TWC NHL Power Rankings 2023–24: Week 1

The TWC NHL Power Rankings are officially back in action as the 2023–24 NHL season gets underway. After just a few games, the TWC model has a few teams in some interesting positions to start off the year. The next few weeks are going to be volatile, but we present to you the initial table setting.

TWC Power Rankings explained

If you’re new to our power rankings, this is how it all works.

Here at TWC, we use a statistical model to effectively rank teams on a week to week basis. The model takes into effect winning percentages, CF%, SCF%, HDCF% as well as SV%. Each statistical category is weighed and scored differently, giving each team a unique TWC Score that determines their ranking after each week. The formula puts the highest emphasis on winning percentages over other statistics. All numbers are taken in all situations, to incorporate special teams into the fray.

We got some excellent feedback over the course of last season from our readers as to how we could improve this model moving forward. This year we have slightly altered the weightings of the statistical categories, but also re-worked the recency component to make sure that each week the teams that are riding hot streaks are more appropriately demonstrated in the rankings.

Don’t like where your team is ranked? Unfortunately, they will have to turn it around on the ice, as we take zero personal opinions into effect.

Have any suggestions for the TWC Power Rankings for next season? Leave us a comment and let us know. Without further ado, this week’s power rankings are below!

Week 1 NHL Power Rankings

Rank	Change	Team	Team Name	Last Week	Record	TWCScore
1	–		Dallas Stars	0-0-0	1-0-0	937
2	–		New York Islanders	0-0-0	1-0-0	934.9
3	–		Toronto Maple Leafs	0-0-0	2-0-0	918.6
4	–		Boston Bruins	0-0-0	2-0-0	918.2
5	–		Colorado Avalanche	0-0-0	2-0-0	917.1
6	–		Vegas Golden Knights	0-0-0	3-0-0	909.8
7	–		Arizona Coyotes	0-0-0	1-0-0	896.5
8	–		Vancouver Canucks	0-0-0	2-0-0	823.3
9	–		New Jersey Devils	0-0-0	1-0-1	779
10	–		Montreal Canadiens	0-0-0	1-0-1	726
11	–		St Louis Blues	0-0-0	1-0-1	722.4
12	–		Pittsburgh Penguins	0-0-0	2-1-0	719.5
13	–		Ottawa Senators	0-0-0	2-1-0	713.5
14	–		Carolina Hurricanes	0-0-0	2-1-0	712.6
15	–		New York Rangers	0-0-0	1-1-0	703.7
16	–		Winnipeg Jets	0-0-0	1-1-0	692.7
17	–		Philadelphia Flyers	0-0-0	1-1-0	674.3
18	–		Detroit Red Wings	0-0-0	1-1-0	640.4
19	–		Calgary Flames	0-0-0	1-1-0	605.9
20	–		Anaheim Ducks	0-0-0	1-1-0	601.7
21	–		Columbus Blue Jackets	0-0-0	1-1-0	581.4
22	–		Los Angeles Kings	0-0-0	0-1-1	577.3
23	–		Nashville Predators	0-0-0	1-2-0	576.3
24	–		Minnesota Wild	0-0-0	1-1-0	571.1
25	–		Chicago Blackhawks	0-0-0	1-2-0	553.5
26	–		Tampa Bay Lightning	0-0-0	1-2-0	521.4
27	–		Seattle Kraken	0-0-0	0-2-1	491.8
28	–		San Jose Sharks	0-0-0	0-1-1	462.8
29	–		Edmonton Oilers	0-0-0	0-2-0	445.8
30	–		Florida Panthers	0-0-0	0-2-0	444
31	–		Buffalo Sabres	0-0-0	0-2-0	330.1
32	–		Washington Capitals	0-0-0	0-1-0	317.2

With just a few games under some team’s belts, it’s very hard to take a lot of stock in initial positioning. Take for example the Dallas Stars, they are the number one ranked team this week, and will undoubtedly be there again this season, but their 1-0-0 record skews the rankings slightly.

The same can be said for the other eight undefeated teams, who fill out most of the rest of the top ten this week. Some will undoubtedly stay, while others will most likely fall further. Of those undefeated teams that have played more than one game, the model favours the Toronto Maple Leafs and Boston Bruins compared to the Vancouver Canucks by a decent margin.

Additionally, even with their one loss in extra time, the model also has ranked the New Jersey Devils high based on their underlying numbers. Expect their stock to grow over the next few weeks. 

Speaking of which, the Canucks two-game home-and-home with the Edmonton Oilers may have resulted in one of the weirdest rankings we have seen out of our model over the last few seasons. The Canucks currently are ranked 31st in CF% & SCF%, while also sitting 29th in HDCF%, but their 2–0–0 record catapulted them up our model. The Oilers meanwhile sit first in CF%, fourth in xGF%, and third in SCF% and HDCF%, which should have them much higher on our model. But with no wins, and a 32nd ranked SV% have them sitting at 29th. Strong odds are that these two teams will completely flip the script once the records start to equal out.

In terms of teams that the model so far has not enjoyed as much, the Seattle Kraken, Florida Panthers, San Jose Sharks and Buffalo Sabres all are feeling the opening week blues. With no wins through their first few games, combined with poor underlying numbers, it’s not the ideal start but it’s still too early to tell.

Finally, the Washington Capitals may be last on our list but with only one game and no goals scored this season, not much else you can do. 

Tune in to future weeks to see where your favourite team ranks!