Welcome back to the TWC Power Rankings!
Here at TWC, we use a statistical model to effectively rank teams on a week to week basis. The model takes into effect winning percentages, CF%, SCF%, HDCF% as well as SV%. Each statistical category is weighed and scored differently, giving each team a unique TWC Score that determines their ranking after each week. The formula puts the highest emphasis on winning percentages over other statistics. All numbers are taken in all situations, to incorporate special teams into the fray.
We got some excellent feedback over the course of last season from our readers as to how we could improve this model moving forward. We have slightly altered the weightings of the statistical categories, but also added a large recency component to make sure that each week the teams that are riding hot streaks are more appropriately demonstrated in the rankings.
Don’t like where your team is ranked? Unfortunately, they will have to turn it around on the ice, as we take zero personal opinions into effect.
Have any suggestions for the TWC Power Rankings for next season? Leave us a comment and let us know!
|Rank||Change||Team||Team Name||Last Week||Record||TWCScore|
|4||-1||Tampa Bay Lightning||0-0-0||29-15-4||784.1|
|5||-1||St Louis Blues||0-0-0||30-11-8||782.2|
|8||+5||New York Islanders||1-0-0||29-15-5||764|
|12||-4||Columbus Blue Jackets||1-0-0||27-16-8||746.4|
|13||+1||Toronto Maple Leafs||0-0-0||25-17-7||735|
|15||+1||Vegas Golden Knights||0-1-0||25-20-7||722|
|24||–||New York Rangers||0-1-0||23-21-4||669.9|
|27||+2||San Jose Sharks||0-0-0||21-25-4||640.1|
|28||–||Los Angeles Kings||0-0-0||18-27-5||636.3|
|30||–||New Jersey Devils||0-0-0||17-24-7||630|
|31||–||Detroit Red Wings||0-2-0||12-35-4||513.9|
Power Ranking Notables
Before jumping into the Week 17 rankings, we are fully aware that there were practically no games played last week in the NHL – therefore making certain parts of our model more difficult to hash out. Note that although some teams did move around our rankings without playing any games, but that is due to that fact that other teams did. Those playing teams either improved or hurt their underlying statistical numbers and therefore altered the non-playing teams’ positions.
The Washington Capitals retained their number one position, without even touching the ice. The Boston Bruins, after winning their lone game last week, almost made things interesting after catapulting up four spots. As a result of the Bruins jump, the Pittsburgh Penguins, Tampa Bay Lightning and St. Louis Blues all fell back one lone spot to round out the top five.
The Carolina Hurricanes and New York Islanders had the two biggest jumps of the week, after winning both of their games. Look for these two teams to battle it out down the stretch in their own division.
The real head scratcher from last week was the showing of the Florida Panthers and Columbus Blue Jackets. Both teams are in the midst of six game winning streaks, yet somehow both fell in our rankings for Week 17. How was this possible? Starting with the Panthers, this season they rank 14th in CF%, 15th in SCF%, 23rd in HDCF%, and 25th in SV%. They only rank in the top half of teams in one category, and even then it is at a very slim margin. The same can be seen with the Blue Jackets, who are 25th in CF%, 21st in SCF%, 21st in HDCF%, but rank 3rd in SV%. If it wasn’t for the stellar play of their goaltenders, our rankings may have them even lower. That being said, both teams are currently riding some serious hot streaks, and due to the nature of this week’s model it would be wise to assume we will see them heading in the other direction next week.
The Edmonton Oilers and Calgary Flames were headed in opposite directions on our rankings this past week, even though they played no games. They both are on a collision course to play twice over the next seven days and the fireworks are sure to go off. Will be interesting to see who bests who in Week 18.
Other than that, there was limited movement near the bottom this time around. Check back next week for far more action in the TWC Power Rankings including the returns of the Biggest Gainer and Loser!
What are your thoughts? Are you surprised where your team landed this week? Let us know at @wincolumnblog.
All data courtesy of Natural Stat Trick.
TWC Power Rankings: