TWC Power Rankings: Week 4

Welcome back to the TWC Power Rankings!

Here at TWC, we use a statistical model to effectively rank teams on a week to week basis. The model takes into effect winning percentages, CF%, SCF%, HDCF% as well as SV%. Each statistical category is weighed and scored differently, giving each team a unique TWC Score that determines their ranking after each week. The formula puts the highest emphasis on winning percentages over other statistics. All numbers are taken in all situations, to incorporate special teams into the fray.

We got some excellent feedback over the course of last season from our readers as to how we could improve this model moving forward. We have slightly altered the weightings of the statistical categories, bust also added a large recency component to make sure that each week the teams that are riding hot streaks are more appropriately demonstrated in the rankings. 

Don’t like where your team is ranked? Unfortunately, they will have to turn it around on the ice, as we take zero personal opinions into effect.

Have any suggestions for the TWC Power Rankings for next season? Leave us a comment and let us know!


RankChangeTeamTeam NameLast WeekRecordTWCScore
1+5
Boston Bruins3-0-08-1-2828.7
2+6
New York Islanders3-0-08-3-0780.1
3+2
Washington Capitals2-0-18-2-3759.3
4+14
Nashville Predators3-0-07-3-1756
5+8
Carolina Hurricanes1-0-17-3-1747.2
6-5
Colorado Avalanche1-2-08-2-1742.9
7+4
Vancouver Canucks1-0-16-3-1720.8
8+6
Florida Panthers2-0-15-2-4711
9-5
Arizona Coyotes2-1-06-3-1708.6
10+12
Philadelphia Flyers3-1-05-4-1707.2
11-4
Vegas Golden Knights2-2-08-5-0690.2
12-9
Edmonton Oilers1-2-08-3-1689.6
13-11
Buffalo Sabres2-1-09-2-1679.2
14+1
Tampa Bay Lightning1-0-15-3-2677.9
15+8
St Louis Blues3-1-06-3-3673.6
16+1
Montreal Canadiens1-1-05-4-2653.6
17+2
Columbus Blue Jackets2-1-05-4-2652.8
18-9
Pittsburgh Penguins1-2-07-5-0627.9
19-3
Calgary Flames1-1-16-5-2620.4
20-8
Toronto Maple Leafs1-2-16-5-2617
21-1
Winnipeg Jets1-1-06-6-0614
22-12
Anaheim Ducks1-3-07-6-0597.3
23+4
Minnesota Wild2-1-04-7-0579.5
24+4
Dallas Stars2-1-04-8-1570.3
25-4
Chicago Blackhawks1-2-13-5-2545.9
26
San Jose Sharks1-2-14-7-1518.2
27-2
Los Angeles Kings1-3-04-8-0516
28+2
New York Rangers1-1-13-5-1513.6
29+2
Ottawa Senators2-2-03-7-1509.7
30-6
New Jersey Devils0-1-02-5-2468.3
31-2
Detroit Red Wings0-3-13-8-1309

Power Ranking Notables

After the Colorado Avalanche held the top position for the past two weeks, we have a brand new number one team this week: the Boston Bruins. A strong undefeated 3-0-0 week with wins against the Toronto Maple Leafs, St. Louis Blues, and New York Rangers.

The Bruins are using their league-leading SV% to reinforce their strong defensive play thanks to Tuuka Rask and Jaroslav Halak. In terms of offence, David Pastrnak now leads the league in goals and he finds himself in the top ten in terms of points with his teammate Brad Marchand. The Bruins are firing on all cylinders right now.

Also a team that had a perfect 3-0-0 week, the New York Islanders, winners of seven straight games, find themselves in our second position this week. Sitting second in the Metropolitan Division, the Islanders used wins against the Philadelphia Flyers, Ottawa Senators, and Arizona Coyotes to vault up six positions. Their total team mentality is showing yet again, and the current hot streak from Matthew Barzal and Brock Nelson are helping push the Islanders up the standings.

The Washington Capitals, Nashville Predators (more on them later), and the Carolina Hurricanes round out our top five. The Hurricanes, yet again, are using top-10 advanced stats numbers to continue their way up our rankings, despite a quiet week in terms of wins.In addition to the hot starts of Dougie Hamilton and Andrei Svechnikov, the Canes will continue to trend upwards as the season progresses.

The Colorado Avalanche fell out of the top five, falling five spots, after having a losing record over a week for the first time this season. The loss of Mikko Rantanen will surely hurt the team in the short term, but Nathan MacKinnon, Gabriel Landeskog, and the rest of the Avalanche talent are up to the task in picking up the slack in Rantanen’s absence.

One of the more perplexing teams this past week has to be the Buffalo Sabres. Before the city of Buffalo, and perhaps the Bills Mafia, gets upset, there are reasons why the Sabres fell eleven spots after going 2-1-0 this past week.

As we saw last season in our model, teams that had below average underlying numbers, but a higher win percentage, still found themselves lower on the rankings.

The Sabres sit 23rd in CF%, 22nd in SCF% and 10th in HDCF%. The first two stats categories, combined with the fact that other teams simply had better weeks and better numbers, are causing the Sabres to fall. With the model accounting for recency, teams that have better overall weeks that combine winning with strong play are simply going to profit more.

Take the Philadelphia Flyers for example, a busy, but successful, 3-1-0 week saw them jump 12 spots. That makes sense, but the Flyers also rank first in CF%, SCF%, and HDCF% in all situations across the league. Their numbers back up their strong plays, which is what the model favours.

While the Sabres may have taken a bit of a tumble this week, it was more due to the fact that more teams earned wins while performing better on-ice than the Sabres did, rather than the Sabres not doing well as an isolated cause. It’s a result that we’re going to see more often this season and the Sabres are the first to take a hit.

A few Canadian teams are struggling to make ground in our rankings. The Toronto Maple Leafs, Calgary Flames, and Winnipeg Jets all sit from the 19th through 21st position. All three teams had somewhat even weeks, with no one really separating themselves. Although the latter two teams faced off in the 2019 Tim Hortons NHL Heritage Classic, all three are having a tough time. Auston Matthews and Mitch Marner are facing harsh criticism, Johnny Gaudreau and Sean Monahan aren’t playing like they did last season, and Blake Wheeler isn’t close to himself this year. These teams all need their key players to start being just that, and hopefully sooner rather than later.

Biggest Gainer

Nashville Predators (+14)

How silly of anyone to doubt the Predators this year. Another team with an undefeated week, going 3-0-0 against the Lightning, Wild, and Ducks, the Predators are hitting their stride as October comes to a close. The captain, Roman Josi, is pacing his team in his contract season, while Matt Duchene and Ryan Johansen both are lighting up the offence. A surprise return to force in Kyle Turris is also helping the team hold down second place in the Central Division.

Biggest Loser

Anaheim Ducks (-12)

A tough week for the kids from Disneyland. The Ducks went 1-3-0 this past week, and found themselves dropping twelve spots. Although their one win came against the Avalanche, the Ducks took big losses against the Golden Knights and Predators in which they were totally outplayed. Combine that with a loss against the struggling Stars and it was a week to forget in Orange County.


What are your thoughts? Are you surprised where your team landed this week? Let us know at @wincolumnblog.


Related:

TWC Power Rankings:

Week 1 | 2 | 3

All data courtesy of Natural Stat Trick.

Advertisements

2 thoughts on “TWC Power Rankings: Week 4

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Google photo

You are commenting using your Google account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s