It’s time for the final playoff push. The 2024 NHL Trade Deadline has come and gone, and the battle is on. While deadline acquisitions haven’t had time to show their full potential yet, it’s not too soon to check in on which teams are on fire and which teams are struggling as we start the final stretch of the NHL season.
TWC Power Rankings explained
If you’re new to our power rankings, this is how it all works.
Here at TWC, we use a statistical model to effectively rank teams on a week-to-week basis. The model takes into effect winning percentages, CF%, SCF%, HDCF% as well as SV%. Each statistical category is weighed and scored differently, giving each team a unique TWC Score that determines their ranking after each week. The formula puts the highest emphasis on winning percentages over other statistics. All numbers are taken in all situations, to incorporate special teams into the fray.
We got some excellent feedback over the course of last season from our readers as to how we could improve this model moving forward. This year we have slightly altered the weightings of the statistical categories, but also re-worked the recency component to make sure that each week the teams that are riding hot streaks are more appropriately demonstrated in the rankings.
Don’t like where your team is ranked? Unfortunately, they will have to turn it around on the ice, as we take zero personal opinions into effect.
Have any suggestions for the TWC Power Rankings for next season? Leave us a comment and let us know. Without further ado, this week’s power rankings are below!
Week 21 NHL Power Rankings
| Rank | Change | Team | Team Name | Last Week | Record | TWCScore |
| 1 | – |
 |
Florida Panthers | 3-1-0 | 44-17-4 | 788.6 |
| 2 | +2 |
 |
Carolina Hurricanes | 3-0-0 | 39-19-6 | 769.2 |
| 3 | -1 |
 |
Edmonton Oilers | 2-1-1 | 39-21-3 | 757.3 |
| 4 | +3 |
 |
Dallas Stars | 3-0-0 | 40-17-9 | 750.3 |
| 5 | +3 |
 |
Colorado Avalanche | 3-0-0 | 40-20-5 | 742 |
| 6 | +3 |
 |
Vancouver Canucks | 3-0-0 | 42-17-7 | 739.2 |
| 7 | +3 |
 |
Boston Bruins | 3-0-1 | 38-13-15 | 736.4 |
| 8 | +3 |
 |
Nashville Predators | 2-0-2 | 37-25-4 | 734.2 |
| 9 | -4 |
 |
New York Rangers | 1-1-0 | 41-18-4 | 734 |
| 10 | -7 |
 |
Toronto Maple Leafs | 2-2-0 | 37-19-8 | 732.2 |
| 11 | -5 |
 |
Winnipeg Jets | 1-2-0 | 40-18-5 | 713.8 |
| 12 | – |
 |
Los Angeles Kings | 1-1-1 | 32-20-11 | 695.3 |
| 13 | +6 |
 |
New York Islanders | 2-0-0 | 28-20-14 | 688.1 |
| 14 | -1 |
 |
Tampa Bay Lightning | 1-1-0 | 34-25-6 | 674.5 |
| 15 | +6 |
 |
Washington Capitals | 2-0-0 | 30-23-9 | 672.7 |
| 16 | -2 |
 |
Philadelphia Flyers | 1-1-1 | 33-24-8 | 670.6 |
| 17 | -1 |
 |
Seattle Kraken | 2-1-0 | 28-24-11 | 670.2 |
| 18 | -3 |
 |
Calgary Flames | 1-3-0 | 31-28-5 | 661.1 |
| 19 | +3 |
 |
Minnesota Wild | 2-0-1 | 31-27-7 | 660.5 |
| 20 | +3 |
 |
Vegas Golden Knights | 1-2-0 | 34-23-7 | 654.3 |
| 21 | -3 |
 |
Pittsburgh Penguins | 1-3-0 | 28-27-8 | 651.4 |
| 22 | -5 |
 |
New Jersey Devils | 1-2-0 | 31-29-4 | 644.8 |
| 23 | +1 |
 |
Buffalo Sabres | 1-1-1 | 30-30-5 | 640.4 |
| 24 | -4 |
 |
Detroit Red Wings | 0-3-0 | 33-25-6 | 633.9 |
| 25 | +1 |
 |
Ottawa Senators | 0-2-1 | 25-33-4 | 606.1 |
| 26 | -1 |
 |
St Louis Blues | 1-3-0 | 32-29-3 | 603.9 |
| 27 | – |
 |
Columbus Blue Jackets | 2-2-0 | 22-32-10 | 588.3 |
| 28 | +1 |
 |
Arizona Coyotes | 1-3-0 | 26-34-5 | 583.6 |
| 29 | -1 |
 |
Montreal Canadiens | 1-2-0 | 24-30-10 | 574.8 |
| 30 | – |
 |
Anaheim Ducks | 1-1-0 | 23-37-3 | 549.1 |
| 31 | – |
 |
Chicago Blackhawks | 2-2-0 | 17-43-5 | 508.7 |
| 32 | – |
 |
San Jose Sharks | 1-1-1 | 16-40-7 | 486 |
Over the past week, the top two teams were the Washington Capitals and New York Islanders, jumping six positions. Both of these teams looked at times like they were long shots at best to make the playoffs this season. Now, the Isles are sitting in a wild card spot, and the Capitals aren’t far behind.
Interestingly, the two teams are neck and neck in the analytics considered by the power rankings model, and neither team is particularly strong in those categories. Despite their middling possession and scoring chance stats, they’re in the hunt, and picking up much-needed wins.
At the end of the day, wins trump all other stats, and they’re collecting them now that it matters most.
At the other end of the spectrum, the Maple Leafs posted the largest drop of the week. Their seven-place slide looks harsh considering their record relative to some of the teams that had worse records on the week, but they have considerably different underlying metrics than those other teams.
While the Winnipeg Jets and New Jersey Devils had worse win percentages on the week, they outperformed the Leafs under the hood, giving the model more faith they can turn their records around, meaning they drop fewer places for their poor record.
The Devils won fewer games than the Leafs but have considerably more impressive possession numbers, appearing to be held back almost entirely by goaltending. The Jets actually have worse advanced stats, but are propped up by their league-best goaltending.
Another noteworthy team this week is the Nashville Predators. The Preds have been white hot recently, with an 8–0–2 record in their last ten games. Despite expectations that they would be a seller before the trade deadline, the Preds are sitting comfortably in the first wild card playoff spot.
An underdog with low expectations, Andrew Brunette has his team in the top ten in scoring chances, high-danger chances, and possession. Combined with elite goaltending, the Preds may surprise the league when the playoffs come.
Check back weekly to see which teams maintain their trajectory, and which teams change course, for better or worse.
Past 2023–24 Power Rankings
Week 1 | Week 2 | Week 3 | Week 4 | Week 5 | Week 6 | Week 7 | Week 8 | Week 9 | Week 10 | Week 11 | Week 12 | Week 13 | Week 14 | Week 15 | Week 16 | Week 17 | Week 18 | Week 19 | Week 20
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