Power Rankings

TWC NHL Power Rankings 2021–22: Week 15

A new team has claimed top spot in this week’s TWC NHL Power Rankings. The teams at the very top and very bottom have started to separate from the pack, and it is getting harder each week to climb up the rankings. Week 15 of the TWC NHL Power Rankings is one you cannot miss.

TWC Power Rankings explained

If you’re new to our power rankings, this is how it all works.

Here at TWC, we use a statistical model to effectively rank teams on a week to week basis. The model takes into effect winning percentages, CF%, SCF%, HDCF% as well as SV%. Each statistical category is weighed and scored differently, giving each team a unique TWC Score that determines their ranking after each week. The formula puts the highest emphasis on winning percentages over other statistics. All numbers are taken in all situations, to incorporate special teams into the fray.

We got some excellent feedback over the course of last season from our readers as to how we could improve this model moving forward. We have slightly altered the weightings of the statistical categories, but also added a large recency component to make sure that each week the teams that are riding hot streaks are more appropriately demonstrated in the rankings.

Don’t like where your team is ranked? Unfortunately, they will have to turn it around on the ice, as we take zero personal opinions into effect.

Have any suggestions for the TWC Power Rankings for next season? Leave us a comment and let us know. Without further ado, this week’s power rankings are below!

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Week 14 NHL Power Rankings

RankChangeTeamTeam NameLast WeekRecordTWCScore
Colorado Avalanche4-0-028-8-3782.5
Carolina Hurricanes2-1-027-9-2782.4
Florida Panthers2-2-028-9-5776.7
Tampa Bay Lightning2-1-028-10-5770.4
Toronto Maple Leafs1-1-025-10-3769.8
Pittsburgh Penguins4-0-026-10-5758.7
Boston Bruins2-1-024-12-2746.7
Minnesota Wild2-0-124-10-3737.8
Washington Capitals2-1-023-10-9718.9
New York Rangers2-1-027-11-4713.6
St Louis Blues3-0-025-11-5713.1
Calgary Flames1-1-018-12-6712.5
Nashville Predators2-2-026-14-3708.7
Vegas Golden Knights1-1-024-15-2698.6
Los Angeles Kings1-3-021-16-5693.4
Dallas Stars2-1-020-16-2687.5
Winnipeg Jets0-2-217-14-7665.6
San Jose Sharks1-2-021-19-2660.9
Edmonton Oilers1-1-019-16-2660.8
Anaheim Ducks1-1-020-16-7655.8
Vancouver Canucks1-1-118-19-4636.8
New Jersey Devils1-2-015-20-5630.6
New York Islanders3-1-014-14-6630.4
Detroit Red Wings1-1-118-18-6610.5
Columbus Blue Jackets1-2-018-20-1601.5
Chicago Blackhawks0-1-215-19-7596.3
Seattle Kraken3-1-013-24-4574.1
Philadelphia Flyers0-3-113-20-8570.3
Ottawa Senators1-2-112-20-3556.2
Buffalo Sabres2-1-113-21-7553.8
Montreal Canadiens1-1-28-25-7504.8
Arizona Coyotes2-2-010-26-4502.1

The Western Conference is making a comeback. After a few weeks of seeing Eastern teams absolutely dominate the top of the rankings, the Colorado Avalanche have moved into top spot over Carolina Hurricanes. They are only ahead by the slimmest of margins, but after a perfect 4–0–0 week, the Avalanche deserve the honours. They’ve been on an incredible run lately and Florida’s continued struggles on the road have resulted in a slight drop in their overall analytics.

However, the Eastern juggernauts occupy the next six slots in the power rankings, with the Hurricanes and Panthers continueng to jockey for the top spot overall. Only two Western teams appear in the top-10 and after that, it’s a dog fight.

An interesting storyline from this week was the renewal of the Battle of Alberta between teh Calgary Flames and Edmonton Oilers. The Oilers were reeling but came out on top to end their losing streak. However, the Flames absolutely dominated the game in every category, which kept their overall ranking fairly high. Despite the win and hopefully a turn in the right direction for the Oilers, their underlying numbers are rough.

Calgary Flames0.58353.7355.3855.0353.7954.4191.411.002
Edmonton Oilers0.54151.4250.5449.3752.6748.7889.670.996

Ahead of tonight’s Flames contest, the bookies have predicted a heavy favourite, with Betway Sports pricing the Flames at -105 and Blues at +185 to win the game in regulation, with an overtime decision being priced at +320.

The Oilers are trailing by a decent margin in points percentage, and are barely treading water in possession metrics Corsi, scoring chances, and high danger chances. Their expected goal ratio has improved but they allow a ton of goal against due to poor goaltending. What really doesn’t help is their PDO, an indicator of luck, is right around the 1.000 mark, which means they aren’t just in a rut of unlucky bounces right now. It will be a grind to get back into the playoff picture in the West.

Another huge storyline from the past couple weeks is the return of Evgeni Malkin for the Penguins. He has been incredible in his return, putting up seven points in seven games and powering the Penguins to a perfect 4–0–0 week. They moved up one spot in the rankings to sixth overall.

The St. Louis Blues, this week’s biggest riser going up three spots, also had a perfect week going 3–0–0. The only other team to pick up points in all their games this past week was the Minnesota Wild who went 2–0–1.

On the other side of the spectrum, three teams were winless last week: the Winnipeg Jets who dropped one spots after going 0–2–2, the Chicago Blackhawks that went 0–1–2, and the Philadelphia Flyers who went 0–3–1. Things are starting to look very grim for the Flyers. Carter Hart has struggled, they can’t seem to pick up any wins, and are plummeting down the standings. They could be entering tear-down territory and with several potential deadline sells including captain Claude Giroux, they are going to be a very interesting team to watch despite how bad they’ve been on the ice.

The top fallers from this week are the Toronto Maple Leafs, Florida Panthers, and Nashville Predators. All are great teams who are still doing well in the rankings and the standings, but they all went .500 last week. Their fall down two spots the rankings is due to the teams around them all posting winning records.

Past Power Rankings

Check here for how teams have done over past weeks and stay tuned for upcoming power rankings.

Week 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14

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