Welcome back to the TWC Power Rankings!
Here at TWC, we use a statistical model to effectively rank teams on a week to week basis. The model takes into effect winning percentages, CF%, SCF%, HDCF% as well as SV%. Each statistical category is weighed and scored differently, giving each team a unique TWC Score that determines their ranking after each week. The formula puts the highest emphasis on winning percentages over other statistics. All numbers are taken in all situations, to incorporate special teams into the fray.
We got some excellent feedback over the course of last season from our readers as to how we could improve this model moving forward. We have slightly altered the weightings of the statistical categories, bust also added a large recency component to make sure that each week the teams that are riding hot streaks are more appropriately demonstrated in the rankings.
Don’t like where your team is ranked? Unfortunately, they will have to turn it around on the ice, as we take zero personal opinions into effect.
Have any suggestions for the TWC Power Rankings for next season? Leave us a comment and let us know!
|Rank||Change||Team||Team Name||Last Week||Record||TWCScore|
|1||+1||New York Islanders||2-0-0||14-3-1||846|
|14||-11||St Louis Blues||0-1-2||12-4-5||702.2|
|15||-6||Tampa Bay Lightning||1-1-0||9-6-2||700.2|
|19||–||San Jose Sharks||3-0-0||10-10-1||680|
|20||-2||Vegas Golden Knights||1-2-0||10-9-3||667.4|
|23||+8||Los Angeles Kings||3-0-0||8-11-1||650.4|
|24||+5||Columbus Blue Jackets||1-0-1||7-8-4||644.5|
|25||–||New Jersey Devils||2-1-0||7-8-4||631.1|
|27||-12||Toronto Maple Leafs||0-3-0||9-9-4||621.7|
|29||-8||New York Rangers||1-2-0||8-8-2||604.1|
|31||-1||Detroit Red Wings||1-0-2||7-12-3||580.7|
Power Ranking Notables
The biggest change made to our model in the offseason was adding in a bigger recency component to account for teams riding hot and cool streaks. This recency is extremely present in this week’s rankings, as we see a ton of teams rising and falling after contrasting weeks.
The New York Islanders are finally on top of the TWC Power Rankings. Even after their 10 game winning streak, it was shocking to not see the Islanders at the top of our rankings, but the Capitals and Bruins kept ruining the party. Finally, after a 2-0-0 week, the Islanders are comfortably in the top spot. Although they still trail the Capitals in the standings, the Islanders have four games in hand, which plays in their favour.
The Capitals remain close behind in our rankings after losing their top spot, even after a 2-1-1 week. The Boston Bruins, Carolina Hurricanes, and Montreal Canadiens round out the top five this week. More on the Hurricanes later, but the Bruins and Canadiens continue to impress. Boston hasn’t been playing as well as they have been, but a dominant win against the Toronto Maple Leafs put them back in the right direction. David Pastrnak and Brad Marchand continue to pace the offence with no signs of slowing down at all. The Canadiens on the other hand are a welcomed surprise at the top of our rankings. Carey Price is back playing like his former self, Tomas Tatar is pacing his team in points, and Shea Weber is proving that maybe Montreal did win the P.K. Subban trade after all. The only concern right now is the fact that Jonathan Drouin will miss some time, but for now the team is riding high.
Continuing down our list, the Dallas Stars have rebounded immensely after an atrocious start. The Arizona Coyotes continue to stymie teams with their defensive play and outstanding goaltending tandem of Darcy Kuemper and Antti Raanta. The Blackhawks also got a nice bump after a perfect 3-0-0 week and have themselves back in the playoff hunt.
The Tampa Bay Lightning, Philadelphia Flyers, and St. Louis Blues did not fair as well last week. Going a combined 1-3-4 last week, the teams lost ground in both the standings and in our rankings. Another team that hasn’t been fairing as well? The Nashville Predators. A winless 0-2-0 week, putting them 4-4-2 over their past 10, the Predators now find themselves out of a playoff spot and slowly falling down the standings. The Preds haven’t been playing bad hockey, but just like a few other teams in the league, the consistency has been an issue. In an improved Western Conference, the Preds have a tougher field to deal with.
Jumping to the bottom of our rankings, it’s a nightmare for two Canadian teams. The Calgary Flames sit in the 26th position, more on them later, and the Toronto Maple Leafs sit in the 27th spot. A combined 0-6-0 will do that to two teams who were poised for so much more early in this season. The Leafs have lost five straight games, the last four being in regulation. With Mitch Marner out, the Leafs need more from their top six. The same can be said of the Flames, whose top duo of Johnny Gaudreau and Sean Monahan continue to struggle offensively; the Flames haven’t scored in two straight games. The spotlight is on both teams to get back on the right track, and it’s extremely likely that both teams will look to shake things up in order to achieve that.
Carolina Hurricanes (+22)
After a 0-3-0 last week, which dropped them 20 spots, the Hurricanes went a perfect 3-0-0 this week having them jump right back into the conversation of tops teams in the TWC Power Rankings. The Canes are top three across CF%, SCF%, and HDCF%, which gives them a huge boost in their TWCScore. The recent hot streak has them back into third place in the Metropolitan Division, and fourth on our rankings.
Calgary Flames (-15)
Things are not looking good for the Flames. A 0-3-0 week, including back-to-back shutout losses against Arizona and Vegas being outscored 9-0, the Flames are reeling in the Western Conference playoff race. After being such analytical darlings last season, the Flames are in the middle of the pack in 2019-20, which doesn’t help their ranking here as they fall to our 26th position.
What are your thoughts? Are you surprised where your team landed this week? Let us know at @wincolumnblog.
All data courtesy of Natural Stat Trick.
TWC Power Rankings: