Welcome back to the TWC Power Rankings!
Here at TWC, we use a statistical model to effectively rank teams on a week to week basis. The model takes into effect winning percentages, CF%, SCF%, HDCF% as well as SV%. Each statistical category is weighed and scored differently, giving each team a unique TWC Score that determines their ranking after each week. The formula puts the highest emphasis on winning percentages over other statistics. All numbers are taken in all situations, to incorporate special teams into the fray.
We got some excellent feedback over the course of last season from our readers as to how we could improve this model moving forward. We have slightly altered the weightings of the statistical categories, but also added a large recency component to make sure that each week the teams that are riding hot streaks are more appropriately demonstrated in the rankings.
Don’t like where your team is ranked? Unfortunately, they will have to turn it around on the ice, as we take zero personal opinions into effect.
Have any suggestions for the TWC Power Rankings for next season? Leave us a comment and let us know!
| Rank | Change | Team | Team Name | Last Week | Record | TWCScore |
| 1 | – |  | Boston Bruins | 2-1-0 | 39-12-12 | 786.7 |
| 2 | +6 |  | Colorado Avalanche | 3-0-1 | 36-18-7 | 759.2 |
| 3 | +13 |  | St Louis Blues | 4-0-0 | 36-17-10 | 758.8 |
| 4 | +7 |  | Philadelphia Flyers | 3-0-0 | 35-20-7 | 755.3 |
| 5 | -3 |  | Tampa Bay Lightning | 1-2-0 | 40-17-5 | 754.5 |
| 6 | +1 |  | Vegas Golden Knights | 4-0-0 | 34-22-8 | 754 |
| 7 | -3 |  | Dallas Stars | 2-1-0 | 36-20-6 | 742.3 |
| 8 | -2 |  | Carolina Hurricanes | 2-1-0 | 35-22-4 | 738 |
| 9 | -4 |  | Washington Capitals | 1-2-1 | 38-18-6 | 737 |
| 10 | -7 |  | Pittsburgh Penguins | 1-3-0 | 37-18-6 | 736.3 |
| 11 | -2 |  | New York Islanders | 2-2-0 | 35-20-6 | 712 |
| 12 | +6 |  | New York Rangers | 3-0-0 | 33-24-4 | 709.3 |
| 13 | +2 |  | Vancouver Canucks | 1-0-1 | 33-22-6 | 703.9 |
| 14 | -4 |  | Edmonton Oilers | 1-1-1 | 33-22-7 | 697.2 |
| 15 | +4 |  | Calgary Flames | 2-1-0 | 32-25-6 | 696.9 |
| 16 | +4 |  | Minnesota Wild | 2-1-0 | 29-25-7 | 693.6 |
| 17 | -3 |  | Columbus Blue Jackets | 0-1-2 | 30-19-14 | 692.2 |
| 18 | -6 |  | Toronto Maple Leafs | 1-2-0 | 32-23-8 | 688.9 |
| 19 | -6 |  | Nashville Predators | 1-1-1 | 30-23-8 | 684 |
| 20 | +3 |  | Montreal Canadiens | 2-1-0 | 29-27-8 | 684 |
| 21 | +1 |  | Florida Panthers | 2-2-0 | 32-24-6 | 676.2 |
| 22 | -5 |  | Buffalo Sabres | 2-1-0 | 29-25-8 | 670.4 |
| 23 | -2 |  | Arizona Coyotes | 2-2-0 | 31-26-8 | 661.3 |
| 24 | +1 |  | Winnipeg Jets | 2-2-0 | 32-27-5 | 650.9 |
| 25 | +3 |  | New Jersey Devils | 2-1-0 | 24-27-10 | 640 |
| 26 | +3 |  | Chicago Blackhawks | 1-2-0 | 27-27-8 | 626.8 |
| 27 | +3 |  | Ottawa Senators | 1-2-0 | 21-30-11 | 601.3 |
| 28 | -2 |  | Los Angeles Kings | 1-2-1 | 22-35-6 | 598.5 |
| 29 | -2 |  | Anaheim Ducks | 0-3-1 | 24-30-8 | 598.5 |
| 30 | -6 |  | San Jose Sharks | 0-4-0 | 26-32-4 | 588.5 |
| 31 | – |  | Detroit Red Wings | 1-2-0 | 15-45-4 | 481.4 |
Power Ranking Notables
It was a strange week for the Toronto Maple Leafs. They posted a 1-2 record but the losses were embarrassing. After getting called out by coach Sheldon Keefe following a loss to the Sabres, the Leafs came out flat in a 5-2 loss to the Penguins. Then they rebounded from the loss with a dominant 4-0 win over those same Penguins.
