Welcome back to the TWC Power Rankings!
Here at TWC, we use a statistical model to effectively rank teams on a week to week basis. The model takes into effect winning percentages, CF%, SCF%, HDCF% as well as SV%. Each statistical category is weighed and scored differently, giving each team a unique TWC Score that determines their ranking after each week. The formula puts the highest emphasis on winning percentages over other statistics. All numbers are taken in all situations, to incorporate special teams into the fray.
We got some excellent feedback over the course of last season from our readers as to how we could improve this model moving forward. We have slightly altered the weightings of the statistical categories, bust also added a large recency component to make sure that each week the teams that are riding hot streaks are more appropriately demonstrated in the rankings.
Don’t like where your team is ranked? Unfortunately, they will have to turn it around on the ice, as we take zero personal opinions into effect.
Have any suggestions for the TWC Power Rankings for next season? Leave us a comment and let us know!
|Rank||Change||Team||Team Name||Last Week||Record||TWCScore|
|2||–||St Louis Blues||3-0-0||26-8-6||790.3|
|5||+11||Tampa Bay Lightning||3-0-0||20-13-4||752.3|
|7||-4||New York Islanders||1-2-0||24-10-3||739.4|
|10||-1||Toronto Maple Leafs||2-0-1||21-14-5||726.9|
|14||-6||Vegas Golden Knights||1-2-0||21-15-6||692.9|
|16||-2||Columbus Blue Jackets||1-0-2||17-14-8||687.3|
|20||+4||New York Rangers||2-1-0||19-15-4||663.3|
|27||+2||San Jose Sharks||1-0-1||17-20-3||635.4|
|28||+2||New Jersey Devils||2-0-1||13-19-6||630.1|
|29||-3||Los Angeles Kings||1-2-0||16-21-4||624.8|
|31||–||Detroit Red Wings||0-2-0||9-28-3||466.5|
Power Ranking Notables
Last edition of 2019, and the Boston Bruins are back on top. They rode a perfect 3-0-0 week to jump five spots in the rankings, and put up excellent advanced stats to even gain a seven point TWCScore edge on the second place team, the St. Louis Blues.
The Blues, continue to show the league that they are for real. There really is no Stanley Cup hangover for them as they just keep rolling despite missing their most prolific scorer in Vladimir Tarasenko. They’re a scary team.
Rounding out the top five are two usual suspects, the Pittsburgh Penguins and Washington Capitals. It’s incredible how the Penguins manage to find Vezina calibre goalies seemingly year after year. Tristan Jarry has been nothing short of stellar for them this season, and they’re riding his hot streak right up both the rankings and the standings. The Capitals had just one win last week, but maintained steady advanced stats and only fell three spots. The fifth place team is new: the Tampa Bay Lightning. It looks like the Lightning might be starting to figure it out. Not only are they starting to string together some wins, but they’re operating at above 52% in all advanced stats we include in our rankings. Most notably their expected goals percentage is at 52.4%, a strong indication that they will see sustained success.
Three teams have clustered together in the top 10: the Philadelphia Flyers, Colorado Avalanche, and Toronto Maple Leafs. These teams are separated by just 10 TWCScore points, and are neck and neck in the power rankings. With Carter Hart playing better of late, the Flyers are making up ground in the strong Metropolitan division; the Avalanche got Cale Makar back last week and a big surge up the rankings could be in store for them; and the Maple Leafs are flourishing under new head coach Sheldon Keefe, earning points in all three games last week and nine of their past 10 overall. They are absolutely on fire right now.
The Vancouver Canucks are another Canadian team on fire. They went 3-0-0 last week including a big win over the Calgary Flames on Sunday night and find themselves in 12th place in the power rankings and are sitting in second place in the Pacific with home ice if the playoffs started today. They seemed to fall off the past few weeks but are surging now, and making up ground fast in the West. The one red flag with the Canucks is their advanced stats. None of the ones we track in this model are above 50%, which could be an indication that the Canucks’ success is not sustainable in its current form.
Despite sitting in first place in the Pacific, the Vegas Golden Knights fell six spots to 14th in the rankings this past week. They won just one of their three games, and didn’t look particularly good in those losses. They’re still a great team and look like they just had a bad week, but they’ll need to rebound to maintain their spot in what’s turned into a very tight division race.
Towards the middle of the pack we see three teams that have all endured big ups and downs this season: the Nashville Predators, Montreal Canadiens, and the Flames. All three teams went 1-2-0 last week and all fell down the rankings. It’s been a tough season for all three with so much inconsistency. Their fate will be decided in the 2020 portion of the season, and for right now, having a winning record and being in the playoff mix is a great place to start. Of the three, the Predators have the best advanced stats and the Flames have the worst. The Flames will need to start playing more complete games and start driving play a lot better if they want to keep their spot in the Pacific playoff picture.
Towards the bottom of the rankings we see the same teams we’ve seen the whole year. The Ottawa Senators, Chicago Blackhawks, New Jersey Devils, Los Angeles Kings, and Detroit Red Wings. The Devils have looked surprisingly good since the Taylor Hall trade, and it’s possible they make a statement in 2020. They’re up two spots this week and could move up even more next week. They’re definitely a team to keep an eye on. The Edmonton Oilers have fallen out of favour with the rankings as well. Their advanced stats have plummeted and so has their winning percentage, prompting a seven spot drop to 26th this week.
A surprising addition to the bottom tier is a team that once occupied top spot in their division. The Buffalo Sabres have really fallen from grace. They’re down a whopping seven spots to 30th after a 0-3-0 week, and didn’t look good in their losses either. They’re still above .500, but is this turning into another lost season for the Sabres?
Tampa Bay Lightning & Dallas Stars (+11)
As we talked about earlier, the Lightning are surging. They’re up to fifth this week, and look like they could be mainstays in the top five from this point on. The Lightning are still a scary team and could be rounding into form; the rest of the league should take warning.
The Dallas Stars have been quietly finding themselves as well. They have a tremendous goaltending tandem in Ben Bishop and Anton Khudobin, Tyler Seguin and Alexander Radulov are starting to pile up the points, and the Stars as a team are finding ways to win games. They’re up to sixth place this week, and have some separation from the New York Islanders who are in seventh.
Arizona Coyotes (-11)
On first glance, it looks like the model is weighing recent winning percentage way too heavily, especially with the Arizona Coyotes. However, it’s much more than that. The Coyotes lost all three of their games last week and dropped 11 spots to 24th on the rankings. They still sit in third place in the Pacific Division, but those losses were important. The Coyotes’ advanced stats have taken a severe hit. Every single stat we track, CF%, SCF%, HDCF%, and xGF%, are all below 50% right now, which can indicate the Coyotes are not playing in a way that leads to sustained success. They might be on the cusp of falling, and they need a big turnaround if they want to keep pace with the other hot teams in the Pacific.
What are your thoughts? Are you surprised where your team landed this week? Let us know at @wincolumnblog.
All data courtesy of Natural Stat Trick.
TWC Power Rankings: