Welcome back to the TWC Power Rankings!
Here at TWC, we use a statistical model to effectively rank teams on a week to week basis. The model takes into effect winning percentages, CF%, SCF%, HDCF% as well as SV%. Each statistical category is weighed and scored differently, giving each team a unique TWC Score that determines their ranking after each week. The formula puts the highest emphasis on winning percentages over other statistics. All numbers are taken in all situations, to incorporate special teams into the fray.
We got some excellent feedback over the course of last season from our readers as to how we could improve this model moving forward. We have slightly altered the weightings of the statistical categories, bust also added a large recency component to make sure that each week the teams that are riding hot streaks are more appropriately demonstrated in the rankings.
Don’t like where your team is ranked? Unfortunately, they will have to turn it around on the ice, as we take zero personal opinions into effect.
Have any suggestions for the TWC Power Rankings for next season? Leave us a comment and let us know!
|Rank||Change||Team||Team Name||Last Week||Record||TWCScore|
|2||+1||New York Islanders||2-0-1||12-3-1||784.0|
|3||+2||St Louis Blues||3-0-0||12-3-3||765.8|
|9||+15||Tampa Bay Lightning||2-0-0||8-5-2||713.0|
|15||–||Toronto Maple Leafs||2-1-1||9-6-4||669.7|
|18||-5||Vegas Golden Knights||1-2-1||9-7-3||630.5|
|19||+12||San Jose Sharks||3-0-0||7-10-1||623.2|
|21||–||New York Rangers||2-1-1||7-6-2||605.1|
|25||-2||New Jersey Devils||2-2-0||5-7-4||587.2|
|29||-3||Columbus Blue Jackets||1-2-0||6-8-3||554.7|
|30||-1||Detroit Red Wings||2-2-0||6-12-1||523.1|
|31||-6||Los Angeles Kings||0-2-1||5-11-1||492.2|
Power Ranking Notables
Another week, another number one on the TWC rankings. Following a perfect 2-0-0 week, the Washington Capitals are back on top. Scoring 10 goals through their two games this week, the Capitals are one of the hottest teams in the league and are well deserving of the number one spot. They’re the only team to crack the 800 TWCScore mark, partly because they’re doing an excellent job controlling games this year; all three of their possession metrics are above the 50% mark.
The Philadelphia Flyers have worked their way up 13 spots into fourth overall, after a dismal few weeks kept them near the bottom of the rankings. They were a perfect 4-0-0 earning wins against four strong opponents, and also saw all three of their possession metrics eclipse the 54% mark for the year. The Flyers are the strongest possession team in the NHL and that points to them continuing their tear up the standings. They’ll be a team to look out for in the next few weeks; there’s no reason to believe their hot streak won’t continue. As long as their goaltending holds up, they will continue to be a very hard out for their opponents.
Joining the Flyers as one of the highest risers and another team that desperately needed some good news is the San Jose Sharks. They were off to an absolute disaster of a start to the season, and struggled in almost every area seemingly every night. However, the Sharks have quietly put together a tidy winning streak, including going a perfect 3-0-0 last week to jump 12 spots into 19th overall in the rankings. They’re still on the outside looking in, and their goaltending is still a huge question mark, but there is reason for optimism for the Sharks. Perhaps their season is turning around.
On the other side of the coin, the Vancouver Canucks, who were in fourth place last week, are down a whopping 16 spots into 20th on the rankings. While this does seem incredibly drastic, there are very good reasons for the model dropping them this far. Not only did their point percentage take a significant hit after going winless through four games and earning just a single loser point along the way, the Canucks only managed to score five goals combined in those four games. Offense is not coming easy to the Canucks right now, and they’ll need to figure out how to score if they want to get out of this slump.
And finally, the Los Angeles Kings are now owners of the basement suite of the TWC Power Rankings. They’re down six spots into 31st this week, after losing all three of their games and currently in last place in the standings. It’s going to be a long year for the Kings, but there are worse years to have a lottery pick.
The season is less than a quarter in, so the power rankings are still going to fluctuate quite a bit week to week. Once a few more weeks go by, things will likely stabilize.
Tampa Bay Lightning (+15)
Finally, the team we’ve all been waiting for to figure things out is back in the top 10. the Lightning jumped up 15 spots to ninth overall this week, after winning both their games and eight goals in the process. This could be the week that we all look back at as the turning point of the Lightning’s season.
Carolina Hurricanes (-20)
The Hurricanes were among the top teams in the league since the beginning of the season, but now find themselves in one of the worst slumps. They’re just fifth in the Metro right now, only scored four goals through their three games last week, and gave up 12 goals against. It’s not a good look when you lose to three teams that should probably be below you in the standings, and lose in such convincing fashion at that. The Hurricanes have some work to do if they want to get back to the top of the rankings.
What are your thoughts? Are you surprised where your team landed this week? Let us know at @wincolumnblog.
All data courtesy of Natural Stat Trick.