TWC Power Rankings: Week 3

Welcome back to the TWC Power Rankings!

Here at TWC, we use a statistical model to effectively rank teams on a week to week basis. The model takes into effect winning percentages, CF%, SCF%, HDCF% as well as SV%. Each statistical category is weighed and scored differently, giving each team a unique TWC Score that determines their ranking after each week. The formula puts the highest emphasis on winning percentages over other statistics. All numbers are taken in all situations, to incorporate special teams into the fray.

We got some excellent feedback over the course of last season from our readers as to how we could improve this model moving forward. We have slightly altered the weightings of the statistical categories, bust also added a large recency component to make sure that each week the teams that are riding hot streaks are more appropriately demonstrated in the rankings. 

Don’t like where your team is ranked? Unfortunately, they will have to turn it around on the ice, as we take zero personal opinions into effect.

Have any suggestions for the TWC Power Rankings for next season? Leave us a comment and let us know!


RankChangeTeamTeam NameLast WeekRecordTWCScore
1
Colorado Avalanche3-0-17-0-1868.5
2+2
Buffalo Sabres3-1-07-1-1799.8
3-1
Edmonton Oilers2-1-17-1-1772.9
4+14
Arizona Coyotes3-0-04-2-1748.1
5+5
Washington Capitals3-1-06-2-2746.1
6+1
Boston Bruins1-0-25-1-2740.6
7+2
Vegas Golden Knights2-1-06-3-0733.1
8+18
New York Islanders3-0-05-3-0729
9-1
Pittsburgh Penguins2-1-06-3-0725.1
10-4
Anaheim Ducks2-2-06-3-0715.2
11+1
Vancouver Canucks3-1-05-3-0712.3
12+3
Toronto Maple Leafs2-1-05-3-1699.1
13-8
Carolina Hurricanes1-2-06-3-0689.4
14+11
Florida Panthers2-0-13-2-3682.4
15+4
Tampa Bay Lightning2-1-04-3-1653.4
16+8
Calgary Flames3-1-05-4-1652.3
17-4
Montreal Canadiens2-2-04-3-2650.6
18-7
Nashville Predators1-1-14-3-1638.7
19+1
Columbus Blue Jackets1-0-23-3-2638
20-4
Winnipeg Jets1-2-05-5-0595.2
21+9
Chicago Blackhawks2-1-02-3-1593.2
22-19
Philadelphia Flyers0-3-02-3-1589.4
23-9
St Louis Blues0-1-23-2-3582.1
24+5
New Jersey Devils2-1-02-4-2557.7
25-3
Los Angeles Kings1-2-03-5-0553.5
26-3
San Jose Sharks1-1-03-5-0541
27+4
Minnesota Wild2-2-02-6-0492.5
28
Dallas Stars1-3-02-7-1469.7
29-12
Detroit Red Wings0-3-03-5-0464.9
30-9
New York Rangers0-3-02-4-0423.8
31-4
Ottawa Senators0-2-11-5-1420.2

Power Ranking Notables

Week three of the TWC Power Rankings has come and gone, and for the first time this season we have a repeat number one team: the Colorado Avalanche. The Avalanche are the only team left in the NHL that has yet to lose in regulation, and after dismantling the Tampa Bay Lightning, they truly look to be in a league of their own. Nathan MacKinnon and Mikko Rantanen lead the way in points, but newcomers Andre Burakovsky, Joonas Donskoi, and Nazem Kadri are all contributing huge numbers at the moment. Add in rookie Cale Makar to the mix, and the Avalanche are just playing some dynamic and lethal hockey at the moment.

The second and third place spots are taken by two teams that I’m sure no one saw coming this season. The Buffalo Sabres and Edmonton Oilers continue to lead their divisions thanks in large parts to their big guns. Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl, and league-leading goal scorer James Neal continue to pace the Oilers, while Jack Eichel, Rasmus Dahlin, and Victor Olofsson are all having impressive starts. Throw in some depth pieces for both teams and they look to be complete opposites of last season.

More of a surprise in fourth place would be the surging Arizona Coyotes. After a 3-0-0 week, with wins against Winnipeg, Nashville, and Ottawa, the Coyotes ended up jumping 14 spots this week. It unfortunately wasn’t good enough for the biggest gainer honours, but watch out for them as Phil Kessel is just heating up in the desert.

The Washington Capitals, Boston Bruins, and Vegas Golden Knights all jumped a few spots this week. The Capitals being the biggest benefactors after going 3-1-0, thanks in large part to the league-leading scorer in John Carlson. Easily an “way-too-early” pick for the Norris in the young season, Carlson is providing the Capitals with tremendous offensive power from the back-end.

The Florida Panthers, Calgary Flames, and Chicago Blackhawks all enjoyed bumps this past week, while the likes of the Nashville Predators, Carolina Hurricanes, and St. Louis Blues all struggled. Early dividends in the new model are seen with lots of movement across the board; with many of these fluctuations credited to the model being better at incorporating recency compared to last season.

Finally as we look at the bottom of our list, the Detroit Red Wings, New York Rangers, and Ottawa Senators all went winless last week. After promising starts for all three teams, less so for the Senators, all three have started to come back down to reality a bit. The Rangers have still only played six games, therefore still have tons of time to fix things up, but the other two look to have faltered. Lots of time left and you hope they can make the jump out of the bottom as soon as possible.

Biggest Gainer

New York Islanders (+18)

The Rangers may have suffered this week, but the Islanders sure had a huge bounce back. Going 3-0-0 with wins against Columbus, St. Louis, and Winnipeg, the Islanders once again were able to grind out wins and now have the longest win streak in the NHL at four games. What is more interesting is they are doing it by committee. The Islanders only have two players in the top 100 in NHL scoring: Mathew Barzal and Brock Nelson. Barzal will look to jump up that list a bit more, as he only sits in 64th right now, but the fact the team is able to get wins, especially in extra time, shows they could be a team to watch moving forward.

Biggest Loser

Philadelphia Flyers (-19)

After starting this season at the top of the rankings, the Flyers took a disastrous tumble to 22nd spot this week. Something plaguing the Flyers the last two weeks was the fact they hadn’t played many games, and after doubling their GP this week and going 0-3-0 this week, their win percentage simply took a nosedive. They still have time to make things up, but they are no longer the number one team on our list.


What are your thoughts? Are you surprised where your team landed this week? Let us know at @wincolumnblog.


Related:

TWC Power Rankings:

Week 1 | 2 |

All data courtesy of Natural Stat Trick.

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2 thoughts on “TWC Power Rankings: Week 3

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