Welcome back to the new and improved 2021 TWC Power Rankings!
Here at TWC, we use a statistical model to effectively rank teams on a week to week basis. The model takes into effect winning percentages, CF%, SCF%, HDCF% as well as SV%. Each statistical category is weighed and scored differently, giving each team a unique TWC Score that determines their ranking after each week. The formula puts the highest emphasis on winning percentages over other statistics. All numbers are taken in all situations, to incorporate special teams into the fray.
We got some excellent feedback over the course of last season from our readers as to how we could improve this model moving forward. We have slightly altered the weightings of the statistical categories, but also added a large recency component to make sure that each week the teams that are riding hot streaks are more appropriately demonstrated in the rankings.
Additionally, due to the 2021 NHL Season realignment, we have broken down teams into their respective divisions while also maintaining their league ranking.
Don’t like where your team is ranked? Unfortunately, they will have to turn it around on the ice, as we take zero personal opinions into effect.
Central Division
| Rank | Change | Team | Team Name | Last Week | Record | TWCScore |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | +6 |  | Florida Panthers | 4-0-0 | 26-9-4 | 820.6 |
| 4 | -3 |  | Carolina Hurricanes | 2-2-0 | 25-9-3 | 792.6 |
| 6 | +3 |  | Tampa Bay Lightning | 2-2-0 | 26-10-2 | 768 |
| 17 | +1 |  | Dallas Stars | 2-1-1 | 13-13-10 | 676 |
| 18 | -4 |  | Nashville Predators | 2-1-0 | 20-18-1 | 675.5 |
| 21 | -1 |  | Chicago Blackhawks | 1-2-0 | 17-17-5 | 622.4 |
| 28 | – |  | Columbus Blue Jackets | 1-3-0 | 14-18-8 | 584.2 |
| 29 | – |  | Detroit Red Wings | 1-2-1 | 13-22-5 | 564.2 |
The Florida Panthers surged this week going 4-0-0, and extending their win streak to six games, all while taking over the top spot in the Central Division away from the Carolina Hurricanes. They just missed out on taking the number one ranking overall, but even without that, it can’t be ignored how strong of a team the Panthers are at the moment. Consistency has been key frankly all season, as right now they sit 6th in CF%, 3rd in xGF%, 7th in SCF%, 4th in HDCF%, and 3rd in SV%. They are incredibly well balanced and are pushing for the number one seed in the division to avoid the dreaded 2/3 matchup that is coming between a combination of the Panthers, Hurricanes, and Tampa Bay Lightning.
The Dallas Stars, Chicago Blackhawks, and Nashville Predators continue to jockey for the final playoff spot, as there is no real separation among the teams at this point in time. The Stars have three games in hand and just three points to make up, which would give them the “edge” so to speak. The team is 8th in CF%, 4th in SCF%, and 9th in HDCF%, while also having some above average ranks in xGF% and SV%. This is all being done without their number one goaltender and number one center the entire season. If they can hang on for a few more weeks then you’ve almost got to give them the edge here.
East Division
| Rank | Change | Team | Team Name | Last Week | Record | TWCScore |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | +2 |  | New York Islanders | 2-1-0 | 24-10-4 | 788.1 |
| 9 | -4 |  | Washington Capitals | 2-2-0 | 25-9-4 | 752 |
| 10 | – |  | Pittsburgh Penguins | 2-1-0 | 24-12-2 | 748.3 |
| 12 | -1 |  | Boston Bruins | 2-1-0 | 19-10-5 | 733 |
| 14 | +5 |  | New York Rangers | 2-0-1 | 17-15-5 | 696.6 |
| 19 | -2 |  | Philadelphia Flyers | 1-1-1 | 17-14-5 | 666.9 |
| 24 | – |  | New Jersey Devils | 0-1-2 | 13-17-6 | 600.9 |
| 30 | +1 |  | Buffalo Sabres | 2-0-2 | 8-23-6 | 542.9 |
No real separation occurred in the East Division last week, with a 2-0-1 record being the best on paper. In terms of how the division lays out, we have looked at the New York Islanders strong underlying numbers and the Washington Capitals less than flashy ones, but this week is a perfect example of just how much they come into play in terms of ranking. The Capitals hold the better winning percentage at .711% and went 2-2-0, which shouldn’t be a cause for concern. The Islanders had the better winning percentage last week going 2-1-0 and have better league wide stats when ranked against the Capitals. The end result had the Islanders moving up two spots, while the Capitals moved down four.
