Finally, there’s a bit of stability after five full weeks of the NHL season. The first few weeks of a data-driven power rankings model is guaranteed to be turbulent, but there’s definitely clearer separation building between teams. Not a lot of movement at the top of the rankings, but there were a number of moves in the middle of the pack. Some good, some bad, but a much different looking layout in Week 5 of the TWC NHL Power Rankings.
TWC Power Rankings explained
If you’re new to our power rankings, this is how it all works.
Here at TWC, we use a statistical model to effectively rank teams on a week to week basis. The model takes into effect winning percentages, CF%, SCF%, HDCF% as well as SV%. Each statistical category is weighed and scored differently, giving each team a unique TWC Score that determines their ranking after each week. The formula puts the highest emphasis on winning percentages over other statistics. All numbers are taken in all situations, to incorporate special teams into the fray.
We got some excellent feedback over the course of last season from our readers as to how we could improve this model moving forward. We have slightly altered the weightings of the statistical categories, but also added a large recency component to make sure that each week the teams that are riding hot streaks are more appropriately demonstrated in the rankings.
Don’t like where your team is ranked? Unfortunately, they will have to turn it around on the ice, as we take zero personal opinions into effect.
Have any suggestions for the TWC Power Rankings for next season? Leave us a comment and let us know. Without further ado, this week’s power rankings are below!
Week 5 NHL Power Rankings
|Rank||Change||Team||Team Name||Last Week||Record||TWCScore|
|7||–||Toronto Maple Leafs||3-1-0||10-5-1||749.8|
|8||–||Tampa Bay Lightning||1-0-1||7-3-3||730.9|
|12||+6||New York Rangers||3-0-0||9-3-3||713.1|
|13||-7||St Louis Blues||1-2-1||8-4-2||713|
|14||-4||New Jersey Devils||2-1-1||7-4-3||710.7|
|15||+4||Los Angeles Kings||3-0-1||8-5-2||697.5|
|18||-7||Columbus Blue Jackets||0-2-0||7-5-0||673.5|
|19||+7||Vegas Golden Knights||3-0-0||9-6-0||670.8|
|21||-8||San Jose Sharks||1-2-0||7-6-1||659.5|
|23||-3||New York Islanders||0-1-0||5-4-2||639.9|
|24||+3||Detroit Red Wings||2-1-0||8-6-2||636.6|
The Carolina Hurricanes return to the top of the standings after a 2–1–0 week. The only team to obtain a TWCScore above 800, the Canes are back to their old tricks of using balanced scoring and strong underlying numbers to boost their case in our model.
The Edmonton Oilers, who after going a mediocre 2–2–0 last week, used their offensive dominance to jump up into second spot. Their defensive play has been a little underwhelming, but when you can outscore any team in the NHL, it’s easier to stomach giving up multiple goals in a game. The real MVP of the season so far has been Leon Draisaitl who has played 14 games and collected 15 goals and 16 assists. Domination station in Edmonton.
Our number one team last week, the Florida Panthers, went winless this week but only managed to drop two spots. After starting the season with an 11-game point streak and not losing in regulation, the team has not won since—picking up two loser points across four games. Just a bit of a bump in the road for an otherwise solid team.
One of the real hot teams this past week was the Washington Capitals, who after going 4–0–0 jumped up into the fourth overall position. The team is fourth in the league in xGF%, which is helping them the most compared to other categories, but the team doesn’t fall out of the top half of the league in all other categories measured. Things look to be clicking yet again in the Capitol.
Rounding out the top-five yet again is the Minnesota Wild. A solid 2–1–0 week has them leading in the central division. Their on-ice results are impressive across the board and their wins have been earned.
One of the more interesting teams this past week has to be the Toronto Maple Leafs. After a rough start, the team is now 8–2–0 in their last ten. What is most surprising is they are dominating in most of the statistical categories measured in the model. The team is second in CF% and first in xGF% and SCF%. The team is able to maintain possession and use it to generate a large volume of quality scoring chances. The only reason the team isn’t ranked higher is their five regulation losses, causing their winning percentage to be a bit lower than teams above them. If the trend continues then watch out again for the Leafs.
The two hottest teams this week in terms of movement were the Anaheim Ducks and Vegas Golden Knights. The Ducks went 3–0–0 and are now riding a seven-game win streak. Not exactly what many predicted to start the season, but John Gibson and Troy Terry are leading the Ducks to a whole bunch of early season success. Not quite as hot as the Ducks, but the Golden Knights also went 3–0–0 to bolster and already strong Pacific Division bunch. With the Oilers, Calgary Flames, Ducks, Golden Knights, and Kings all playing well to start the season, this may be the scariest division in the NHL.
Other notables from this week’s rankings:
- The Winnipeg Jets jumped up six spots after going 2–0–1. They are 7–1–2 in their past ten, and sit just one point back of the Wild.
- The St. Louis Blues, Columbus Blue Jackets, Philadelphia Flyers, and San Jose Sharks all did not have their best weeks. They make up the biggest losers in terms of positioning in our rankings.
- The Pacific Northwest is not looking so good after all. The Vancouver Canucks and Seattle Kraken went a combined 0–6–1 the past week and find themselves in a massive hole in the Pacific Division. It would take a miracle to get them both out at this rate.
Past Power Rankings
Check here for how teams have done over past weeks and stay tuned for upcoming power rankings.