xGF%, 28th in HDCF%, and 21st in SV%. The team seems to be winning games in which they were statistically the worst team. If their record was even slightly worse, they would find themselves further down our list. A bit of a redundant statement, but this shows more context as to why records are not everything on our list.
Other notables from this week’s rankings:
- The Nashville Predators were our biggest gainer this week, up five spots to 17th overall, after going 2–1–0
- The Columbus Blue Jackets didn’t fare as well as the Preds, going 1–3–0 and dropping a massive ten spots to 23rd
- The New Jersey Devils didn’t suffer as bad of a drop as the Blue Jackets, but a 0–3–0 record moved them eight spots in the wrong direction
- The Vegas Golden Knights are getting closer to a full healthy roster, and were up four spots to 16th place this past week
- The New York Islanders, who are now 0–7–3 in their last ten games, didn’t actually move this past week but still find themselves in the bottom-five
Past Power Rankings
Week 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7
Check here for how teams have done over past weeks and stay tuned for upcoming power rankings.
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