Welcome back to the TWC Power Rankings!
Here at TWC, we use a statistical model to effectively rank teams on a week to week basis. The model takes into effect winning percentages, CF%, SCF%, HDCF% as well as SV%. Each statistical category is weighed and scored differently, giving each team a unique TWC Score that determines their ranking after each week. The formula puts the highest emphasis on winning percentages over other statistics. All numbers are taken in all situations, to incorporate special teams into the fray.
We got some excellent feedback over the course of last season from our readers as to how we could improve this model moving forward. We have slightly altered the weightings of the statistical categories, bust also added a large recency component to make sure that each week the teams that are riding hot streaks are more appropriately demonstrated in the rankings.
Don’t like where your team is ranked? Unfortunately, they will have to turn it around on the ice, as we take zero personal opinions into effect.
Have any suggestions for the TWC Power Rankings for next season? Leave us a comment and let us know!
|Rank||Change||Team||Team Name||Last Week||Record||TWCScore|
|2||+3||Tampa Bay Lightning||4-0-0||24-13-4||769.4|
|5||+5||Toronto Maple Leafs||3-0-0||24-14-5||753.2|
|6||+8||Vegas Golden Knights||3-0-0||24-15-6||751|
|9||-2||New York Islanders||1-2-0||25-12-3||723.9|
|12||-10||St Louis Blues||0-2-1||26-10-7||720.2|
|16||–||Columbus Blue Jackets||2-1-0||19-15-8||690.4|
|25||+2||San Jose Sharks||2-1-1||19-21-4||637.2|
|26||+3||Los Angeles Kings||1-1-0||17-22-4||633.6|
|27||+1||New Jersey Devils||2-1-0||15-20-6||629.7|
|29||-9||New York Rangers||0-3-0||19-18-4||604.2|
|31||–||Detroit Red Wings||1-2-0||10-30-3||487.4|
Power Ranking Notables
New year, new rankings. The league is back in full swing after the holidays, and teams are gearing up to make their yearly decisions on whether to buy or sell come the trade deadline. It doesn’t help that the playoff race in every division is as tight as ever, with the largest gap between the third and fourth seeds of a division being just four points (Dallas: 52 points, Winnipeg: 48 points).
The Washington Capitals are back on top, being the first team to cross the 60 point threshold this season earlier in the week, and they finished with another win, giving them a total of 63 points so far. With the Boston Bruins, these two teams are the final two that have yet to lose 10 times in regulation, (in contrast, the Detroit Red Wings have yet to win 10 times in regulation and have instead lost a game after sixty minutes a whopping 30 times already). The Capitals can expand the gap even further as both the Bruins and the Blues are in a bit of a lull right now.
There was a lot of movement over the past week with lots of surges upwards and tumbles downward. The Tampa Bay Lightning have gained ground in the Atlantic. Going 4-0-0 will do that for a team. For the defending Presidents’ Trophy winners, it’s no surprise that they’ve clawed their way back into a seeded playoff spot. Currently boasting the longest win streak in the league alongside the Vancouver Canucks, the Lightning are looking closer to the team they were a season ago.
The Dallas Stars extended their win streak to four games by going 2-0-0 over the past week, which included their comeback victory over the Nashville Predators during the Winter Classic in front of a crowd of over 85,000. The Central division is currently the tightest division in terms of spread between first and last, so it goes without saying that every single win matters more than ever as the Central playoff race heats up.
The Pacific division teams that are vying for playoff spots (sorry, California) are all keeping pace with one another. The Vegas Golden Knights are rising and are looking for more separation, but the Arizona Coyotes and the Canucks are hot on their heels. The trio are riding four, three, and seven game win streaks right now and the Edmonton Oilers and Calgary Flames right on their tails.
The Pacific division teams that aren’t vying for playoff spots (sorry, California) are all keeping pace with one another. Taking up the 26th through 28th spots in the league, the trio of the San Jose Sharks, Anaheim Ducks, and Los Angeles Kings are all simultaneously seeing their seasons go way, way wrong. It’s hard to move up in power rankings when the on-ice product is so far from desirable.
Back to the east, the abysmal season from the Red Wings must be revisited. As said above, they haven’t won 10 games in regulation yet (currently sitting at nine) and have a goal differential of -73. The second worst goal differential belongs to the New Jersey Devils, which looks much better at a -38. Things just haven’t gone right for the Red Wings this season and week by week, they’re cementing their place in the basement of the league.
Speaking of the Devils, they continue their trend up. Despite being 30th in the league, it wouldn’t be surprising if they gain some spots in the league rankings as they sort out the mess they find themselves in. When looking at just the bottom third of the league, the Devils have the second best record over their previous 10 games, earning a 6-3-1 stretch. Only the Chicago Blackhawks are ahead of them with a 7-3-0 record.
There’s lots of hockey left in the season as the mid-way mark just officially passed in terms of total games played for the league. As good as things have been for some teams and as bad as they’ve been for others, there is still plenty of time left for things to completely change by season’s end.
Arizona Coyotes (+14)
The Coyotes gained big over the past week. Going 0-3-0 the week prior, they rebounded with a perfect 3-0-0 to maintain their position in the Pacific. However, they’re facing some serious injury issues with both Darcy Kuemper and Antti Raanta currently sidelined. The goaltending duo in the desert has been stellar, but the Coyotes are going to have to find a way to overcome this. Hopefully Raanta’s injury is short term, but expect Adin Hill to pick up the vacant reins as the injured goalies recover.
Philadelphia Flyers (-11)
Unfortunately for the Flyers, a win-less week drops them down in the rankings and they’re also on the outside looking in at the playoffs. Sitting at a respectable 22-15-5, they’re going to want to rebound and prevent this losing streak from allowing lower opponents to close the gap. The Flyers went 1-4-0 during their road trip through the Pacific, giving up 23 goals against while scoring just 12. Hopefully their return back home can help smooth out this rough patch.
What are your thoughts? Are you surprised where your team landed this week? Let us know at @wincolumnblog.
All data courtesy of Natural Stat Trick.
TWC Power Rankings: