TWC Power Rankings: Week 15

Welcome back to the TWC Power Rankings!

Here at TWC, we use a statistical model to effectively rank teams on a week to week basis. The model takes into effect winning percentages, CF%, SCF%, HDCF% as well as SV%. Each statistical category is weighed and scored differently, giving each team a unique TWC Score that determines their ranking after each week. The formula puts the highest emphasis on winning percentages over other statistics. All numbers are taken in all situations, to incorporate special teams into the fray.

We got some excellent feedback over the course of last season from our readers as to how we could improve this model moving forward. We have slightly altered the weightings of the statistical categories, bust also added a large recency component to make sure that each week the teams that are riding hot streaks are more appropriately demonstrated in the rankings. 

Don’t like where your team is ranked? Unfortunately, they will have to turn it around on the ice, as we take zero personal opinions into effect.

Have any suggestions for the TWC Power Rankings for next season? Leave us a comment and let us know!

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Rank	Change	Team	Team Name	Last Week	Record	TWCScore
1	+2		Pittsburgh Penguins	3-0-0	28-12-5	800.1
2	+6		Boston Bruins	3-0-0	27-8-11	794.9
3	+9		St Louis Blues	3-0-0	29-10-7	782.9
4	+9		Carolina Hurricanes	3-0-0	27-16-2	769.1
5	-3		Tampa Bay Lightning	3-1-0	27-14-4	764.8
6	-5		Washington Capitals	1-2-0	30-11-5	761.5
7	+2		New York Islanders	2-0-1	27-12-4	760.5
8	-4		Dallas Stars	2-1-0	26-15-4	744.8
9	+6		Calgary Flames	3-0-0	25-17-5	729.6
10	+7		Florida Panthers	2-1-0	24-16-5	703.9
11	+7		Nashville Predators	2-1-0	21-16-7	700.1
12	+4		Columbus Blue Jackets	3-1-0	22-16-8	699.5
13	-6		Colorado Avalanche	0-2-1	25-15-5	698.2
14	+6		Philadelphia Flyers	1-1-1	23-16-6	696.3
15	-1		Edmonton Oilers	2-1-0	24-18-5	693
16	-11		Toronto Maple Leafs	0-2-1	24-16-6	689
17	-6		Vancouver Canucks	2-2-0	25-17-4	683.3
18	-12		Vegas Golden Knights	0-3-0	24-18-6	673.5
19	-9		Arizona Coyotes	1-2-1	25-18-5	671.8
20	+2		Winnipeg Jets	2-2-0	24-18-4	658.8
21	+8		New York Rangers	2-1-0	21-19-4	651.9
22	+3		San Jose Sharks	2-1-0	21-22-4	647.2
23	–		Montreal Canadiens	1-3-0	19-20-7	644.1
24	-5		Minnesota Wild	0-2-0	20-19-6	641.6
25	-4		Buffalo Sabres	1-2-0	20-19-7	639.4
26	+1		New Jersey Devils	2-1-1	17-21-7	631.5
27	-3		Chicago Blackhawks	1-2-0	20-20-6	623
28	-2		Los Angeles Kings	1-3-0	18-25-4	609.3
29	+1		Ottawa Senators	0-1-2	16-22-7	600
30	-2		Anaheim Ducks	0-3-0	17-23-5	585.2
31	–		Detroit Red Wings	2-1-0	12-31-3	523.2

Power Ranking Notables

Another week, another fascinating scene for the TWC Power Rankings. Before we get into the nitty gritty, it is worthwhile noting some of the feedback we have been receiving in regards to the model. One of the biggest things we found we were missing last season was a recency component to the model. As the weeks went on last season, we found that the rankings were more reflective of the standings rather than weekly performances. The addition of a recency component has made things much more interesting this year, resulting in far more changes week-to-week. We love that we are able to highlight different teams because of this change, but do acknowledge that nothing is perfect and we will continue to update this model in the off-season based on the feedback recieved!

With all that being said, we have a brand new number on team this week: the Pittsburgh Penguins. Safe to say that after Sidney Crosby went down with an injury, no one saw the Pens putting together quite a run like they have. Since losing Crosby, the Penguins have the most wins in the NHL. Evgeni Malkin is a huge reason behind this, as is Tristian Jarry, and the Penguins are hitting their stride just as their captain is about to make his return. Although injuries still pose a bit of an issue moving forward, we have seen them conquer it before. With their perfect 3-0-0 week, they take the number one position.

It was a successful week for all our top four teams, as they went a combined 12-0-0. The Boston Bruins, finishing second this week, used a 3-0-0 record to propel themselves to a tie for the NHL points lead. The same can be said for the St. Louis Blues, coming in third this week, as they also used the same record to catapult even further into the Western Conference lead and also tie the Bruins and Capitals for the best record in the NHL.

One of the more interesting results from last week was for the Washington Capitals and Tampa Bay Lightning. The Lightning fell three spots to the fifth position on our rankings, while the Capitals fell five to the number sixth spot. The top two teams from Week 14 had a tough outing, even though they went 4-3-0 combined. The main reason for their drop was simply that the other four teams had ridiculously successful weeks, simply leading to better overall TWCScores. The loss last night to the New Jersey Devils surely put a dent in the Lightning’s win streak, and caused a slight drop. The Capitals didn’t fair as well last week (1-2-0), resulting in their slide being a bit more noticeable. That being said, they are still easily two of the best teams in the league and will most likely be back on top soon.

Another notable team to highlight: the Calgary Flames. After taking the win in a passionate Battle of Alberta on Saturday, the Flames now find themselves tied for first place in the Pacific Division after rattling off five straight wins. Cam Talbot is finding his groove in the net, Johnny Gaudreau is slowly getting his scoring touch back, and Matthew Tkachuk is wreaking havoc as per usual. Of course, the Flames have been winning by slim margins in 2020, and have a slim lead in the division right now, which means that the margin for error is far greater than it appears. Will they continue to find themselves near the top moving forward? Only time will tell.

Other notes from Week 15: The Florida Panthers, Nashville Predators, and Philadelphia Flyers all shared some success last week, while the Colorado Avalanche, Toronto Maple Leafs, and Vancouver Canucks were unable to maintain their recent momentum.

Biggest Gainer & Loser

St. Louis Blues & Carolina Hurricanes (+9)

As mentioned before, the Blues and Hurricanes shared a ton of success last week. A perfect 3-0-0 record for both teams catapulted them up the standings nine spots each. The Blues have been absolutely dynamite for a while now. David Perron has been the real story in St. Louis though, earning an All-Star nod to boot last week. Currently 16th in league scoring with 20G and 26A, Perron has been shining brightest for the Blues and is well deserving of ASG honours. The Hurricanes, who continue to pace the majority of advanced stats categories, earned some solid goaltending from Petr Mrazek and James Reimer last week in back-to-back shutouts. They also got Justin Williams back from “retirement”, which only bolsters their current depth even more. Watch out for both teams moving forward.

Vegas Golden Knights (-12)

Not a good week in the desert for the Golden Knights. Three consecutive losses has them falling not only 12 spots in our rankings, but into a Wild-Card position in the Western Conference. Of course, they are still just one point out of the lead in the Pacific, but their play has been less than ideal as of late. 5-5-0 in their last ten games shows that the Knights need to get back to their old selves as soon as possible.

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What are your thoughts? Are you surprised where your team landed this week? Let us know at @wincolumnblog.

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All data courtesy of Natural Stat Trick.

TWC Power Rankings:

Week 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14