In week 9 of the TWC NHL Power Rankings, we saw a lot of Canadian teams on the move for better or for worse, while the top-two remain in their own tier. Movement across the board is less drastic as underlying numbers are starting to solidify TWCScores. As the league approaches the holiday season, the team distribution really starts to settle in.
TWC Power Rankings explained
If you’re new to our power rankings, this is how it all works.
Here at TWC, we use a statistical model to effectively rank teams on a week to week basis. The model takes into effect winning percentages, CF%, SCF%, HDCF% as well as SV%. Each statistical category is weighed and scored differently, giving each team a unique TWC Score that determines their ranking after each week. The formula puts the highest emphasis on winning percentages over other statistics. All numbers are taken in all situations, to incorporate special teams into the fray.
We got some excellent feedback over the course of last season from our readers as to how we could improve this model moving forward. We have slightly altered the weightings of the statistical categories, but also added a large recency component to make sure that each week the teams that are riding hot streaks are more appropriately demonstrated in the rankings.
Don’t like where your team is ranked? Unfortunately, they will have to turn it around on the ice, as we take zero personal opinions into effect.
Have any suggestions for the TWC Power Rankings for next season? Leave us a comment and let us know. Without further ado, this week’s power rankings are below!
Week 9 NHL Power Rankings
|Rank||Change||Team||Team Name||Last Week||Record||TWCScore|
|3||+1||Toronto Maple Leafs||2-1-0||19-8-2||763.1|
|4||+1||Tampa Bay Lightning||2-1-0||17-6-4||759.8|
|9||-2||New York Rangers||2-2-0||18-6-3||739.9|
|15||+3||St Louis Blues||3-0-1||15-8-5||694.3|
|17||-1||Vegas Golden Knights||2-1-0||16-11-0||685.2|
|19||+1||Los Angeles Kings||2-1-0||12-10-4||669.7|
|20||-1||San Jose Sharks||2-1-0||15-12-1||668.5|
|21||+2||Columbus Blue Jackets||1-1-1||14-11-1||651.1|
|22||–||New Jersey Devils||1-2-1||10-11-5||647.4|
|23||-2||Detroit Red Wings||0-3-0||13-12-3||615.9|
|28||–||New York Islanders||2-1-0||7-11-5||578.3|
For what feels like the first time in forever, the top-two teams remained the same week-over-week. The Florida Panthers and Carolina Hurricanes remain in the one and two spots. Interestingly enough, even after the Panthers went 1–1–1 last week, and the Canes almost sweeping through Western Canada, the Panthers got the slightest of edges in our model—most likely due to a slightly higher winning percentage, the top ranked CF% and second ranked xGF%. Had the Canes won their game last night, the model would have ranked them higher. That being said, both teams are at the top of their games right now and faring much better than the rest.
The Toronto Maple Leafs and Tampa Bay Lightning both were up a spot this week, due in large part to some slumping Alberta teams. That being said, both teams went a respectable 2–1–0 last week and are keeping pace with the top ranked Panthers in the Atlantic Division. The Leafs are tied at the top, while the Panthers are just two points behind. That’s what you call depth.
Rounding out the top-five this week are the resurging Colorado Avalanche. A perfect 4–0–0 week has them right back on track to contender status. The team is 7–2–1 in their last ten games, and although they are still dealing with some key injuries, the team has been able to find ways to win and surge their way up the Central Division rankings. They still sit in fourth right now—only one point back of second with three games in hand—and they are consistently trending in the right direction.
The Calgary Flames were almost the biggest losers this week, but managed to earn a single overtime point against the Canes on Thursday night, and therefore didn’t completely fall down the list. The same cannot be said for the Edmonton Oilers and Dallas Stars, who both fell five spots this past week after going a combined 1–6–0.
The Oilers have now lost five straight games in regulation, while Dallas has only lost three. The Oilers, who were the belles of the ball for the first quarter of the season have hit a bit of a rut with Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl only playing at an All-Star level rather than their superhero pace to start the season. It’s better the team faces adversity now, rather than the first game of a playoff season.
Not to be out done by their Central Division counterparts, but the Nashville Predators were also on a roll last week, tying the Avalanche for the biggest jump this week. A perfect 4–0–0 week, to hold a five-game win streak, the Predators moved themselves into a tie for second in the division. The reason behind the difference in rankings between both teams comes down to the numbers.
The Predators’ best ranking would be a 12th place in HDCF%, which doesn’t hold the highest weight when compared to other categories. The Avalanche on the other hand are a top-ten team in most categories measured, leading to a higher TWCScore. Time can change these values, but right now Colorado is much better on the ice leading to their top-five ranking when combined with their current win streak.
Other notables from this week’s rankings:
- The Vancouver Canucks have won four straight games under Bruce Boudreau—the first time a new head coach has done that with the Canucks. Now with their horrendous start to the season, and their poor underlying numbers, that streak was only good for a three spot jump up to 24th in our model. A step in the right direction.
- The Minnesota Wild and New York Rangers both went 2–2–0 last week and both fell two spots. Talk about coincidental coordination.
- The Winnipeg Jets went 1–1–1 over the last seven days and fell three spots in our rankings. With the other hot teams in the Central making moves, the Jets are in danger of falling behind.
- The Anaheim Ducks continue to not just hang around, but are now atop the Pacific after going 3–1–1 last week. They currently have the most games played in the NHL, but are one of the unexpected stories of the season.
Past Power Rankings
Check here for how teams have done over past weeks and stay tuned for upcoming power rankings.