TWC Power Rankings: Week 1

Welcome back to the TWC Power Rankings!

Here at TWC, we use a statistical model to effectively rank teams on a week to week basis. The model takes into effect winning percentages, CF%, SCF%, HDCF% as well as SV%. Each statistical category is weighed and scored differently, giving each team a unique TWC Score that determines their ranking after each week. The formula puts the highest emphasis on winning percentages over other statistics. All numbers are taken in all situations, to incorporate special teams into the fray.

We got some excellent feedback over the course of last season from our readers as to how we could improve this model moving forward. We have slightly altered the weightings of the statistical categories, bust also added a large recency component to make sure that each week the teams that are riding hot streaks are more appropriately demonstrated in the rankings. 

Don’t like where your team is ranked? Unfortunately, they will have to turn it around on the ice, as we take zero personal opinions into effect.

Have any suggestions for the TWC Power Rankings for next season? Leave us a comment and let us know!

Rank	Change	Team		Last Week	Record	TWCScore
1	–		Philadelphia Flyers	1-0-0	1-0-0	1059.6
2	–		Buffalo Sabres	2-0-0	2-0-0	1043.2
3	–		Vegas Golden Knights	2-0-0	2-0-0	1035.7
4	–		Anaheim Ducks	2-0-0	2-0-0	1034.0
5	–		Boston Bruins	2-0-0	2-0-0	1033.3
6	–		Carolina Hurricanes	3-0-0	3-0-0	1030.7
7	–		Colorado Avalanche	2-0-0	2-0-0	1020.2
8	–		Edmonton Oilers	2-0-0	2-0-0	985.5
9	–		New York Rangers	2-0-0	2-0-0	985.3
10	–		Detroit Red Wings	2-0-0	2-0-0	978.3
11	–		Washington Capitals	2-0-1	2-0-1	960.3
12	–		Toronto Maple Leafs	2-0-1	2-0-1	917.2
13	–		St Louis Blues	1-0-1	1-0-1	862.6
14	–		Montreal Canadiens	1-0-1	1-0-1	840.4
15	–		Nashville Predators	1-1-0	1-1-0	758.3
16	–		Calgary Flames	1-1-0	1-1-0	731.7
17	–		Tampa Bay Lightning	1-1-1	1-1-1	728.3
18	–		New York Islanders	1-1-0	1-1-0	727.9
19	–		Pittsburgh Penguins	1-1-0	1-1-0	704.5
20	–		Florida Panthers	1-1-0	1-1-0	694.1
21	–		Winnipeg Jets	1-2-0	1-2-0	603.4
22	–		New Jersey Devils	0-1-1	0-1-1	542.8
23	–		Arizona Coyotes	0-2-0	0-2-0	435.3
24	–		Vancouver Canucks	0-2-0	0-2-0	402.7
25	–		Dallas Stars	0-3-0	0-3-0	389.3
26	–		San Jose Sharks	0-3-0	0-3-0	385.8
27	–		Chicago Blackhawks	0-1-0	0-1-0	384.0
28	–		Columbus Blue Jackets	0-2-0	0-2-0	382.6
29	–		Ottawa Senators	0-2-0	0-2-0	377.6
30	–		Minnesota Wild	0-2-0	0-2-0	377.2
31	–		Los Angeles Kings	0-1-0	0-1-0	366.4

Power Ranking Notables

Week one of the TWC Power Rankings, and there are already several interesting placements for some teams. Of course it goes without saying; the sample sizes are extremely small. These rankings will stabilize as more games get played, and it’s important not to get too carried away with placements this early in the season.

Starting off with our number one ranked team to start the season, the Philadelphia Flyers, are dealing with one of the smallest sample sizes. Having only played one game due to the NHL Global Series, the Flyers’ one win has them starting out on top of the rankings. This doesn’t necessarily mean they shouldn’t be there, as their offseason additions of Justin Braun, Matt Niskanen, and Kevin Hayes, plus a full year of Carter Hart makes one of the most improved teams in the league. Expect some drop off next week due to more games on the schedule, but the Flyers will be a fun team to watch this year.

In addition to the Flyers, nine other teams have yet to lose a game through the opening half-week of the season. The Vegas Golden Knights, Boston Bruins, Carolina Hurricanes, and Colorado Avalanche don’t really come as a huge shock to be sitting in the top ten as of right now, and most will probably continue to reside there as the season moves on. The bigger surprises are the Buffalo Sabres, Edmonton Oilers, New York Rangers, and Detroit Red Wings, who are all off to excellent starts this season.

The teams that are expected to fall the furthest are definitely the Sabres, Oilers, and Red Wings, but all three teams boast impressive top lines. Sabres’ rookie Victor Olofsson has been nothing short of impressive alongside Jack Eichel and looks to have reinvigorated the Sabres’ offense. Ditto for the Oilers, as new addition James Neal has scored two goals already, and looks much closer to the real deal than he did the entirety of last season. Even the Red Wings look to have a dynamite top line with Anthony Mantha and Tyler Bertuzzi flanking budding superstar Dylan Larkin. Maybe these teams will surprise everyone this year and stay near the top of the rankings.

The New York Rangers are probably the safest bet to stay near the top though, as Artemi Panarin has clicked instantly with Mika Zibanejad, who currently leads the NHL with eight points over two games played. They’re a sneaky team this year and could make some serious noise in the Metro.

Moving down the list, there isn’t much excitement in the Western Conference for the Dallas Stars and San Jose Sharks. Both teams project to contend for their division titles, but unfortunately start the season 0-3-0. The Stars added in the offseason again, but newcomer Joe Pavelski has yet to find the back of the net. Last night’s loss against the Red Wings would have been crushing, but there is still tons of time left. The same can be said for the Sharks, who were without two of their best players through the first three games. Evander Kane and Erik Karlsson both missed the opening games, for completely different reasons, which makes things difficult to get going, especially against a team like the Golden Knights. There is no need to hit the panic button at all for these squads, but it’s certainly not the start they wanted.

Finally, at the bottom of our rankings there doesn’t look to be any major surprises. The Columbus Blue Jackets, Ottawa Senators, Minnesota Wild, and Los Angeles Kings look to be fighting an uphill battle this season. It’s up to them to prove the doubters wrong, but so far things look to be as expected.

Biggest Gainer and Loser

Check back next week to see who rises and falls the most in our rankings!

What are your thoughts? Are you surprised where your team landed this week? Let us know at @wincolumnblog.

All data courtesy of Natural Stat Trick.