Power Rankings

TWC NHL Power Rankings 2021–22: Week 19

Week 19 of the TWC NHL Power Rankings brings a few surprises to the table. The top three remain the same for the first time in a few weeks, while some familiar faces make their way up the list. Add in a few streaking teams, and this week makes for an interesting chapter in the 2021–22 season. 

TWC Power Rankings explained

If you’re new to our power rankings, this is how it all works.

Here at TWC, we use a statistical model to effectively rank teams on a week to week basis. The model takes into effect winning percentages, CF%, SCF%, HDCF% as well as SV%. Each statistical category is weighed and scored differently, giving each team a unique TWC Score that determines their ranking after each week. The formula puts the highest emphasis on winning percentages over other statistics. All numbers are taken in all situations, to incorporate special teams into the fray.

We got some excellent feedback over the course of last season from our readers as to how we could improve this model moving forward. We have slightly altered the weightings of the statistical categories, but also added a large recency component to make sure that each week the teams that are riding hot streaks are more appropriately demonstrated in the rankings.

Don’t like where your team is ranked? Unfortunately, they will have to turn it around on the ice, as we take zero personal opinions into effect.

Have any suggestions for the TWC Power Rankings for next season? Leave us a comment and let us know. Without further ado, this week’s power rankings are below!

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Week 19 NHL Power Rankings

RankChangeTeamTeam NameLast WeekRecordTWCScore
Colorado Avalanche2-1-036-9-4795.4
Florida Panthers3-0-035-10-5790
Carolina Hurricanes2-0-134-11-4777.9
Tampa Bay Lightning1-0-032-11-6774.6
Toronto Maple Leafs2-1-032-13-3772.7
Calgary Flames3-0-029-13-6764.5
Pittsburgh Penguins1-2-031-13-8749.8
Minnesota Wild2-2-031-13-3737.8
New York Rangers2-0-132-13-5718.8
Boston Bruins1-1-128-17-4713.6
Los Angeles Kings2-1-026-17-7707.1
Washington Capitals2-0-028-15-9704.2
St Louis Blues2-0-129-14-6702.7
Edmonton Oilers4-1-028-19-3696.9
Dallas Stars2-1-027-20-2695
Vegas Golden Knights1-1-129-18-4691.9
Nashville Predators0-2-028-18-4684.6
Winnipeg Jets2-2-022-19-8657.5
Anaheim Ducks1-2-024-19-9648.7
San Jose Sharks0-2-122-22-5639.2
Vancouver Canucks1-1-023-22-6637.8
New York Islanders1-1-118-20-7625.3
Columbus Blue Jackets2-1-025-23-1621.4
Detroit Red Wings1-1-023-22-6619.7
New Jersey Devils0-1-017-28-5604.8
Chicago Blackhawks1-2-118-26-8585.8
Ottawa Senators1-2-118-26-5581.3
Philadelphia Flyers0-1-115-25-9565.9
Seattle Kraken0-3-016-31-4564.4
Buffalo Sabres1-3-016-27-8550.7
Arizona Coyotes1-1-013-33-4501.8
Montreal Canadiens2-0-010-33-7496.2

The Colorado Avalanche, Florida Panthers, and Carolina Hurricanes remain the top three teams this week. As we have progressed into the season, the three teams’ winning percentages have buoyed compared to the rest of the league.

That said, the gap between third and sixth is tantalizingly close, and there will be limited movement here as the season continues. As there is a clear separation for the top six teams this season, it’ll be interesting to watch how teams will end up moving within this natural tier that formed.

The best example of would have to be the Calgary Flames. Currently the hottest team in the league, the Flames are winners of nine in a row and have separated themselves atop the Pacific Division. In addition to that, the Flames hold the number one ranked CF%, xGF% & SCF%, in addition to the second ranked HDCF% and SV%. So why are they only ranked sixth, even after jumping two spots? With our model having a stronger P% component, the Flames are only ranked ninth in that department across the league. So in reality, their win streak plus their underlying numbers have pushed them three spots higher than their record shows. Still, the team is on fire. 

Among the rest of the top ten teams, the Tampa Bay Lightning jumped up one position into the top four after winning their lone game, while the New York Rangers also moved up one spot to ninth. The rest of the teams all fell one spot due to those teams making their moves up the rankings.

The biggest gainer of the week belonged to the other Albertan team. The Edmonton Oilers won five straight games under new coach Jay Woodcroft, before being blown out by the Minnesota Wild last night. If you ignore that game, the Oilers were on an absolute roll and look like a team almost reborn under new leadership. Their improved play helped them move up three spots to 14th overall in our rankings. 

On the other side of the coin, the Vegas Golden Knights and Nashville Predators both fell three spots after going a combined 1–3–1 last week. With a few teams around them having better records, this is to be expected. The Golden Knights’ underlying numbers are also all in the middle to lower end of the pack, which doesn’t help boost their ranking. That being said, both teams are still in the playoff bubble for now.

Other notables from this weeks’ ranking: 

  • In the bottom 15 teams, the only movement was the swapping of the Columbus Blue Jackets and Detroit Red Wings, as well as the Philadelphia Flyers and Seattle Kraken. It’s quiet at the bottom.
  • The St. Louis Blues went 2–0–1 and moved up two spots in the rankings to 13th overall. With their week the Blues moved into third place in the Central Division. 

Past Power Rankings

Check here for how teams have done over past weeks and stay tuned for upcoming power rankings. Note: Week 11 was skipped and combined with Week 12 due to a lack of games.

Week 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18

Ahead of tonight’s Flames contest, the bookies have predicted the Flames as the favourite, with Betway Sports pricing the Flames at -145 and the Jets at +255 to win the game in regulation, with an overtime decision being priced at +360.

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