Not to be outdone for strangeness, they turned around and lost to the Carolina Hurricanes Sunday night. Carolina had to use their emergency goalie, and David Ayres (the zamboni driver for the AHL Marlies) played the whole third period for the Hurricanes. The Leafs were unable to muster a goal in the final frame, and suffered a truly embarrassing loss. They dropped six spots this week as a result and are bound to be active in today’s deadline.
Likewise, the Nashville Predators sit right beside the Leafs in this weeks rankings; dropping an identical six spots. The Preds fired their coach in January but consistent results still are not coming. They went 1-1-1 this past week and are sitting outside of the playoff picture as of this morning. They do have games in hand on almost all the teams they are chasing, which is bound to help, but the Predators have more questions than answers right now. They are going to be one of the most interesting teams at the upcoming trade deadline, with a legitimate decision over whether they should buy or sell. Interesting times in Tennessee.
On the opposite end of the spectrum, the Philadelphia Flyers are surging. They won all three games this week including both ends of a home and home with divisional foe Columbus Blue Jackets. Then they ended the week with a huge 4-2 victory over the Winnipeg Jets at home. That was good enough to put them currently in third place in the Metropolitan Division, and having won seven of their last ten the Flyers are finally playing some good late season hockey.
Speaking of good late season hockey, the New York Rangers have won eight of their last ten, including a perfect 3-0 week that pushed them six spots up the rankings. They still sit four points out of the wild card, but the Rangers are talented and playing some excellent hockey. The Rangers paid up for him in Free Agency, but Artemi Panarin is proving to be a good investment. The winger is currently leading the entire NHL in even strength points. He added four more last week and is one of the main reasons the Rangers are still relevant heading into the stretch run.
Lastly the Colorado Avalanche look every bit of a cup contender. They went 3-0-1 this past week and rose six spots to the number two overall position. They are talented, young, and have more depth than they have been in the past. Another potential player at the deadline, GM Joe Sakic has some decisions to make. By the numbers, the Avs should be all-in.
Biggest Gainer & Loser
St. Louis Blues (+13)
The defending Stanley Cup champions are starting to really look the part. They went 4-0-0 last week, but the most notable stat was the defence. The Blues gave up two goals combined across the four contests including back to back shutouts. The opponents were not great, but the Blues took care of business and are locking down the defensive end of the ice. The playoffs are coming, and this is a group that knows what it takes. Expect them to continue to tighten the screws in anticipation of another long run this spring.
Pittsburgh Penguins (-7)
The week started ok for the Pens with a 5-2 win over the Maple Leafs. It was all downhill from there though, with three straight losses to the Maple Leafs, Sabres, and Capitals. They were just the opposite of the Blues, as they surrendered four or more goals in every game this week. It is tough to find wins in this league when you are letting teams score four and five a night, and the Pens will need to find some answers on defence before their season gets derailed. They are still sitting in second in the Metro, but a number of teams are coming fast. The Pens need to pick it up.
What are your thoughts? Are you surprised where your team landed this week? Let us know at @wincolumnblog.
All data courtesy of Natural Stat Trick.
TWC Power Rankings:
Week 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20
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