Power Rankings

TWC Power Rankings: Week 20

Welcome back to the TWC Power Rankings!

Here at TWC, we use a statistical model to effectively rank teams on a week to week basis. The model takes into effect winning percentages, CF%, SCF%, HDCF% as well as SV%. Each statistical category is weighed and scored differently, giving each team a unique TWC Score that determines their ranking after each week. The formula puts the highest emphasis on winning percentages over other statistics. All numbers are taken in all situations, to incorporate special teams into the fray.

We got some excellent feedback over the course of last season from our readers as to how we could improve this model moving forward. We have slightly altered the weightings of the statistical categories, but also added a large recency component to make sure that each week the teams that are riding hot streaks are more appropriately demonstrated in the rankings. 

Don’t like where your team is ranked? Unfortunately, they will have to turn it around on the ice, as we take zero personal opinions into effect.

Have any suggestions for the TWC Power Rankings for next season? Leave us a comment and let us know!

RankChangeTeamTeam NameLast WeekRecordTWCScore
Boston Bruins3-0-037-11-12809.3
Tampa Bay Lightning4-0-039-15-5806.6
Pittsburgh Penguins2-0-136-15-6788
Dallas Stars3-0-134-19-6753.1
Washington Capitals1-2-037-16-5746.8
Carolina Hurricanes1-1-133-21-4724.1
Vegas Golden Knights2-1-030-22-8720.1
Colorado Avalanche1-2-033-18-6716.4
New York Islanders2-2-033-18-6716.1
Edmonton Oilers3-1-032-21-6714.9
Philadelphia Flyers2-2-032-20-7714.6
Toronto Maple Leafs2-2-031-21-8706.2
Nashville Predators3-1-029-22-7702.4
Columbus Blue Jackets0-1-330-18-12702.2
Vancouver Canucks2-1-032-22-5693.6
St Louis Blues0-2-132-17-10691.3
Buffalo Sabres3-0-027-24-8688.3
New York Rangers3-1-030-24-4681.8
Calgary Flames2-2-030-24-6681.4
Minnesota Wild1-1-127-24-7680
Arizona Coyotes2-1-129-24-8671.3
Florida Panthers1-3-030-22-6664.6
Montreal Canadiens0-3-127-26-8647.3
San Jose Sharks2-1-026-28-4643.4
Winnipeg Jets1-2-030-25-5640.6
Los Angeles Kings2-0-021-33-5636.6
Anaheim Ducks1-1-024-27-7635.8
New Jersey Devils2-2-022-26-10627.5
Chicago Blackhawks1-3-026-25-8626.3
Ottawa Senators2-2-020-28-11613.3
Detroit Red Wings0-4-014-43-4459

Power Ranking Notables

Just when we thought the Tampa Bay Lightning had taken their reign atop the TWC Power Rankings, the Boston Bruins came right back to take it our of their hands. Regardless of where the two teams are ranked, it’s clear that they are in a league of their own. Even based off of TWC score, they were the only two teams above 800 and only a mere three points separated the two teams. Boston is 9-1-0 in their past ten games, while Tampa has extended their win streak to ten games in a row.

Both teams are in the top ten for all statistical categories, trading the higher rankings across the categories measured. Boston gets the edge in win percentage and SV%, while Tampa has the slight edge across CF%, SCF%, and HDCF%. Moral of the story? Both teams should be sharing the number one ranking. Unfortunately there has to be just one st the top and this week, the Bruins get the slight, very slight, edge.

The Pittsburgh Penguins jumped up into the number three position this week after going 2-0-1. The acquisition of Jason Zucker is already paying dividends for the team, and based on prior track record it would be safe to assume Jim Rutherford isn’t finished yet. The team has a chance this week to take the top spot in the Metropolitan Division from the Washington Capitals, which would be quite the comeback. 7-2-1 in their past ten have the Penguins absolutely rolling.

Another team that’s also rolling? The Dallas Stars. A 3-0-1 week has the Stars moving all the way up into the top five and now tied for the Western Conference lead with 74 points. Quite the turnaround for a team that started from the bottom and underwent a coaching change. What is even more impressive is that they are making their way up the standings without any player in the top 50 in NHL scoring. The team is 4th in HDCF% and 2nd in SV%, which is driving them up our rankings. Watch out Western Conference, the Stars have arrived.

The Vegas Golden Knights enjoyed a bit of bump, moving six spots into the number seven position on the rankings. This is due in large part to their outstanding underlying numbers: 2nd in CF%, 1st in SCF%, & 3rd in HDCF%. Still hanging on to the 3rd Pacific Division position, the Knights have the talent and the number to back up a long push in the post season.

Speaking of the Pacific Division, it has a new leader: the Edmonton Oilers. After losing Connor McDavid to injury, Leon Draisaitl has put the team on his back and led them to a 3-1-0 week and the number one spot in the Pacific with 70 points. Even though they technically still sit only five points out of missing the playoffs, the Oilers have the two most dominant players in the NHL right now and that is giving them enough to distance themselves from the pack.

The former number one Pacific team, the Vancouver Canucks, enjoyed a bit of a small bounce back this week after going 2-1-0. Bogged down by poor underlying numbers, the Canucks still continue to be a conundrum this season. Do they have enough to hold on?

Biggest Gainer & Loser

Buffalo Sabres (+11)

Three straight wins have the Buffalo Sabres jumping 11 spots up our rankings. Although it looks like this may be a little too late for the team, there is always a chance. Jack Eichel continues his outstanding play, and getting Jacob Olofsson back form injury is a nice added boost. There is till lots to figure out in Buffalo, but last week was a bit of a bright spot.

Montreal Canadiens (-11)

Just when we said they had a chance, Montreal followed that up with a 0-3-1 week to to push them to the same position as the Sabres. Being nine points out with no games in hand is a very tall task. It wouldn’t be surprising to see Marc Bergevin try to recoup some assets as the season heads towards another disappointing finish.

What are your thoughts? Are you surprised where your team landed this week? Let us know at @wincolumnblog.

All data courtesy of Natural Stat Trick.

TWC Power Rankings:

Week 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19

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