In other news, the Buffalo Sabres won two games last week after bringing their long losing streak to an end. Although it came in the same week as being mathematically eliminated from playoff contention, it’s the small victories.
North Division
| Rank | Change | Team | Team Name | Last Week | Record | TWCScore |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | – |  | Toronto Maple Leafs | 3-0-1 | 25-10-3 | 810.9 |
| 11 | +4 |  | Montreal Canadiens | 2-1-0 | 16-9-9 | 736.6 |
| 13 | -1 |  | Edmonton Oilers | 2-1-0 | 23-14-1 | 727.9 |
| 15 | -2 |  | Winnipeg Jets | 1-1-1 | 22-13-3 | 691.8 |
| 25 | -3 |  | Calgary Flames | 0-3-0 | 16-20-3 | 594.5 |
| 26 | +1 |  | Vancouver Canucks | 0-0-0 | 16-18-3 | 587.4 |
| 27 | -1 |  | Ottawa Senators | 1-1-0 | 13-21-4 | 585.9 |
Things are a little bit different in the North Division this week, and not for a good reason. We will highlight that the Maple Leafs extended their lead at the top and the Flames extended their winless streak, but the real attention goes to the Vancouver Canucks.
With the most recent COVID-19 outbreak, the schedule and results pales in comparison when news broke this week of just how far the impact stretches in the organization. It’s going to be a long time before we see them back on the ice and frankly we are just hoping that it is later rather than sooner.
Combined with the Montreal shutdown, you start to wonder what happens moving forward in the Canadian division. Although the schedule is far down the list of priorities, the every team is going to be impacted by this and with only a few weeks left, the outlook starts to get seriously cloudy.
West Division
| Rank | Change | Team | Team Name | Last Week | Record | TWCScore |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | +1 |  | Colorado Avalanche | 4-0-0 | 25-8-4 | 853.4 |
| 7 | -3 |  | Vegas Golden Knights | 1-2-1 | 24-10-2 | 766.7 |
| 8 | -2 |  | Minnesota Wild | 2-1-1 | 23-11-2 | 760.6 |
| 16 | +7 |  | San Jose Sharks | 4-0-0 | 17-16-4 | 688.1 |
| 20 | -4 |  | Arizona Coyotes | 2-1-0 | 18-15-5 | 666.7 |
| 22 | -1 |  | St Louis Blues | 0-2-0 | 16-15-6 | 609.5 |
| 23 | +2 |  | Los Angeles Kings | 1-3-0 | 14-16-6 | 606.4 |
| 31 | -1 |  | Anaheim Ducks | 0-2-1 | 11-21-7 | 538.6 |
The Colorado Avalanche moved back into the number one overall ranking after a 4-0-0 week. We spoke at length last week about just how dominant the Avalanche have been this season, and it’s absolutely no shock that they take the top spot this week.
The more interesting news once again comes between the teams fighting for the fourth spot in the division. The San Jose Sharks, Arizona Coyotes, and St. Louis Blues all look to be in a dog fight for the position. Our model gives the Sharks the advantage this week, thanks in large part to a 4-0-0 week, but they also hold the edge statistically as well. They hold the edge over the Coyotes and Blues in xGF%, SCF%, and HDCF%. In terms of CF% and SV%, where the Blues and Coyotes hold the advantage respectively, the Sharks remain close behind.
The Blues held the advantage in this spot for the first half of the season, but the margin has disappeared as time has gone on. The Los Angeles Kings even are as stone’s throw away when taking into account games in hand. The Wild West has only just started.
Have any suggestions for the TWC Power Rankings for next season? Leave us a comment and let us know!
Are you surprised where your team landed this week? Let us know at @wincolumnblog.
All data courtesy of Natural Stat Trick.
Previous Weeks: Week 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11
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