With the Calgary Flames’ regular season concluding last week, it’s time to look toward what should be a busy offseason for a team in the middle of a rebuild. Craig Conroy is sure to have plenty of items on his to-do list, but perhaps the biggest one will be what to do with starting goaltender Jacob Markstrom.
After a near trade to New Jersey in February, Markstrom finished the season as a Flame and struggled down the stretch. During Calgary’s locker cleanout day, both Markstrom and Conroy didn’t exactly pour cold water on the trade rumours.
So Conroy now has a decision to make. Does he hold onto his starting goaltender into next season, or move on and look to the future at the team continues to rebuild? For a multitude of reasons, a trade makes the most sense and below explains why.
Markstrom’s performance has been inconsistent
Since signing as a free agent in 2020, Markstorm’s performance year-to-year has been inconsistent, to say the least. His performance has bounced between replacement-level and Vezina-calibre depending on the season. Goaltenders are so hard to predict and Markstrom is no exception. For that reason, it makes a whole lot of sense to part with Markstrom right now during one of his high periods, before the inevitable low hits. As he gets older, the lows may persist longer too.
Below are his numbers by season and where he ranked among goaltenders with at least 30 games played in each season. All numbers from Evolving-Hockey.
| Season | Save % | League rank | GAA | League rank | GSAx | League rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020–21 | .904 | 19th | 2.68 | 12th | -12.11 | 20th |
| 2021–22 | .922 | 4th | 2.22 | 3rd | 15.61 | 6th |
| 2022–23 | .892 | 34th | 2.92 | 22nd | 1.5 | 24th |
| 2023–24 | .905 | 22nd | 2.78 | 17th | 28.93 | 3rd |
Once again, it’s crystal clear that Markstrom’s numbers have been anything but consistent. Since joining the team in 2020–21, Markstrom has pretty much alternated good and bad seasons. He’s yet to put together two strong seasons in a row. After a disastrous 2022–23 season in which Markstrom was arguably the worst starter in the NHL, he rebounded in a huge way and was among the best goaltenders in the league this past season.
If the trend continues, we could see a pretty steep drop off in play in 2024–25. That’s far from a guarantee of course, but it’s not like he had a strong finish to the 2023–24 season to inspire confidence. After an incredible first five months, Markstrom’s play fell off a cliff in March.
For a player as inconsistent as Markstrom, taking advantage of one of his strong seasons makes sense. If the Flames decide to wait it out, they could open themselves up to a ton of risk as Markstorm’s play could very likely deteriorate next season.
Markstrom’s value will likely never be higher
Building off the above, it’s fair to say that Markstrom’s value around the league will likely never be higher than it is right now. It’s easy to forget that just eight months ago, trading Markstrom would’ve been impossible. In fact the Flames likely would’ve had to add just to get his contract off the books.
Fast forward to today and Markstrom’s bounce-back 2023–24 season has his trade value at its highest point since May 2022. There’s good reason to believe his trade value will never be higher than it is right now. At 34 years old, Markstrom is entering the final stretch of his career so it’s hard to believe his performance will improve over the final two years of his contract, especially if he’s playing behind a rebuilding Flames roster.
By moving him in the summer, the Flames would also guarantee any team acquiring Markstrom gets him for the entire two years left on his contract. If you wait until the season starts to make a decision, you’ve already likely lowered his value. As well, by holding onto him into the season, the Flames would open themselves up to a ton of risk. Not only could Markstrom’s play decline next season, thus dropping his trade value but there’s also a chance he could get injured. Over the past four years in Calgary Markstrom has missed games due to injury on five separate occasions.
Looking at GSAx, Markstrom has had some very clear dips since coming to Calgary, particularly in his first year. However, this past season was arguably his most impressive yet, as he regularly stood on his head behind a poor Flames roster.
Here’s his cumulative GSAx at the end of each month since debuting with the Flames in January 2021.
As mentioned above, Markstrom’s GSAx skyrocketed this season. Playing behind a bad team with poor defensive metrics will do that. Markstrom was unquestionably the team’s MVP this season, just one year after posting some of the worst numbers of his entire career. It’s that inconsistency that makes keeping Markstrom a major risk. His value is higher than it will likely ever be again right now, barring something incredibly out of left field.
If we look at recent examples of starting goaltenders getting moved in the offseason, there’s a good foundation on what any return would look like. Over the past 13 years, there’s been multiple starting goaltenders moved in the offseason, offering a look at a likely return for Markstrom if he were to be moved right now.
| Offseason | Goaltender Traded | Return |
|---|---|---|
| 2021 | Darcy Kuemper | 2022 1st, 2024 3rd, Connor Timmins |
| 2016 | Frederik Andersen | 2016 1st, 2017 2nd |
| 2013 | Cory Schneider | 2013 1st (9th overall) |
| 2011 | Semyon Varlamov | 2012 1st, 2012 2nd |
Based on the above, the absolute minimum return for Markstrom should be a first-round pick, plus added picks and/or prospects. It’s worth noting that of the above four goaltenders, both Frederik Andersen and Semyon Varlamov were pending unrestricted free agents when traded and Darcy Kuemper had one year left on his deal.
Only Cory Schneider had two more years left on his deal when traded. For that reason, it’s fair to assume that Markstrom should fetch closer to the return Schneider got compared to the other three as he also has two more years left under contract. It’s highly unlikely you would get close to that type of return in the middle of the season when there are fewer suitors and the cap situation around the league is much tighter.
It’s time to look to the future
Make no mistake, the Flames are in the middle of a rebuild right now. Regardless of what the organization says, this will not be a quick turnaround. The Flames are devoid of any high-end talent at pretty much every position and are unlikely to be a competitive team for at least another two years. It’s just another reason why moving a 34-year-old goaltender for futures makes sense.
The Flames are not going to be challenging for a playoff spot anytime soon, so it doesn’t make much sense to hold onto Markstrom in the hopes of a playoff push. We all know how that strategy worked out this past season. Next season would likely go the exact same way if they decide to hold onto him to remain competitive.
With an elite goaltending prospect in Dustin Wolf waiting in the wings, it’s time to look to the future and move on from Markstrom. At this point in time, an additional first-round pick or prospect helps the organization more than Markstrom does. There’s no reason to believe this team can be competitive for the remaining two years of his deal.
Moving Markstrom this offseason would go a long way to helping the organization build for the future to get back to playing competitive hockey before the new arena opens up.
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