Welcome back to the TWC Power Rankings!
Here at TWC, we use a statistical model to effectively rank teams on a week to week basis. The model takes into effect winning percentages, CF%, SCF%, HDCF% as well as SV%. Each statistical category is weighed and scored differently, giving each team a unique TWC Score that determines their ranking after each week. The formula puts the highest emphasis on winning percentages over other statistics. All numbers are taken in all situations, to incorporate special teams into the fray.
We got some excellent feedback over the course of last season from our readers as to how we could improve this model moving forward. We have slightly altered the weightings of the statistical categories, bust also added a large recency component to make sure that each week the teams that are riding hot streaks are more appropriately demonstrated in the rankings.
Don’t like where your team is ranked? Unfortunately, they will have to turn it around on the ice, as we take zero personal opinions into effect.
Have any suggestions for the TWC Power Rankings for next season? Leave us a comment and let us know!
|Rank||Change||Team||Team Name||Last Week||Record||TWCScore|
|3||-2||New York Islanders||1-2-0||17-5-2||771.4|
|4||+4||St Louis Blues||3-0-1||17-5-6||770.2|
|16||+4||Vegas Golden Knights||2-1-0||13-11-4||690.2|
|17||–||Toronto Maple Leafs||2-1-0||13-11-4||689.1|
|18||+5||San Jose Sharks||3-1-0||15-12-1||682.7|
|19||-10||Tampa Bay Lightning||1-2-1||12-9-3||681|
|20||+5||New York Rangers||3-0-1||13-9-3||680.5|
|23||-1||Columbus Blue Jackets||2-2-0||11-11-4||656.2|
|26||+4||Los Angeles Kings||2-1-1||11-14-2||645.7|
|29||-2||New Jersey Devils||1-2-0||9-12-4||611.9|
|31||–||Detroit Red Wings||0-3-0||7-19-3||480.8|
Power Ranking Notables
A big week in the NHL led to a few big moves for the top team in the TWC Power Rankings. Reclaiming the top spot for the first time since Week 5, the Boston Bruins are atop our rankings and also tied at the top of the NHL standings.
A strong 4-0-0 week from the Bruins was good enough to get them into the league’s top spot, matching the Washington Capitals in points but with a game in hand. The Capitals had their own undefeated week of their own, going 3-0-0.
The two Eastern Conference powerhouses continue to impress on a consistent basis. David Pastrnak continues his quest for 50 goals in 50 games, while rival Alex Ovechkin also is keeping pace in terms of league leading scorers. Both teams show no signs of slowing down anytime soon.
The New York Islanders fell out of the top spot after a modest 1-2-0 week. The Islanders still have a chance to catch the Capitals in the Metropolitan Division being seven points back with four games in hand; a bit of a scheduling oddity. The Metropolitan continues to be a nightmarish division to be a part of.
Rounding out the top five are two teams that haven’t gotten a ton of notice in our rankings this year: the St. Louis Blues and Philadelphia Flyers. The defending Stanley Cup champions have widened their lead atop the Western Conference and Central Division.
The Blues haven’t gotten as much love as other teams this year in the rankings due to the fact that their underlying numbers aren’t as strong as the other top teams. The only category in which they rank in the top 10 is in SV%, with the rest coming in the bottom half of the league. Of course, when the team continues to win, their winning percentage continues to push them up the rankings as we see this week.
The surprise MVP so far this season? David Perron. He leads his team in points and is tied for the league lead in game winning goals.
The Flyers had an impressive week, going 4-0-0. Every single point matters for the Flyers when it comes to keeping pace in the Metro, so getting eight of eight was welcomed. Another surprise team leading scorer? Travis Konecny, who has 25 points in 27 games. Quite the run for the young kid, and also quite the run for Brian Elliott who has been a great presence for the Flyers.
The Colorado Avalanche got a massive boost with Mikko Rantanen returning to the lineup this week, and as a result of an undefeated 3-0-0 week found themselves jumping eight spots. Nathan MacKinnon picked up the slack in his teammate’s absence, but look for them to return to their dangerous selves we saw at the beginning of the season. Is it too early to give Cale Makar the Calder Trophy as well?
No one could have predicted it, but the Tampa Bay Lightning fell a whopping ten spots. After leading the league all of last season, a drop that big stings. The Montreal Canadiens fell nine spots, going on a worrying losing streak in the middle of it all.
Three Pacific Division teams are turning things around and making the Pacific playoff race already much more enticing than it has any business being. The Vegas Golden Knights, San Jose Sharks, Calgary Flames all saw reasonable jumps after successful weeks.
Further down the rankings, the Ottawa Senators were not able to replicate their same success as Week 8. Being our biggest gainers last week, jumping 11 spots, they saw their fortunes reversed falling the exact same amount. An 0-4-0 week will do that to a team, but the previous glimmer of hope has faded away.
Minnesota Wild (+10)
So much for the early season struggles the Wild were facing, as they have been firing on all cylinders as of late. A 3-0-1 week, and 6-1-3 in their last 10, the Wild have jumped from last in the Western Conference to playoff contention. Ryan Suter is heating up offensively, with seven points in his past six games, and Alex Stalock has stepped up in the absence of Devan Dubnyk. The Wild still have a little more to climb, but they are above .500 now and trending in the right direction.
Vancouver Canucks (-14)
A tough week for the Canucks, who were flying so high as of late. A 1-3-0 week, which isn’t as bad in comparison to other teams, caused the Canucks to drop 14 spots. Elias Pettersson, Brock Boeser, and Quinn Hughes continue to have outstanding seasons, but a few tough outings during a busy week caused them to trend in the opposite direction. This is more of a result of other teams having better weeks, causing the drop to occur, as the Canucks still have excellent underlying numbers. String together some wins and they can expect a bounce back as soon as next week.
What are your thoughts? Are you surprised where your team landed this week? Let us know at @wincolumnblog.
All data courtesy of Natural Stat Trick.
TWC Power Rankings: