TWC Power Rankings: Week 18

Welcome back to the TWC Power Rankings!

Here at TWC, we use a statistical model to effectively rank teams on a week to week basis. The model takes into effect winning percentages, CF%, SCF%, HDCF% as well as SV%. Each statistical category is weighed and scored differently, giving each team a unique TWC Score that determines their ranking after each week. The formula puts the highest emphasis on winning percentages over other statistics. All numbers are taken in all situations, to incorporate special teams into the fray.

We got some excellent feedback over the course of last season from our readers as to how we could improve this model moving forward. We have slightly altered the weightings of the statistical categories, but also added a large recency component to make sure that each week the teams that are riding hot streaks are more appropriately demonstrated in the rankings. 

Don’t like where your team is ranked? Unfortunately, they will have to turn it around on the ice, as we take zero personal opinions into effect.

Have any suggestions for the TWC Power Rankings for next season? Leave us a comment and let us know!


RankChangeTeamTeam NameLast WeekRecordTWCScore
1+2
Pittsburgh Penguins2-0-033-14-5800
2
Boston Bruins2-0-031-10-12793
3+1
Tampa Bay Lightning3-0-132-15-5779.7
4-3
Washington Capitals2-2-035-13-5771.2
5+8
Toronto Maple Leafs3-0-028-17-7748.5
6+4
Dallas Stars2-1-029-18-4736.7
7+8
Vegas Golden Knights2-0-027-20-7734.8
8-2
Carolina Hurricanes1-1-030-19-3730.4
9+2
Philadelphia Flyers1-0-128-17-7728
10+4
Edmonton Oilers2-0-128-18-6725
11+6
Vancouver Canucks3-0-130-18-5723.5
12
Columbus Blue Jackets1-0-128-16-9723
13-5
New York Islanders0-0-129-15-6719.9
14-9
St Louis Blues1-3-031-14-8715.6
15-8
Colorado Avalanche0-1-028-16-6695.3
16
Calgary Flames1-1-127-20-6688
17+7
New York Rangers2-0-025-21-4687.2
18+4
Chicago Blackhawks1-0-025-21-6687
19-1
Nashville Predators2-2-024-20-7675.8
20-11
Florida Panthers0-1-028-17-5673.7
21
Montreal Canadiens2-2-024-23-7670.5
22-2
Arizona Coyotes0-1-226-21-7654.8
23+2
Winnipeg Jets1-1-026-23-4640.6
24-5
Minnesota Wild0-1-023-22-6638.6
25-2
Buffalo Sabres1-2-023-22-7635.1
26
Anaheim Ducks2-2-021-26-5625.9
27+3
New Jersey Devils1-0-218-24-9625.2
28+1
Ottawa Senators1-1-218-24-10614.9
29-2
San Jose Sharks1-2-022-27-4606.2
30-2
Los Angeles Kings1-2-019-29-5601.5
31
Detroit Red Wings0-2-012-37-4467

Power Ranking Notables

After an extremely quiet last week, with some very interesting movements, the TWC Power Rankings have a much larger sample size of games to run the model against. The benefactors of this? The Pittsburgh Penguins. Back in the number one position after a brief absence, the Penguins are inside the top 10 of all categories measured in the rankings, with their number one ranking in HDCF% being the most notable. Consistency is key with this team, and after going 8-2-0 in their last ten games, they are giving the Washington Capitals a run for their money atop the Metropolitan Division.

Rounding out the top five this week we have the Boston Bruins, Tampa Bay Lightning, the aforementioned Capitals, and the surging Toronto Maple Leafs. What was once a season of all the Metropolitain Division talk had quickly shifted towards the Atlantic Division’s prowess. The top three teams in the Atlantic, Bruins, Lightning and Leafs, have all won three straight games. Last week the only loss suffered by those teams was an OT loss for Tampa Bay. These three teams were bound to make the noise in the Eastern Conference at some point this season, and finally they are. The Maple Leafs still have the Florida Panthers chomping at their heels, but should shape up to be a fascinating race to the finish for all of the Atlantic teams.

Moving down the list is an interesting team we haven’t touched on much this season: The Vegas Golden Knights. To say they have the stats to back up their ranking this week would be an understatement. 3rd in CF%, 1st in SCF%, and 6th in HDCF%, the Knights have mostly everything figured out on the ice. Their 18th ranked SV% isn’t doing them any favors, but their recent play still has them contending in a tight Pacific Division.

Speaking of the Pacific, the Edmonton Oilers are also experiencing some recent success. 7-1-2 in their previous 10, including an emotional beating of the Calgary Flames on Saturday night. The Oilers have found a ton of success with Leon Draisaitl and Kailer Yamamoto together on the “second” line. While it’s hard to pick a front runner in the Pacific Division, especially with the Vancouver Canucks playing as well as they are, a dangerous two line punch has the Oilers gaining a ton of momentum that other teams need to take notice of.

In the middle of our rankings we have a ton of teams jostling for potential playoff positions. The likes of the Calgary Flames, Arizona Coyotes, Chicago Blackhawks, and Winnipeg Jets all have been unable to really distance themselves from each other. The Blackhawks have been the hottest of the bunch, with the Coyotes heading in the other direction. Which team will be able to make a definitive move to solidify their playoff position?

Biggest Gainer & Loser

Vegas Golden Knights & Toronto Maple Leafs (+8)

The Golden Knights are finally back on a bit of a win streak after surprisingly switching their coaches midway through a season that has them within a game or two of first place in the Pacific Division. Their 2-0-0 week vaulted them up nine spots in the rankings, due in part to winning both their games last week, and for downright dominant possession stats in their second game, a shutout win against the Predators. We touched on them earlier, but the Leafs’ recent 3-0-0 week have them sharing the biggest gainer category as well. Auston Matthews and William Nylander continue to impress on the offensive end, and some key wins right out of the All-Star break has the team back in a playoff position. Huge game tonight against the team just behind them: the Florida Panthers. Speaking of which..

Florida Panthers (-11)

The Panthers have been a very interesting team for two weeks now. Last week, they won both their games and fell two spots. This week, the lost just one game and fell a whopping 13 spots. There is a reason for this slide. Despite just one loss this week, they were absolutely buried in terms of overall possession numbers and gameplay in general. The Canadiens dominated them in every way, and this is consistent with their two games last week. They might have a winning record the past two weeks, but they are playing very poorly and these metrics don’t suggest the Panthers will continue to win.


What are your thoughts? Are you surprised where your team landed this week? Let us know at @wincolumnblog.


All data courtesy of Natural Stat Trick.

TWC Power Rankings:

Week 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17

6 thoughts on “TWC Power Rankings: Week 18

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