Welcome back to the TWC Power Rankings!
Here at TWC, we use a statistical model to effectively rank teams on a week to week basis. The model takes into effect winning percentages, CF%, SCF%, HDCF% as well as SV%. Each statistical category is weighed and scored differently, giving each team a unique TWC Score that determines their ranking after each week. The formula puts the highest emphasis on winning percentages over other statistics. All numbers are taken in all situations, to incorporate special teams into the fray.
We got some excellent feedback over the course of last season from our readers as to how we could improve this model moving forward. We have slightly altered the weightings of the statistical categories, bust also added a large recency component to make sure that each week the teams that are riding hot streaks are more appropriately demonstrated in the rankings.
Don’t like where your team is ranked? Unfortunately, they will have to turn it around on the ice, as we take zero personal opinions into effect.
Have any suggestions for the TWC Power Rankings for next season? Leave us a comment and let us know!
|Rank||Change||Team||Team Name||Last Week||Record||TWCScore|
|1||–||New York Islanders||2-0-1||16-3-2||838.5|
|8||+6||St Louis Blues||2-1-0||14-5-5||741.3|
|9||+6||Tampa Bay Lightning||2-1-0||11-7-2||715.2|
|17||+10||Toronto Maple Leafs||2-1-0||11-10-4||678.8|
|20||–||Vegas Golden Knights||1-1-1||11-10-4||672.7|
|22||+2||Columbus Blue Jackets||2-1-0||9-9-4||660.1|
|23||-4||San Jose Sharks||2-1-0||12-11-1||659.7|
|25||+4||New York Rangers||2-1-0||10-9-2||636.4|
|27||-2||New Jersey Devils||1-2-0||8-10-4||621|
|30||-7||Los Angeles Kings||1-2-0||9-13-1||609.5|
|31||–||Detroit Red Wings||0-4-0||7-16-3||503.9|
Power Ranking Notables
It took eight weeks, but it looks like there is finally some stabilization occuring in the TWC Power Rankings. The last seven weeks have been full of massive fluctuations and a handful of hot team, but it looks like the dust is finally starting to set and things are becoming much clearer in terms of which teams are taking the reins for the top spots.
The New York Islanders remain the number one team after extending their point streak to a whopping 17 games. After a 2-0-1 week, the Islanders now only sit three points behind the Washington Capitals, who rank third on our list this week, with four games in hand. If history is any indication, Thomas Greiss and the Islanders surely will be in the top spot in no time at all.
Returning to the second spot on our list, the Boston Bruins continue to pace the Atlantic Division. With David Pastrnak continuing to lead the league in goals, the Bruins aren’t going anywhere anytime soon; especially after a 3-0-0 week.
Rounding out the top five are the Carolina Hurricanes and the surging Dallas Stars. The Stars are riding a six-game winning streak, and are currently 9-0-1 in their last 10 games. Tyler Seguin and Jamie Benn are starting to heat up considerably and Ben Bishop is back to Vezina form. The surprises this season? Roope Hintz is leading the team in goals, with 10, while Miro Heiskanen sits second on the team in points with 17. The Stars were projected to be a contending team, and they are finally showing those true colours.
Just missing out on the top five is the Edmonton Oilers, who have won back-to-back games and are 6-3-1 in their past 10. Leon Draisaitl and Connor McDavid continue to be out of this world compared to the rest of the league, ranking first and second in NHL scoring. It’s already shaping into a good battle between the two players as to who will finish with the most points on the team this season. Draisaitl and McDavid have scored or assisted on 57.8% and 56.6% of the teams goals, which is an astounding stat, but it’s working for the team, as the Oilers on top in the Western Conference.
Moving down the list, the St. Louis Blues, Tampa Bay Lightning, and Vancouver Canucks all jumped into the Top 10, while the Florida Panthers, Colorado Avalanche and Montreal Canadiens all fell out of that spot. The Toronto Maple Leafs, on the heels of firing Mike Babcock, rebounded nicely with back-to-back wins and jumped up 10 spots.
Near the bottom of the list, the California teams in Anaheim and LA both dropped seven spots ranking them near the bottom. It wasn’t good enough to steal the last spot away from the Detroit Red Wings, who find themselves trailing the 30th place team by over 100 points in TWCScore.
Ottawa Senators (+11)
So much for tanking. The Ottawa Senators are riding a three game winning streak, and are 7-3-0 in their past 10. This recent hot streak has them only four points back of the final wild-card spot in the Eastern Conference. A main reason behind their recent play? Jean-Gabriel Pageau is leading his team in goals (13) and points (19). A pending UFA, Pageau is making his case to earn a big deal with the Senators. The real question remains what the Senators plan on doing the rest of the season.
Chicago Blackhawks (-12)
After a winless 0-2-1 week, the Chicago Blackhawks took the biggest hit in the rankings. Dropping 12 spots, the Blackhawks are being dragged down by brutal underlying numbers. Rankings 28th in CF%, 28th in SCF%, and 29th in HDCF%. Their SV% ranks fourth in the league right now, but it’s not enough to keep them out of a small freefall this week.
What are your thoughts? Are you surprised where your team landed this week? Let us know at @wincolumnblog.
All data courtesy of Natural Stat Trick.
TWC Power Rankings: