Welcome back to the TWC Power Rankings!
Here at TWC, we use a statistical model to effectively rank teams on a week to week basis. The model takes into effect winning percentages, CF%, SCF%, HDCF% as well as SV%. Each statistical category is weighed and scored differently, giving each team a unique TWC Score that determines their ranking after each week. The formula puts the highest emphasis on winning percentages over other statistics. All numbers are taken in all situations, to incorporate special teams into the fray.
We got some excellent feedback over the course of last season from our readers as to how we could improve this model moving forward. We have slightly altered the weightings of the statistical categories, but also added a large recency component to make sure that each week the teams that are riding hot streaks are more appropriately demonstrated in the rankings.
Don’t like where your team is ranked? Unfortunately, they will have to turn it around on the ice, as we take zero personal opinions into effect.
Have any suggestions for the TWC Power Rankings for next season? Leave us a comment and let us know!
|Rank||Change||Team||Team Name||Last Week||Record||TWCScore|
|1||+2||Tampa Bay Lightning||3-0-0||35-15-5||796.4|
|7||+6||New York Islanders||2-1-0||31-16-6||733|
|10||+4||St Louis Blues||1-1-1||32-15-9||727|
|11||+1||Columbus Blue Jackets||2-1-0||30-17-9||725.5|
|13||-6||Vegas Golden Knights||1-1-1||28-21-8||705.1|
|14||-9||Toronto Maple Leafs||1-2-1||29-19-8||702.6|
|21||+8||San Jose Sharks||2-0-0||24-27-4||658.4|
|22||-5||New York Rangers||2-2-0||27-23-4||657.5|
|26||+1||New Jersey Devils||2-0-1||20-24-10||646.2|
|30||–||Los Angeles Kings||0-4-0||19-33-5||565.4|
|31||–||Detroit Red Wings||2-2-0||14-39-4||500.6|
Power Ranking Notables
Last season, after spending almost the entire year atop the TWC Power Rankings, the Tampa Bay Lightning finally return to the number one position for the first time in 2019-20. With another 3-0-0 week under their belt, which extended their win streak to six games, the Lightning continue to surge towards the top of the NHL standings.
A big reason for that push? Nikita Kucherov and Steven Stamkos have the two highest point totals in 2020 with 26 and 23, respectively, in just 17 games played. It may sound like a broken record, but look out for Tampa Bay down the stretch.
Rounding out the top five are the league leading Boston Bruins, the surging Colorado Avalanche (more on them later), the Washington Capitals, and Pittsburgh Penguins. The Bruins and Capitals remain in the same spot as last week, while the Penguins fell from their number one ranking to the fifth position.
One may wonder why the Penguins, who went 1-1-0, fell four spots, while the Capitals remained in the same spot with the same record last week. This is entirely due to the change in their underlying numbers, which play into the positioning of teams in addition to win percentage.
The New York Islanders, Montreal Canadiens, and Minnesota Wild all enjoyed generous bumps this week. The Islanders, who have been struggling as of late, enjoyed a six spot jump due to a 2-1-0 week. Nestled in the middle of a heated Eastern Conference playoff race, the Islanders hold the first wild card position for the time being.
Their advantage? They hold a number of games in hand over fellow teams in the race. The Canadiens, being one of those teams, were left for dead just a few weeks ago, but after going 7-3-0 in their last ten they are right back in the hunt. While still on the outside looking in, the chance is still there for Les Habitants.
Finally, the Minnesota Wild also look to have made a mid season turnaround, now sit just four points back of a playoff spot after going 3-10 last week. The Western Conference gets even tighter thanks to the Wild’s recent surge.
The same good fortune can’t be said for the Toronto Maple Leafs, Vegas Golden Knights, and Edmonton Oilers, who all took a bit of a step back. The Leafs, who went 1-2-1, still remain in the third position in the Atlantic Division but face an uphill battle. After making a move for Jack Campbell, due to Frederik Andersen‘s injury, the Leafs look to have shored up their goaltending in the short-tem but still face a number of questions moving forward.
The Golden Knights had an up and down week, going 1-1-1 in three completely different games, but still find themselves in the Pacific Division placement. Speaking of which, the team directly above Vegas, the Edmonton Oilers, fell seven spots this week after going 1-2-0. There is limited margin for error in the Pacific Division, so even mediocre weeks could be detrimental in the race.
Biggest Gainer & Loser
Colorado Avalanche (+12)
Going 7-1-2 in their past ten games, combined with four straight wins, the Avalanche catapulted up 12 spots in our rankings. With two games in hand on the St. Louis Blues, the Avalanche have the opportunity to reclaim the Western Conference. With Nathan MacKinnon leading the charge, the Avalanche are as dangerous as they come in the NHL.
Vancouver Canucks (-12)
Although they still hold the Pacific Division lead, three straight losses has the Canucks free-falling on our rankings. Sitting in the 23rd position, the Canucks are being bogged down by poor underlying numbers: 22nd in CF%, 30th in SCF%, and 26th in HDCF%.
The Canucks are simply often on the wrong side of the statistical battle on too many occasions. They are being saved by the brilliance of Jacob Markstrom, but that is only good enough for 11th in league in terms of team SV%. In the end, all that matters are wins, but with a record of just 5-4-1 in their past 10, the Canucks are heading in the wrong direction with the rest of the Pacific hot on their tails.
What are your thoughts? Are you surprised where your team landed this week? Let us know at @wincolumnblog.
All data courtesy of Natural Stat Trick.
TWC Power Rankings: