Welcome back to the TWC Power Rankings!
Here at TWC, we use a statistical model to effectively rank teams on a week to week basis. The model takes into effect winning percentages, CF%, SCF%, HDCF% as well as SV%. Each statistical category is weighed and scored differently, giving each team a unique TWC Score that determines their ranking after each week. The formula puts the highest emphasis on winning percentages over other statistics. All numbers are taken in all situations, to incorporate special teams into the fray.
We got some excellent feedback over the course of last season from our readers as to how we could improve this model moving forward. We have slightly altered the weightings of the statistical categories, bust also added a large recency component to make sure that each week the teams that are riding hot streaks are more appropriately demonstrated in the rankings.
Don’t like where your team is ranked? Unfortunately, they will have to turn it around on the ice, as we take zero personal opinions into effect.
Have any suggestions for the TWC Power Rankings for next season? Leave us a comment and let us know!
|Rank||Change||Team||Team Name||Last Week||Record||TWCScore|
|2||+3||New York Islanders||3-0-0||22-7-2||805.4|
|8||+3||St Louis Blues||2-1-0||20-8-6||738.5|
|10||+9||Vegas Golden Knights||3-1-0||18-13-5||714|
|13||+4||Tampa Bay Lightning||2-2-0||16-12-3||699.8|
|17||+5||Toronto Maple Leafs||2-1-0||16-14-4||683.2|
|22||+8||Los Angeles Kings||3-0-1||14-18-3||657.5|
|23||+4||Columbus Blue Jackets||1-0-2||12-14-6||652.3|
|24||-1||New York Rangers||1-1-1||16-12-4||650.8|
|28||-2||San Jose Sharks||1-2-0||16-17-2||623|
|30||-1||New Jersey Devils||1-2-0||10-17-5||580.8|
|31||–||Detroit Red Wings||2-2-0||9-23-3||516.9|
Power Ranking Notables
For the first time in what feels like months, we have a change in the top two of the TWC Power Rankings. After a 1-1-1 week that dropped them from top spot in Week 10, the Boston Bruins followed it up with a disappointing 1-3-0 week. This was a fairly significant blow to the Bruins’ overall TWCScore, and it cost them seven spots in the rankings. There isn’t reason to panic just yet though, the Bruins are still second overall in league standings and one of the strongest teams top to bottom, they’re just in a bit of a rut right now. There’s no reason to expect their losing skid to continue.
The model of consistency this season, the Washington Capitals, retain top spot with another impressive 2-1-0 week. The Capitals are the Tampa Bay Lightning of 2019-20. Through 34 games this season, the Capitals have 53 points. Through the Lightning’s first 34 games last season they had 52 points. It’s actually incredible how good the Caps are this season, and they’re easily the runaway favourite for the Stanley Cup right now.
The New York Islanders are the new number two after a perfect 3-0-0 week vaulted them to second on the rankings. The Isles really don’t scream elite, but they have been very effective this season. I’m not sure how they manage to do it so often, but all they do is win. No matter what.
Finally, it looks like the Vegas Golden Knights are hitting their stride. a 3-1-0 week moves them up nine spots to 10th overall in this week’s rankings, and they’ve put together a strong stretch of games lately. It always felt like they were underachieving this season, but that might be a thing of the past now. All the big guns are scoring, Marc-Andre Fleury is a Vezina candidate, and in a relatively weak and undecided Pacific Division, the Knights could find themselves at the top of it soon. They’re definitely a team to keep an eye on.
Joining them just two spots later is the second Pacific Divison team: the Calgary Flames. The Flames went on an incredible seven game winning streak before having it snapped by the surging Carolina Hurricanes over the weekend. Geoff Ward, the new bench boss, has had a historic start to his coaching career. His 7-0-0 start was the best record in nearly 20 years, and even with the loss to the Canes, he’s still the second winningest coach in NHL history in terms of points percentage. That will obviously go down, but the coaching change is paying dividends so far.
We keep waiting for the Lightning to rocket up the rankings, but they finished last week with a mediocre 2-2-0 record, and only moved up to 13th overall. They’re starting to find their groove, but there’s a lot left to be desired with this team. Brayden Point is finally scoring with some regularity, but their big dogs need to show up more often.
Surprising, but the Minnesota Wild have climbed up to 15th , and officially are in a top half position on the rankings. They were counted out early, but the emergence of goaltender Kappo Kakhonen, along with the resurgence of veteran forwards like Eric Staal, Jason Zucker, and Mats Zuccarello, the Wild are in the playoff race.
The bottom half of the rankings have several teams that are seriously slumping right now. The Philadelphia Flyers lost all three games this week and fell 12 spots, the Nashville Predators won one game and fell four spots, the Edmonton Oilers lost all three games and fell eight spots, and the Vancouver Canucks won one game and fell 11 spots. It’s been bleak for these teams as of late, and all four had pretty good starts to the year. Are they finally settling into where they should have been all along, or is this just a short downswing before they ramp up again? It’s naive to count out Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl, so our pick for the team most likely to start winning again is the Oilers. The Predators have a strong case as well, contingent on Pekka Rinne returning to form.
The San Jose Sharks continue to be a perplexing team. They’re down two spots after winning just one of their three games this week, and even after firing their coach, they still don’t look right. Brent Burns, who has been downright elite for the past several seasons, looks like a shadow of his former self. Perhaps losing Joe Pavelski cost the Sharks more than they had thought it would. Losing your captain is one thing, but Pavelski was the heart and soul of the team, and that’s tough to replace.
The usual suspects occupy most of the bottom spots on the rankings still: The Ottawa Senators, Chicago Blackhawks, New Jersey Devils, and the Detroit Red Wings. Stick taps to the Red Wings who finally won after losing 12 straight. One team that has been near the bottom but isn’t this week is the Los Angeles Kings. They’re up eights spots to a more respectable 22nd overall after going 3-0-1 this past week. Anze Kopitar is quietly having a really good season, and he might just ruin our chances of having Drew Doughty and Matthew Tkachuk on the same all star team.
Buffalo Sabres (+10)
It’s probably safe to say that Jack Eichel is the frontrunner for the Hart Trophy at this point in the season. He’s second in goals and sixth in points overall. He’s rocking a 16 game point streak where he’s scored 15 goals and 14 assists. He has 31 points in his past 18 games. There isn’t a hotter player right now than Eichel, and the Sabres are taking his play to the bank.
The Sabres are second in the Atlantic Division and would have home ice if the playoffs started today. Without Eichel, there’s no way they’re sitting in that position, but he’s been truly dymanic this season and is a game changer every shift he’s on the ice.
Florida Panthers (-15)
The Florida Panthers have been downright disappointing this season. They lost all three of their games this week, and are now in sixth place in the Atlantic. Though he’s been better lately, Sergei Bobrovsky is rocking a 3.14 GAA and .900 SV%. He’s been anything but spectacular for the Panthers, and hasn’t lived up to his $10M price tag, at least yet. The Panthers have a lot of work to do before they can be considered playoff contenders, and even more work to do before they’re considered Cup contenders.
What are your thoughts? Are you surprised where your team landed this week? Let us know at @wincolumnblog.
All data courtesy of Natural Stat Trick.
TWC Power Rankings:
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