Welcome back to the new and improved 2021 TWC Power Rankings!
Here at TWC, we use a statistical model to effectively rank teams on a week to week basis. The model takes into effect winning percentages, CF%, SCF%, HDCF% as well as SV%. Each statistical category is weighed and scored differently, giving each team a unique TWC Score that determines their ranking after each week. The formula puts the highest emphasis on winning percentages over other statistics. All numbers are taken in all situations, to incorporate special teams into the fray.
We got some excellent feedback over the course of last season from our readers as to how we could improve this model moving forward. We have slightly altered the weightings of the statistical categories, but also added a large recency component to make sure that each week the teams that are riding hot streaks are more appropriately demonstrated in the rankings.
Additionally, due to the 2021 NHL Season realignment, we have broken down teams into their respective divisions while also maintaining their league ranking.
Don’t like where your team is ranked? Unfortunately, they will have to turn it around on the ice, as we take zero personal opinions into effect.
Central Division
| Rank | Change | Team | Team Name | Last Week | Record | TWCScore |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | +1 |  | Tampa Bay Lightning | 3-0-1 | 17-4-2 | 831.1 |
| 3 | +4 |  | Carolina Hurricanes | 4-0-0 | 17-6-1 | 826.8 |
| 6 | -1 |  | Florida Panthers | 2-1-1 | 15-5-4 | 790.1 |
| 16 | -2 |  | Chicago Blackhawks | 1-1-1 | 13-8-5 | 688.2 |
| 21 | – |  | Dallas Stars | 1-2-1 | 7-8-5 | 643.2 |
| 23 | +5 |  | Columbus Blue Jackets | 2-1-0 | 10-11-5 | 622.8 |
| 25 | -7 |  | Nashville Predators | 1-3-0 | 11-14-0 | 610 |
| 31 | -2 |  | Detroit Red Wings | 0-2-0 | 7-16-3 | 510 |
Just a minor change at the top in the Central Division, with the Carolina Hurricanes and Florida Panthers swapping the second and third positions. The Tampa Bay Lightning still reign supreme for the time being, but when looking at TWCScore, it’s by an extremely slim margin. The Hurricanes hold the advantage in CF%, SCF%, and HDCF%, but the Lightning are higher in xGF% and are the top ranked team in SV% helping them get a slight edge this week.
While the Chicago Blackhawks continue to make their case for that fourth spot, it’s been fascinating to see the Dallas Stars, Columbus Blue Jackets, and Nashville Predators continue to struggle to make up ground. All three are around the same level in terms of the point percentage and advanced stats, with the Stars holding a slight edge. Can any of these three make a run and steal the fourth spot?
East Division
| Rank | Change | Team | Team Name | Last Week | Record | TWCScore |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | +6 |  | New York Islanders | 4-0-0 | 15-6-4 | 801.7 |
| 8 | +1 |  | Boston Bruins | 1-1-1 | 13-6-3 | 747.3 |
| 9 | +3 |  | Washington Capitals | 2-1-0 | 14-6-4 | 742.2 |
| 13 | +2 |  | Pittsburgh Penguins | 3-1-0 | 14-9-1 | 718.7 |
| 15 | -9 |  | Philadelphia Flyers | 1-3-0 | 12-7-3 | 689.1 |
| 19 | +4 |  | New York Rangers | 3-1-0 | 10-10-3 | 663.7 |
| 27 | -3 |  | New Jersey Devils | 1-3-0 | 8-11-2 | 590 |
| 30 | -5 |  | Buffalo Sabres | 0-4-0 | 6-14-3 | 523.6 |
A new looking number one team in the East Division: the New York Islanders. Currently on a five game winning streak, the Islanders plucky defensive game has been working wonders against all of their opponents. Combine that with their offence heating up, and the Islanders are making a serious case to be this division’s number one team.
The Boston Bruins, Washington Capitals, Pittsburgh Penguins, and Philadelphia Flyers continue to jostle for positioning. The Flyers had the worst week of all, dropping nine spots overall after going 1-3-0. They currently sit in fifth place in the division, two points behind Pittsburgh with two games in hand. This race will come down to the wire.
Finally, poor Buffalo. Things have gone from bad to worse. The team has lost six games in a row, and now reportedly are looking to sell off assets again. This team just can’t figure it out.
North Division
| Rank | Change | Team | Team Name | Last Week | Record | TWCScore |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | -4 |  | Toronto Maple Leafs | 2-2-0 | 18-6-2 | 791.9 |
| 10 | +6 |  | Montreal Canadiens | 2-0-2 | 11-6-6 | 737.9 |
| 14 | -3 |  | Winnipeg Jets | 2-2-0 | 15-8-1 | 712.6 |
| 17 | -4 |  | Edmonton Oilers | 1-2-0 | 15-11-0 | 686.5 |
| 22 | -2 |  | Calgary Flames | 1-2-1 | 11-12-3 | 634.5 |
| 24 | +6 |  | Vancouver Canucks | 3-1-0 | 11-15-2 | 614.2 |
| 28 | +3 |  | Ottawa Senators | 3-2-0 | 9-17-1 | 576 |
Going 2-2-0, lost the Toronto Maple Leafs the number one overall ranking, but they retained their spot atop the North Division. Interestingly enough, the Montreal Canadiens, who went 2-0-2 last week, jumped up six spots into second place in the division. They are ranked third in CF%, and top ten in SCF% and HDCF%, which is pushing them up in the model, but they only sit fourth in the division in points. They have some games in hand, but will be a team to watch in the future.
The Calgary Flames were the second Canadian team to fire their head coach this season as they replaced Geoff Ward with Darryl Sutter. The team doesn’t have him at the helm yet, but after a 1-2-1 week they need his help sooner rather than later. Who knows if Sutter can even right the ship at this point in the season, but it’s worth a shot.
West Division
| Rank | Change | Team | Team Name | Last Week | Record | TWCScore |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | +1 |  | Vegas Golden Knights | 4-0-0 | 16-4-1 | 855.3 |
| 7 | +1 |  | Colorado Avalanche | 2-1-1 | 13-7-2 | 759 |
| 11 | -7 |  | Minnesota Wild | 1-2-1 | 13-8-1 | 731.6 |
| 12 | +5 |  | St Louis Blues | 3-0-1 | 14-8-3 | 724.1 |
| 18 | +4 |  | Arizona Coyotes | 2-1-0 | 11-10-3 | 665.9 |
| 20 | -1 |  | Los Angeles Kings | 1-1-1 | 10-8-5 | 658.2 |
| 26 | – |  | San Jose Sharks | 1-2-1 | 8-11-3 | 597.6 |
| 29 | -2 |  | Anaheim Ducks | 1-2-1 | 7-12-6 | 570.1 |
The number one overall position returns to the West Division as the Vegas Golden Knights stole the crown from the Toronto Maple Leafs this week. Currently on a six game winning streak, the Knights have established themselves as the team to beat. Although only two points up on the St. Louis Blues, they hold four games in hand and there is no doubt that lead will extend.
As we mentioned last week, the St. Louis Blues are getting bogged down by low advanced stats. Although they went 3-0-1 and hold a better record than the Colorado Avalanche and Minnesota Wild, they still sit behind them in our rankings. The TWCScore isn’t that much of a difference, but the team is simply getting hurt by stats ranked in the 20th among the league.
Have any suggestions for the TWC Power Rankings for next season? Leave us a comment and let us know!
Are you surprised where your team landed this week? Let us know at @wincolumnblog.
All data courtesy of Natural Stat Trick.
You must be logged in to post a comment.