Power Rankings

TWC Power Rankings 2021: Week 6

Welcome back to the new and improved 2021 TWC Power Rankings!

Here at TWC, we use a statistical model to effectively rank teams on a week to week basis. The model takes into effect winning percentages, CF%, SCF%, HDCF% as well as SV%. Each statistical category is weighed and scored differently, giving each team a unique TWC Score that determines their ranking after each week. The formula puts the highest emphasis on winning percentages over other statistics. All numbers are taken in all situations, to incorporate special teams into the fray.

We got some excellent feedback over the course of last season from our readers as to how we could improve this model moving forward. We have slightly altered the weightings of the statistical categories, but also added a large recency component to make sure that each week the teams that are riding hot streaks are more appropriately demonstrated in the rankings. 

Additionally, due to the 2021 NHL Season realignment, we have broken down teams into their respective divisions while also maintaining their league ranking.

Don’t like where your team is ranked? Unfortunately, they will have to turn it around on the ice, as we take zero personal opinions into effect.

Central Division

RankChangeTeamTeam NameLast WeekRecordTWCScore
Florida Panthers4-1-012-3-2832.7
Carolina Hurricanes3-1-112-4-1817
Tampa Bay Lightning1-2-011-4-1768.1
Chicago Blackhawks2-1-09-6-4686.2
Dallas Stars0-1-05-4-4646.7
Columbus Blue Jackets1-2-08-7-4617.3
Nashville Predators1-1-07-10-0614.3
Detroit Red Wings1-2-15-12-3537.5

The Florida Panthers are the new number one team in the NHL. A 12-3-3 record, combined with some high ranking advanced stats in the categories measures, lead this team to be the current class of the NHL. Although they are ranked high, they are still being chased by the Carolina Hurricanes and Tampa Bay Lightning. The former had a strong 3-1-1 week, while the latter struggled with a 1-2-0 record. All three teams are in the top six of our rankings and look to be setting up a tough playoff battle in the near future.

The battle for fourth continues between the Chicago Blackhawks, Dallas Stars, and Columbus Blue Jackets. The Stars only played once in the last week, and were heavily outmatched by the Florida Panthers. Of course, since the model still ranks across the league, other teams around them simply had better weeks which pushed them down a bit.

East Division

RankChangeTeamTeam NameLast WeekRecordTWCScore
Boston Bruins1-1-011-3-2805.3
New York Islanders3-2-09-6-3716.6
Washington Capitals3-1-09-5-3714.6
Pittsburgh Penguins2-1-09-6-1706.5
Philadelphia Flyers0-1-18-4-3685.5
New York Rangers2-1-06-7-3655.6
New Jersey Devils2-2-06-5-2651.7
Buffalo Sabres1-4-05-8-2595.2

After only playing two games, one of which was on Lake Tahoe, the Boston Bruins dropped a spot in the league but maintained their wide margin in their division. The Bruins by no means had a bad week, the Hurricanes and Panthers simply had better ones.

The Washington Capitals had themselves a strong 3-1-0 week pushing them up into 13th overall and third in the division. After battling COVID early in the season, the Capitals appear to have finally found their groove in a clustered East Division.

A team headed in the opposite direction is the Buffalo Sabres. It’s tough to understand just what exactly is going on in Buffalo at the moment. Jeff Skinner was scratched, Jake McCabe is out long term with a severe leg injury, and the top stars just aren’t getting on the score sheet. A 1-4-0 week pushed them down six spots in the division and currently leaving them with a lot of ground to make up.

North Division

RankChangeTeamTeam NameLast WeekRecordTWCScore
Toronto Maple Leafs3-1-114-4-2809.4
Edmonton Oilers3-1-012-8-0724.8
Montreal Canadiens0-1-19-5-3718.2
Winnipeg Jets3-1-011-6-1715.4
Calgary Flames2-3-09-9-1652.0
Vancouver Canucks1-1-28-12-2590.2
Ottawa Senators2-2-05-14-1528.1

Auston Matthews and Connor McDavid have willed their teams to the top two spots in the North Division after both stars amassed an insane amount of points over the past week and were the awarded first and second star honours. The Toronto Maple Leafs aren’t getting caught quite yet, although the injuries are starting to pile up, while the Oilers used a a 3-1-0 week to jump into the second spot. Tough to nail down who the top team in this division is, as when the top team’s stars are playing well, they all look unstoppable.

Pierre-Luc Dubois finally broke out in Winnipeg against the Vancouver Canucks, leading to a 3-1-0 record for the Jets. After some time, they look to be finding the right groove and have really pushed up the standings.

Finally, the Calgary Flames are in a funk. If it wasn’t for their 3-0 shutout over the Maple Leafs last night, their ranking would be far worse. Was last night just one good game, or is the team about to make the turn? Time is running out if they want to make a push for a playoff spot.

West Division

RankChangeTeamTeam NameLast WeekRecordTWCScore
Vegas Golden Knights1-2-011-4-1788.9
Colorado Avalanche2-1-09-5-1751.5
Minnesota Wild3-1-09-6-0749.2
Los Angeles Kings4-0-08-6-3695.7
Arizona Coyotes2-1-18-7-3676.2
St Louis Blues1-3-010-7-2669.7
San Jose Sharks2-1-17-8-2631.1
Anaheim Ducks0-4-06-10-3538.5

Finally the West Division was in full throttle action after many weeks of inactivity. The Vegas Golden Knights, to no one’s surprise, are still ranked first even after a 1-2-0 week. The Colorado Avalanche and Minnesota Wild are hot on their heels, but Vegas still reigns supreme.

The surprise of the week was the Los Angeles Kings who went 4-0-0 which included two shutout victories against the Wild and Blues, and two wins against the Arizona Coyotes. Although they still have a bit of a hill to climb, last week was a step in the right direction.

Finally, the St. Louis Blues dropped significantly with a 1-3-0 week. Their record is still great in comparison to the rest of the division, as they currently sit in second place, but below average advanced statistics are bogging them down. Combine that with a weaker week, and it’s no surprise to see them fall a bit, but don’t be surprised to see them jump right back if they can string together a few victories.

Have any suggestions for the TWC Power Rankings for next season? Leave us a comment and let us know!

What are your thoughts? Are you surprised where your team landed this week? Let us know at @wincolumnblog.

All data courtesy of Natural Stat Trick.

Previous Weeks: Week 1| 2 | 3

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