Calgary Flames

TWC Power Rankings 2021: Week 4

Welcome back to the new and improved 2021 TWC Power Rankings!

Here at TWC, we use a statistical model to effectively rank teams on a week to week basis. The model takes into effect winning percentages, CF%, SCF%, HDCF% as well as SV%. Each statistical category is weighed and scored differently, giving each team a unique TWC Score that determines their ranking after each week. The formula puts the highest emphasis on winning percentages over other statistics. All numbers are taken in all situations, to incorporate special teams into the fray.

We got some excellent feedback over the course of last season from our readers as to how we could improve this model moving forward. We have slightly altered the weightings of the statistical categories, but also added a large recency component to make sure that each week the teams that are riding hot streaks are more appropriately demonstrated in the rankings. 

Additionally, due to the 2021 NHL Season realignment, we have broken down teams into their respective divisions while also maintaining their league ranking.

Don’t like where your team is ranked? Unfortunately, they will have to turn it around on the ice, as we take zero personal opinions into effect.

Have any suggestions for the TWC Power Rankings for next season? Leave us a comment and let us know!

Central Division

RankChangeTeamTeam NameLast WeekRecordTWCScore
Tampa Bay Lightning3-0-07-1-1888.7
Carolina Hurricanes2-1-07-2-0836.5
Florida Panthers1-1-16-1-2826.5
Dallas Stars1-1-15-2-2749.1
Chicago Blackhawks2-0-15-4-4677.9
Nashville Predators1-2-05-6-0621.1
Columbus Blue Jackets1-2-05-5-3603.2
Detroit Red Wings1-2-03-8-2519.9

The Tampa Bay Lightning return to the top spot in the Central Division, just missing out on the number one overall spot in the NHL. There is no doubt that we expected to see the defending champs back, but their underlying numbers are simply pushing their TWCScore even higher. Ranked in the top ten across every statistical category aside from SCF%, the Lightning are once again putting the NHL on watch.

The Florida Panthers took a bit of drop this week after going 1-1-1, but after a small sample size start and a solid win streak, it’s not that big of a surprise. That being said, they are still ranked in the upper half of the league in stats measures, including 4th in HDCF. Wouldn’t be surprising to see them remain in the upper half of the division moving forward.

The Chicago Blackhawks got a bit of a boost after going 2-0-1. After starting off struggling, the team has rebounded well and have benefited off a muddled middle of the pack. The Nashville Predators and Columbus Blue Jackets both went 1-2-0 this week, assisting in Chicago’s rise.

East Division

RankChangeTeamTeam NameLast WeekRecordTWCScore
Boston Bruins3-0-08-1-2877.4
Philadelphia Flyers1-1-18-3-2735.4
New York Rangers2-0-04-4-2698.3
New York Islanders1-0-04-4-2686.3
Washington Capitals0-3-06-3-3659.4
Buffalo Sabres0-0-04-4-2642.8
New Jersey Devils0-0-04-3-2632.6
Pittsburgh Penguins0-2-05-5-1626.5

The Boston Bruins retake the number one spot in the East Division after a strong 3-0-0 week against the Philadelphia Flyers and Washington Capitals. They rank top ten across all categories, aside from SV%, and are being fueled by a number one rank in xGF%. The Bruins took a number of hits to their roster this offseason, but appear to be the same old Bruins.

The New York Rangers and New York Islanders both moved up significantly this past week, going a combined 3-0-0. Both teams took steps in the right direction after struggling off the start, but their moves are more due to other factors. The Buffalo Sabres and New Jersey Devils didn’t hit the ice due to COVID delay, and the Washington Capitals and Pittsburgh Penguins going a combined 0-5-0.

The East Division is in an interesting spot with no team really being a bottom feeder as of yet. The COVID shutdown for Buffalo and New Jersey will be fascinating to watch as both teams were building on momentum at the time of the stoppage.

North Division

RankChangeTeamTeam NameLast WeekRecordTWCScore
Toronto Maple Leafs2-0-09-2-1852.7
Montreal Canadiens3-1-08-2-2828.2
Winnipeg Jets2-0-17-3-1752.8
Calgary Flames2-2-05-5-1658.3
Edmonton Oilers1-1-06-7-0641.4
Vancouver Canucks0-4-06-9-0536.3
Ottawa Senators1-2-02-9-1474.2

The North Division continues to entertain this season for a number of reasons. The Toronto Maple Leafs and Montreal Canadiens reign supreme atop the division, with the Winnipeg Jets quickly gaining behind them.

The Jets are one of the more interesting teams to watch this season. They will finally get Pierre-Luc Dubois in their lineup this week, but even without him, and Patrik Laine, they have been strong. Their top six remains one of the most deadly in the NHL, and it’s about to get even scarier. Watch out Canada!

The most talked about team over the past week was easily the Vancouver Canucks. They got a huge boost last week, primarily after dominating the Ottawa Senators, but did things ever take a turn for the worse. Getting dominated by the Canadiens and Maple Leafs, it’s clear there are massive holes in the Canucks’ game. The problems don’t even stop on the ice, as Jim Benning is sitting on the thinnest piece of ice possible. For sure time to keep an eye on Vancouver for a number of reasons.

West Division

RankChangeTeamTeam NameLast WeekRecordTWCScore
Vegas Golden Knights2-0-07-1-1897.5
Colorado Avalanche1-0-07-3-1808.1
St Louis Blues1-2-07-4-1693.1
Minnesota Wild0-1-06-5-0684
Arizona Coyotes2-1-05-5-1668.4
Anaheim Ducks2-0-15-5-3636.6
San Jose Sharks1-0-14-5-1614.9
Los Angeles Kings0-3-03-6-2526.4

The West Division was also plagued by a number of COVID delays, but nonetheless the Vegas Golden Knights took the overall number one spot in the NHL after a 2-0-0 week. Can’t say enough good things about the Knights, in fact it would be hard to pin point the negatives in their game at this point.

Although only laying one game, the Colorado Avalanche were still able to jump up the rankings. The Avalanche and Minnesota Wild will both be out of action for a bit longer, but still remain the upper half of the division.

The California teams continue to sort out the bottom of the division, with the Los Angeles Kings having the toughest week at 0-3-0. The Anaheim Ducks on the other hand went 2-0-1 last week, to gain bragging rights on the West Coast for the time being.

What are your thoughts? Are you surprised where your team landed this week? Let us know at @wincolumnblog.

All data courtesy of Natural Stat Trick.

Previous Weeks: Week 1| 2 | 3

Back to top button