A reigning champ, a worthy contender, and a number of red hot teams on the rise. Week 7 of the TWC NHL Power Rankings comes with some surprises and a lot of moving pieces both up and down on the board.
TWC Power Rankings explained
If you’re new to our power rankings, this is how it all works.
Here at TWC, we use a statistical model to effectively rank teams on a week to week basis. The model takes into effect winning percentages, CF%, SCF%, HDCF% as well as SV%. Each statistical category is weighed and scored differently, giving each team a unique TWC Score that determines their ranking after each week. The formula puts the highest emphasis on winning percentages over other statistics. All numbers are taken in all situations, to incorporate special teams into the fray.
We got some excellent feedback over the course of last season from our readers as to how we could improve this model moving forward. We have slightly altered the weightings of the statistical categories, but also added a large recency component to make sure that each week the teams that are riding hot streaks are more appropriately demonstrated in the rankings.
Don’t like where your team is ranked? Unfortunately, they will have to turn it around on the ice, as we take zero personal opinions into effect.
Have any suggestions for the TWC Power Rankings for next season? Leave us a comment and let us know. Without further ado, this week’s power rankings are below!
Week 7 NHL Power Rankings
|Rank||Change||Team||Team Name||Last Week||Record||TWCScore|
|2||+3||Toronto Maple Leafs||3-0-0||16-6-1||781.5|
|7||-1||Tampa Bay Lightning||2-1-0||12-5-3||750.3|
|9||-1||New York Rangers||2-0-0||13-4-3||740.4|
|13||+3||Columbus Blue Jackets||3-1-0||12-7-0||699.1|
|14||–||New Jersey Devils||1-1-1||9-6-4||698.9|
|16||-1||St Louis Blues||2-1-1||11-7-3||693.6|
|19||–||Los Angeles Kings||1-1-0||9-8-3||668.2|
|20||-3||Vegas Golden Knights||1-2-0||12-9-0||666.8|
|21||+2||San Jose Sharks||3-1-0||11-9-1||665.7|
|23||+1||Detroit Red Wings||2-0-0||10-9-3||624.7|
|28||-2||New York Islanders||0-2-0||5-10-2||546.8|
The Carolina Hurricanes are once again the number one team in the TWC NHL Power Rankings this week. Even after going 1–2–1, the Canes record and underlying numbers gave them the slight edge over the rest of the top teams. Being first in CF%, fifth in xGF% and SCF%, and third in SV% gives them a massive edge over other teams in the top-five.
Carolina’s TWCScore dropped significantly week over week, from an 844 to a 795, which lessens the gap between them and those right behind them. That similar drop represents the distance between first and seventh this week. They still are on top, but their past week just simply wasn’t as dominant.
Speaking of dominant, the Toronto Maple Leafs were a perfect 3–0–0 last week, riding a four-game win streak into the second overall position. The team is 9–1–0 in their last ten games, scoring by committee, and getting outstanding goaltending from Jack Campbell.
In the stats that the model measures, the Leafs are fourth in CF% and HDCF%, first in xGF% and SCF%, and second in SV%. The team was simply on another level in November and looks to have kicked that slow start into the stratosphere. Watch out in the Atlantic Division.
Rounding our the top-five are the Florida Panthers, Calgary Flames, and Edmonton Oilers. Three teams that went a combined 4–4–0 last week, but only dropped a combined three. Oiler fans may be the ones who are fare more confused by the fact that their team was 2–1–0 and dropped two spots. As we touched on the rankings last week, the Oiler’s underlying numbers were simply not as strong as other teams. Their best rank this past week was 10th position in SCF%, which pales in comparison to the Panthers and Flames.
So although the Oilers’ winning percentage was higher, the rest of the model counted the higher rankings of the two other teams and just narrowly ranked them lower. The margins separating the teams from the third position to the sixth are minimal, therefore next week will be interesting to watch for movement right at the top.
Some other high flying top ten teams that deserve notice this week are the Washington Capitals, Minniesota Wild, and Colorado Avalanche. The teams were a combined 9–1–0 last week and continue to trend in the right direction. The Capitals and Wild were already near the top of their division, but the Avalanche on the other hand are now officially re-entering the contender conversation. After a frustrating start with injuries and COVID, the team is mostly back to 100% on and off the ice. They may catch the Central Division sleeping on them.
The biggest gainer this past week was surprisingly the Dallas Stars, up seven spots to the fifteenth overall position. A 3–0–0 week—amidst a four-game win streak—has the Stars now up to 7–3–0 in their last ten games. When I meant surprisingly, I meant solely from the standpoint of the Stars so quietly going about their business. They may not be catching all of the headlines, but they are turning the corner in what is becoming a hotly contested Western Conference.
Trending in the wrong direction are the Winnipeg Jets. Luckily they were able to pick up a victory over the Flames on Saturday night, but before that the team was bleeding badly. A 1–3–0 record last week had them losing nine spots in the rankings. Their best ranks in the underlying number are a ninth in SV% and a 10th in CF%. The team had a really tough week, but the win against the Flames might be enough to put them back on the right track.
Other notables from this week’s rankings:
- The Pittsburgh Penguins just missed out on being the biggest gainers, jumping six spots into the 12th overall position. Had they not lost to the Canadiens on Saturday, it would have been a perfect 4–0–0 week, but 3–1–0 is still great to keep pace in the Metropolitan Division
- The Anaheim Duck trended in the wrong direction, going 1–3–0 last week and dropped to the 17th spot on our list. That magical eight-game win streak is slowly fading away, but the team is still in a good spot behind the Alberta teams in the Pacific Division. Three games this week against Pacific opponents should be just what they need to get back on track
- The Seattle Kraken jumped four spots this week after going 2–1–0, including snapping the Florida Panthers home win streak in the process. It hasn’t been quite what the team expected this season, but a solid week for the group that looks to slowly claw back.
- It’s not all sunshine at the bottom of the list, specifically in Canada. The Vancouver Canucks, Montreal Canadiens, and Ottawa Senators take three of the bottom four spots. The Arizona Coyotes rank dead last and will need their record to turn around for any drastic movement. It’s simply just not been a good season for any of those teams, and with the Canadiens cleaning their management group out yesterday, expect more of these teams to follow.
Past Power Rankings
Check here for how teams have done over past weeks and stay tuned for upcoming power rankings.