Flames Penalty Kill Examination

Preseason matchups are always a source of great contention. Some fans will be adamant that they don’t actually matter, whereas others are convinced that they do.

The Flames started the 2026–27 Preseason with a 4–2 defeat at the Saddledome to the Seattle Kraken. A double from Aydar Suniev was not enough to keep the Flames in the game. One way to look at Seattle’s four goals is that only one came in a straightforward five-on-five, which is good. On the flip side, however, two came from power plays, and the other from an empty-net goal.

Some will tell you that none of this matters, whereas others might point to it as a sign of struggle going into the season.

Whilst empty-net goals are not ideal, risking them is a necessary evil if you’re chasing the game. However, two power play goals for the Kraken are quite worrying.

Penalty-kills have been a surprising strength for the Flames in recent years, but that trend is likely to be tested going forward.

So, what does the past potentially tell us about the future?

The oddly above-average Flames

Even though the Flames have been on a downward trend for years, the penalty kill has remained unusually consistent.

Since the start of the 2021–22 season, the Flames have achieved an above-NHL-average penalty kill in all seasons, with the exception being 2024–25.

In 2021–22, the NHL average for penalty killing was at 79.4%, with the Flames sitting at 83.2%. In the following year, the average was 78.7%, and the Flames sat at 82.6%. Despite a poor 2023–24, Calgary still achieved 80.8% on the penalty kill, against the NHL average of 79%.

In 2024–25, Detroit’s shocking 70.1% penalty kill dragged the average down to 78.4%. Despite that, and narrowly missing out on the Playoffs, the Flames weren’t much better. The Flames’ 76.1% that year is the only time the 80% barrier wasn’t surpassed.

Last season, the penalty kill returned to above 80%, specifically 80.4%.

The big question is who will be on the penalty kill this season.

So, who will likely be on the penalty kill this year?

While there is a lot still up for debate, the penalty kill is likely to be a rotation of a set group of players.

Injuries and suspensions pending, it’s likely that four defencemen will be part of the group. Jacob Middleton, Zach Whitecloud, Yan Kuznetsov, and Kevin Bahl are the projected four. With Nemec and Parekh likely to be more focused on their offensive defenceman roles, it’s likely they’ll be saved from the penalty kill.

It’s also unlikely that Carson Carels will be exposed to the penalty kill this early, if he makes the NHL squad.

In terms of the forwards, it’s Mikael Backlund, Joel Farabee, Yegor Sharangovich, and Jonathan Huberdeau as the consistent faces.

Final Thoughts

While nothing is guaranteed, many expect the Flames to struggle this year. Already conceding two power play goals in the first game of preseason isn’t a great sign of things to come.

Various models suggest the Flames are likely to finish with a 77.98% penalty kill.

Whether this is enough to keep them away from the bottom of the NHL or not is unclear, but it is unlikely. I’m also unconvinced that we’ll see many shorthanded goals this season, as none of those forwards are historically high scorers.

At least those on Team Tank will be happy.