Three weeks into the season, the TWC NHL Power Rankings are full of excitement. Top teams are beginning to separate themselves from the pack, and there are some big risers and fallers across the league as a result.
TWC Power Rankings explained
If you’re new to our power rankings, this is how it all works.
Here at TWC, we use a statistical model to effectively rank teams on a week to week basis. The model takes into effect winning percentages, CF%, SCF%, HDCF% as well as SV%. Each statistical category is weighed and scored differently, giving each team a unique TWC Score that determines their ranking after each week. The formula puts the highest emphasis on winning percentages over other statistics. All numbers are taken in all situations, to incorporate special teams into the fray.
We got some excellent feedback over the course of last season from our readers as to how we could improve this model moving forward. This year we have slightly altered the weightings of the statistical categories, but also re-worked the recency component to make sure that each week the teams that are riding hot streaks are more appropriately demonstrated in the rankings.
Don’t like where your team is ranked? Unfortunately, they will have to turn it around on the ice, as we take zero personal opinions into effect.
Have any suggestions for the TWC Power Rankings for next season? Leave us a comment and let us know. Without further ado, this week’s power rankings are below!
Week 3 NHL Power Rankings
|Rank||Change||Team||Team Name||Last Week||Record||TWCScore|
|2||+1||Vegas Golden Knights||2-0-1||8-0-1||691.8|
|5||+4||New York Rangers||3-0-0||6-2-0||613.7|
|6||+2||New Jersey Devils||3-1-0||5-2-1||610.5|
|7||+3||Los Angeles Kings||2-0-1||4-2-2||602.8|
|8||-1||Toronto Maple Leafs||2-0-1||5-2-1||600.4|
|10||+10||Tampa Bay Lightning||2-0-0||4-2-2||567.6|
|13||-1||New York Islanders||2-1-0||4-2-1||560.9|
|17||-12||Detroit Red Wings||0-2-1||5-3-1||538.2|
|21||-6||Columbus Blue Jackets||0-1-2||3-3-2||509.9|
|24||-10||St Louis Blues||1-2-0||3-3-1||484.3|
|32||–||San Jose Sharks||0-4-0||0-8-1||269.2|
It took three weeks, but finally, there aren’t any undefeated teams remaining. Both the Boston Bruins and Vegas Golden Knights suffered losses in extra time this week, taking away their perfect records. Still, their dominant records put them comfortably in the top two positions.
One new team has worked its way into the top five, too. The New York Rangers had a perfect week with three wins and no losses. Combined with their fifth-best team save percentage and generally strong possession and scoring chance numbers, the Rangers are a team that should make a number of appearances near the top of these rankings this year.
Even after jumping five spots, the Rangers are far from the week’s biggest climbers. The Florida Panthers jumped eleven places to rise to 14th in the league, with two wins and no losses on the week. Despite playing just two games, the Panthers have very strong underlying numbers. If they can keep this up until some of their key players return from injury, they could be a real threat come playoffs.
The Vancouver Canucks, Washington Capitals, and Tampa Bay Lightning also made big gains this week, with each team gaining ten places. This early in the season, the model outputs big week-to-week swings like this. The interesting thing will be to watch which of these teams can maintain their newly attained heights.
Of those three, the Canucks and Lightning have the better underlying metrics, but both have been carried by goaltending to an extent. In particular, the Canucks have underwhelming possession numbers, but the league’s third-best save percentage, an important factor in the model.
With such big jumps in the standings, there inevitably must be teams suffering, too. This week, the Arizona Coyotes felt the most pain. They dropped 13 positions after losing both their games. On top of the losing record, they’re in the bottom third of the league in Corsi, high-danger Corsi, and scoring chances.
The Calgary Flames also struggled mightily, dropping ten places to 30th overall. In what was supposed to be a bounce-back season, the Flames are limping out of the gates to start the year. Despite decent possession metrics, they haven’t managed to turn their possession into scoring chances, let alone goals. It’s beginning to look like a very long year ahead in Calgary.
Despite the Flames’ struggles, they are miles clear of last place in the eyes of the model. The San Jose Sharks put together another winless week, and it looks like there could be more ahead. The tank is in full swing in San Jose, so it may well be for the best, but for now, they have one of the worst TWCScores ever seen.
Check back in next week to see where your team lands after week four!