Power Rankings

TWC Power Rankings: Week 16

Welcome back to the TWC Power Rankings!

Here at TWC, we use a statistical model to effectively rank teams on a week to week basis. The model takes into effect winning percentages, CF%, SCF%, HDCF% as well as SV%. Each statistical category is weighed and scored differently, giving each team a unique TWC Score that determines their ranking after each week. The formula puts the highest emphasis on winning percentages over other statistics. All numbers are taken in all situations, to incorporate special teams into the fray.

We got some excellent feedback over the course of last season from our readers as to how we could improve this model moving forward. We have slightly altered the weightings of the statistical categories, bust also added a large recency component to make sure that each week the teams that are riding hot streaks are more appropriately demonstrated in the rankings. 

Don’t like where your team is ranked? Unfortunately, they will have to turn it around on the ice, as we take zero personal opinions into effect.

Have any suggestions for the TWC Power Rankings for next season? Leave us a comment and let us know!

RankChangeTeamTeam NameLast WeekRecordTWCScore
Washington Capitals3-0-033-11-5811.5
Pittsburgh Penguins3-1-031-13-5788.4
Tampa Bay Lightning2-1-029-15-4760.5
St Louis Blues1-1-130-11-8748.7
Colorado Avalanche2-0-127-15-6747.4
Boston Bruins1-2-128-10-12743.5
Florida Panthers2-0-026-16-5734.8
Columbus Blue Jackets4-0-026-16-8729.8
Edmonton Oilers2-0-026-18-5725
Carolina Hurricanes1-2-128-18-3720
Philadelphia Flyers3-1-026-17-6719.1
Dallas Stars1-2-027-17-4712.5
New York Islanders1-3-128-15-5706.1
Toronto Maple Leafs1-1-125-17-7705.4
Vancouver Canucks2-1-027-18-4700.7
Vegas Golden Knights1-1-125-19-7700.4
Chicago Blackhawks4-0-024-20-6686.9
Minnesota Wild2-1-022-20-6685.6
Montreal Canadiens3-1-022-21-7684.1
Calgary Flames1-2-026-19-5682.1
Nashville Predators1-2-022-18-7672.3
Buffalo Sabres2-1-022-20-7662.3
Arizona Coyotes1-2-026-20-5661.9
New York Rangers2-1-023-20-4659.4
Winnipeg Jets1-2-025-20-4643
Anaheim Ducks2-1-019-24-5632.4
Ottawa Senators1-1-117-23-8610.9
Los Angeles Kings0-2-118-27-5594.7
San Jose Sharks0-3-021-25-4588.2
New Jersey Devils0-3-017-24-7579
Detroit Red Wings0-2-112-33-4490

Power Ranking Notables

The Washington Capitals are back on top after only a few short weeks. An undefeated 3-0-0 week saw a number of key moments propel them to be the first 70 point team in the NHL this season. First off, Alex Ovechkin once again proved to the hockey world he may actually have a shot at catching Wayne Gretzky‘s goal record in the NHL after posting back-to-back hat tricks. Not to be outdone, rookie goaltender Ilya Samsonsov posted a 3-0-0 record, in only two starts. With a shutout against the Carolina Hurricanes, and a relief victory against the New York Islanders, the rookie is making a case to start the next stretch of games. All in all, a great week for the Capitals and well earned number one position.

Even though Sidney Crosby returned from injury and immediately returned to his usual on ice wizardry, the Pittsburgh Penguins fell down one spot to the second position. Of course, this is more related to the fact that the Capitals had a perfect 3-0-0 records which gives them the edge in the model. The Metropolitan Division continues to impress and the Capitals and Penguins look to be on a potential collision course to get to the finals.

Rounding out the top five in our rankings are the Tampa Bay Lightning, St. Louis Blues, and Colorado Avalanche. The Lighting continue to ride their torrid stretch over the last month to push themselves to just six points behind the Atlantic Division leading Boston Bruins. With two games in hand on the B’s, don’t be surprised if the Lightning jump into the lead at some point. The St. Louis Blues, although going 1-1-1, only dropped one spot and continue to pace the Western Conference. The team directly behind them on our rankings is also the team chasing them in the division: The Avalanche. After a decent 2-0-1 week, the Avs jumped eight spots into the top five; a position they became accustomed to at the start of the season.

Moving down the list, the Florida Panthers, Columbus Blue Jackets, and Edmonton Oilers all enjoyed decent bumps after a combined perfect 8-0-0 week. The Panthers have won four straight games, jumping them into the final divisional spot in the Atlantic. Not to be outdone, the Columbus Blue Jackets, with the assistance of Elvis Merzlikins‘ miracle play, have won five straight games. Safe to say that after the Blue Jackets lost their leading scorer and number one goaltender in the offseason, no one saw them making this kind of run. A fantastic story that no longer looks like a fluke. The Oilers fared well without Zack Kassian last week, going 2-0-0, and will be ready to let loose against the Calgary Flames after the All-Star break.

The Carolina Hurricanes, New York Islanders, and Nashville Predators did not fare as well in Week 16. Going a combined 3-7-2, the teams’ rough week set them all back in different ways. The Islanders lost ground on the Penguins and Capitals in the Metro, the Hurricanes lost ground on solidifying a playoff spot, and the Predators fell even further out of the playoff picture. The Canes had the roughest week after losing Dougie Hamilton to a broken leg, but got a bit of a boost with Justin Williams‘ shootout winner last night.

Moving down the list, it was an even worse week for our bottom four teams. All four were unable to secure a single victory and are most likely looking forward to this season coming to a close quickly.

Biggest Gainer & Loser

Chicago Blackhawks (+10)

Written off at the start of the year, the Blackhawks have caught a second wind and are on the heels of five straight victories. Now sitting only three points out of a playoff spot in the Western Conference, the Blackhawks have the tools to make things interesting. Both Robin Lehner and Corey Crawford are playing like number one goaltenders, Brandon Saad just returned from injury, and rookie Dominik Kubalik is adding some extreme scoring. Throw in Patrick Kane just securing his 1000th NHL point, and this team will be one to look out for down the stretch.

Calgary Flames (-11)

The Calgary Flames are one of the more Jekyll and Hyde teams in the league this year, and last week was the perfect example. With three games against Atlantic Division opponents, the Flames started their week by seeing their five game win streak come to an end against the Montreal Canadiens in a shutout loss. They followed that up with a shootout victory against the high flying Toronto Maple Leafs, thanks in large part to an otherworldly performance by David Rittich. They then closed their week by being embarrassed by the Ottawa Senators, a sentence not too common this year. Due to their rollercoaster performances, and only four goals total all week, they lose serious ground in our rankings, dropping 11 spots.

What are your thoughts? Are you surprised where your team landed this week? Let us know at @wincolumnblog.

All data courtesy of Natural Stat Trick.

TWC Power Rankings:

Week 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15

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