This deep into the season, we are finally starting to see the TWC NHL Power Rankings start to level out. As a result of the COVID delays and postponements, this week brought only a few movers with more stagnant teams than not.
For the teams that had fewer games played, major differences in their on-ice stats would have to appear for movement. As seen this week, that was not the case. Not to mention the five teams that were sidelined completely. Only the teams with regular schedules saw appreciable changes, let’s see how it all breaks down.
TWC Power Rankings explained
If you’re new to our power rankings, this is how it all works.
Here at TWC, we use a statistical model to effectively rank teams on a week to week basis. The model takes into effect winning percentages, CF%, SCF%, HDCF% as well as SV%. Each statistical category is weighed and scored differently, giving each team a unique TWC Score that determines their ranking after each week. The formula puts the highest emphasis on winning percentages over other statistics. All numbers are taken in all situations, to incorporate special teams into the fray.
We got some excellent feedback over the course of last season from our readers as to how we could improve this model moving forward. We have slightly altered the weightings of the statistical categories, but also added a large recency component to make sure that each week the teams that are riding hot streaks are more appropriately demonstrated in the rankings.
Don’t like where your team is ranked? Unfortunately, they will have to turn it around on the ice, as we take zero personal opinions into effect.
Have any suggestions for the TWC Power Rankings for next season? Leave us a comment and let us know. Without further ado, this week’s power rankings are below!
Week 13 NHL Power Rankings
|Rank||Change||Team||Team Name||Last Week||Record||TWCScore|
|3||-1||Toronto Maple Leafs||1-0-1||22-8-3||775|
|5||–||Tampa Bay Lightning||2-1-0||23-9-5||758.1|
|8||+1||New York Rangers||2-1-0||23-9-4||724.7|
|13||+1||St Louis Blues||2-1-0||21-10-5||708|
|14||-1||Vegas Golden Knights||1-2-0||23-14-1||701.5|
|16||+1||Los Angeles Kings||1-1-0||17-13-5||683.7|
|20||–||San Jose Sharks||2-1-0||19-16-1||664.5|
|22||–||New Jersey Devils||1-2-0||14-17-5||637.9|
|23||–||Columbus Blue Jackets||1-2-0||16-16-1||615.8|
|24||–||New York Islanders||0-0-0||10-12-6||610.8|
|25||–||Detroit Red Wings||1-1-1||16-16-4||608.3|
Another week, another Carolina Hurricanes number one ranking. Despite going 1–0–1, the Canes were able to edge out the Florida Panthers slightly to retain the top spot. We talk about the team on a weekly basis now, so safe to say those guys are good.
Speaking of the Panthers, a 2–0–1 record allowed them to swap places with the Toronto Maple Leafs and take the second overall spot this week. With the second best points percentage in the league—in addition to a wealth of top ranks in the statistical categories measured in our model—the Panthers may not be ranked number one on our list but are among the league’s elite.
The Leafs, as mentioned, fell just a single spot to the third position this week. A 1–0–1 record (similarly to the Canes) dropped their overall TWCScore, but in the Leafs’ case it was just enough to drop them below the Panthers. Nothing to be concerned about there.
The Colorado Avalanche have arrived in the number four position, and as it turns out ended up being this week’s biggest mover. Going 3–0–0, and now 9–1–0 in their last ten games, the Avalanche moved up three positions. At the midway point of the season, a move like that in our model cannot go unnoticed. The team is fourth in points percentage, CF% and SCF%, which is really fueling their ranking here.
What is somewhat shocking for this team, is right now they hold the 26th ranked SV% in the league at all situations. Goaltending has somewhat been an area of concern for this team over the last few years, but most thought the addition of Darcy Kuemper would help them move past this.
Interestingly enough, the Avalanche are 29th in the league in goals saved above expected, but are second in expected goals against. Essentially the team is excellent at stopping the play get to the net, but are not great at stopping goals once they get there. Anyways, just some additional points to ponder, but the Avalanche are mightily good again.
Rounding out the top five this week are the Tampa Bay Lightning. A 2–1–0 week got them into a tie for first place in the hotly contested Atlantic Division, but the Panthers still hold two games in hand. The fight for first place in that division will be extremely critical as the second and third place teams will be in a dog fight come the first round.
Moving down the list, we run into the biggest losers this past week: the Calgary Flames. We talked about them a lot in previous weeks, with last week highlighting them playing the Panthers, Lightning, and Canes with a back-to-back set in the mix. Well, that didn’t go well for them. They lost all three games in decisive manner, and are now just 3–6–1 in their last ten. Not great.
Speaking of struggling Alberta teams, the same can be said for the Edmonton Oilers who were the next biggest loser going 0–2–0 last week. They are now 2–6–2 in their previous ten games and like the Flames are falling down the Pacific Division. After being in first for most of the season, the Oilers now sit outside of the playoff picture. What is in that Alberta water?
Other notables from this week’s rankings:
- The Minnesota Wild won two games last week and moved up two spots into the tenth overall position. The Central Division is getting scary as the Wild have 44 points, but are in a tie for third in the division behind the Nashville Predators, St. Louis Blues, and Avalanche.
- The Pittsburgh Penguins’ win streak came to an end, but a 2–1–0 week kept them in the sixth spot this week
- The Boston Bruins went 2–1–0, but actually dropped two spots. Although they rank high in most statistical categories, their middle of the pack points percentage is pushing them down. A team to keep an eye on next week.
- As teased in the opener, from 20th through 32nd, there was absolutely no movement at all. Mostly due to the fact that five of those teams didn’t play a single game, but also because as the season progresses those teams with lower P% and bottom ranked stats end up having to make a massive change to reflect in the model. We saw this with the Vancouver Canucks, who even after winning seven straight games only moved up to the low 20s in rankings. Hopefully we can see more of those streaks as the season moves forward.
Past Power Rankings
Check here for how teams have done over past weeks and stay tuned for upcoming power rankings.