Welcome back to the TWC Power Rankings!
Here at TWC, we use a statistical model to effectively rank teams on a week to week basis. The model takes into effect winning percentages, CF%, SCF%, HDCF% as well as SV%. Each statistical category is weighed and scored differently, giving each team a unique TWC Score that determines their ranking after each week. The formula puts the highest emphasis on winning percentages over other statistics. All numbers are taken in all situations, to incorporate special teams into the fray.
We got some excellent feedback over the course of last season from our readers as to how we could improve this model moving forward. We have slightly altered the weightings of the statistical categories, bust also added a large recency component to make sure that each week the teams that are riding hot streaks are more appropriately demonstrated in the rankings.
Don’t like where your team is ranked? Unfortunately, they will have to turn it around on the ice, as we take zero personal opinions into effect.
Have any suggestions for the TWC Power Rankings for next season? Leave us a comment and let us know!
|Rank||Change||Team||Team Name||Last Week||Record||TWCScore|
|9||-6||Vegas Golden Knights||2-2-0||4-2-0||713.5|
|14||-1||St Louis Blues||2-1-0||3-1-1||663.6|
|15||-3||Toronto Maple Leafs||1-2-0||3-2-1||656.9|
|17||-7||Detroit Red Wings||1-2-0||3-2-0||629.2|
|19||-2||Tampa Bay Lightning||1-1-0||2-2-1||597.8|
|20||+8||Columbus Blue Jackets||2-1-0||2-3-0||596.3|
|21||-12||New York Rangers||0-1-0||2-1-0||582.1|
|22||+9||Los Angeles Kings||2-2-0||2-3-0||576.6|
|23||+3||San Jose Sharks||2-1-0||2-4-0||545.6|
|26||-8||New York Islanders||1-2-0||2-3-0||535.1|
|29||-7||New Jersey Devils||0-2-1||0-3-2||408.3|
Power Ranking Notables
The Edmonton Oilers and the Colorado Avalanche take the top two spots in the power rankings this week. While many picked the Avalanche to have a breakout season following their trip to the second round last season, few had the Oilers coming out of the gates this strong.
What is interesting is that the teams are having success in very different ways. In Colorado, stars Nathan Mackinnon and Mikko Rantanen have gotten off to relatively modest starts, having both scored six points in four games. Instead, the Avalanche are getting contributions up and down the lineup, with nine different forwards having scored through the first four games.
The Oilers are doing the exact opposite. The trio of Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl, and James Neal have scored 15 of the 21 Oilers goals on the season. The bottom six forwards for the Oilers have thus far contributed very little to the offence, but with Mcdavid and Draisaitl sitting in first and second in the league in points, and Neal leading the league in goals, the Oilers best players are carrying them. Their defensive play has been impressive, having only given up 13 goals in five games, while goaltenders Mike Smith and Mikko Koskinen have done their part so far this season.
The Pittsburgh Penguins made a big leap in the rankings this week as well, jumping up 11 spots, following a week in which they had two wins and a loss. Most impressive was the different ways they have found to win games, winning two to one over Anaheim on Thursday night, and then following it up with back to back seven goal performances against Minnesota and Winnipeg on the weekend. The Pens have showed impressive depth so far this season offensively, and Sidney Crosby threw his latest punch at Father Time, starting the year with 10 points through the first six contests.
The Vegas Golden Knights and Detroit Red Wings both saw big drops in the rankings this week after mediocre results. Detroit’s top line came back down to earth this week and their offensive depth will need to improve. For Vegas, the demotion comes despite a convincing 6-2 victory over the Calgary Flames, and a win over the Kings Sunday night.
Speaking of the Flames and Kings, following their spirited tilt on Tuesday night that was filled with Drew Doughty vs Matthew Tkachuk drama, these teams went in opposite directions in the rankings. The Kings climbed 9 spots while the Flames fell 9. The Kings found their way out of the basement of the rankings with a few positive results, but two losses meant their week was only a mild success. Meanwhile the Flames followed a good comeback against the Kings, and a shootout victory against the Dallas Stars, with a really disappointing weekend that included losses to the Vegas Golden Knights and San Jose Sharks.
At the bottom of the rankings, the Minnesota Wild are the only winless team in the league, and it could be a long year in the North Star State.
Vancouver Canucks (+12)
The Canucks had two wins in their only contests of the week, including a dominant 8-2 victory over the Kings on Wednesday night. They followed that game up with a tight 3-2 victory over the Philadelphia Flyers Saturday night to cap a good bounce back week for the club. The Canucks improvement comes amid slow starts for stars Brock Boeser and Elias Pettersson, who have just five points between the two of them. The depth has helped out, and new signing J.T Miller is currently leading the team in scoring early in the season. Expect the big guns to get going sooner rather than later, and if that happens the Canucks will be an interesting team to follow all season.
New York Rangers (-12)
The Rangers have a ton of talent, particularly at the top of their roster with Artemi Panarin and Mika Zibanejad. However, they are still a young team with a lot of new faces and will need to learn what it takes to win in the NHL. With that being said, their drop in the rankings this week stems in part from their lack of games. They played only one game, and lost to the red hot Oilers. Expect the Rangers to climb back up a few spots this week as they play three games this week and have a chance to improve their position. For now, Rangers fans can look to rookie Kaapo Kakko‘s first NHL goal as a highlight from an otherwise quiet week.
What are your thoughts? Are you surprised where your team landed this week? Let us know at @wincolumnblog.
TWC Power Rankings:
All data courtesy of Natural Stat Trick.