Calgary Flames

TWC Power Rankings 2021: Week 10

Welcome back to the new and improved 2021 TWC Power Rankings!

Here at TWC, we use a statistical model to effectively rank teams on a week to week basis. The model takes into effect winning percentages, CF%, SCF%, HDCF% as well as SV%. Each statistical category is weighed and scored differently, giving each team a unique TWC Score that determines their ranking after each week. The formula puts the highest emphasis on winning percentages over other statistics. All numbers are taken in all situations, to incorporate special teams into the fray.

We got some excellent feedback over the course of last season from our readers as to how we could improve this model moving forward. We have slightly altered the weightings of the statistical categories, but also added a large recency component to make sure that each week the teams that are riding hot streaks are more appropriately demonstrated in the rankings. 

Additionally, due to the 2021 NHL Season realignment, we have broken down teams into their respective divisions while also maintaining their league ranking.

Don’t like where your team is ranked? Unfortunately, they will have to turn it around on the ice, as we take zero personal opinions into effect.

Central Division

RankChangeTeamTeam NameLast WeekRecordTWCScore
Tampa Bay Lightning4-1-023-6-2825.2
Florida Panthers2-2-020-7-4788.5
Carolina Hurricanes0-1-220-7-3779.1
Dallas Stars1-1-210-10-8673.6
Columbus Blue Jackets2-0-013-12-7659.4
Nashville Predators3-1-014-17-1639.2
Chicago Blackhawks0-3-014-13-5611.1
Detroit Red Wings2-1-010-18-4572

The big three in the Central Division continue to dominate the TWC Power Rankings. The Tampa Bay Lightning, Florida Panthers, and Carolina Hurricanes all remained in the top five this week. The Hurricanes didn’t fair as strongly as the others, going 0-1-2, but are still getting a huge boost from their underlying numbers.

The fourth place spot in the divisions remains the league’s most interesting race. As it stands right now, the Columbus Blue Jackets and Chicago Blackhawks are tied, with Chicago holding the edge in ROW. The Blackhawks have lost four straight games in regulation, causing them to lose their hold on the fourth spot.

Of course the race is not limited to just those two teams, with the Dallas Stars having four games in hand and only five points to make up. The Stars hold the edge in terms of our model for now, but it’s truly anyone’s spot a this point.

East Division

RankChangeTeamTeam NameLast WeekRecordTWCScore
New York Islanders1-2-020-8-4772.3
Washington Capitals3-1-020-7-4767
Boston Bruins2-1-016-8-4739.8
Pittsburgh Penguins2-2-119-11-2715.7
Philadelphia Flyers2-2-015-11-3679.1
New York Rangers2-1-113-13-4666.8
New Jersey Devils3-1-011-14-4626.7
Buffalo Sabres0-3-06-19-4494.4

The New York Islanders saw their win streak come to an end last week at the hands of the Washington Capitals. The Capitals are a team that we haven’t looked into in enough detail, but after going 3-1-0 last week it’s about time we do.

From the stats that are weighted in our model, the Capitals are 21st in CF%, 16th in xGF%, 21st in SCF%, 23rd in HDCF%, and 21st in SV%. For a team that is 20-7-4 this season, it’s almost a bit shocking to see where they rank in terms of their advanced stats. Now the interesting piece here is that our model pulls stats at All Strengths to weight PP, PK, and 4v4 into the calculations. When looking at just 5v5 numbers, the Capitals actually get a bump across all categories measured. So there is something with their special teams that is bogging them down a bit. That being said, win percentage carries the most value in the model and is giving the Capitals the biggest boost right now.

North Division

RankChangeTeamTeam NameLast WeekRecordTWCScore
Toronto Maple Leafs1-1-020-10-2762.3
Edmonton Oilers3-1-021-13-0739.8
Montreal Canadiens2-0-214-8-9734.4
Winnipeg Jets1-3-018-11-2672.3
Calgary Flames2-2-015-14-3658.1
Vancouver Canucks3-0-116-16-3653.6
Ottawa Senators0-0-210-20-3564.8

Bit of a mixed bag in Canada last week. Teams like the Toronto Maple Leafs, Winnipeg Jets, and Calgary Flames failed to make up any serious ground. The opposite can be said for the Edmonton Oilers and Vancouver Canucks who went a combined 6-1-1 last week.

The Oilers rank seventh in xGF%, tenth in SCF%, and ninth in HDCF%. With middle of the pack numbers in CF% and SV%, the Oilers clearly hold the edge in terms of being able to generate scoring chances and control the puck. This is helping them dominate some teams in the north division.

The Canucks on the other end are 27th in CF%, 30th in xGF%, 31st in SCF%, and 24th in HDCF%, which as you can tell is not overly good. Right now they hold the 17th ranked SV%, which is saving them in our model, but also on the ice where Thatcher Demko is giving them a chance. Things may normalize for the Canucks, but for the time being they are keeping themselves in the race despite poor performances.

West Division

RankChangeTeamTeam NameLast WeekRecordTWCScore
Colorado Avalanche3-0-019-8-2826.2
Vegas Golden Knights3-1-021-7-1812.6
Minnesota Wild1-2-018-10-1739.3
St Louis Blues2-1-016-10-5693.9
Los Angeles Kings2-1-013-11-6663.9
Arizona Coyotes1-1-113-13-5638.1
San Jose Sharks0-3-111-14-4595.4
Anaheim Ducks1-2-09-17-6552.2

A team that we haven’t fully discussed in detail this season requires our full attention in Week 10. The Colorado Avalanche are currently on a six game win streak and have catapulted themselves into the top spot in the TWC Power Rankings, just slightly edging out the Tampa Bay Lightning and Vegas Golden Knights. The Avalanche are ranked first in CF%, SCF%, and xGF%, while they also place third in HDCF%. Their only “weakness” is in net, where they rank eight in SV%. Not even weakness per say, but it’s the only metric weighted that is outside of the top five. The Avalanche were pegged to be a contender and their numbers and record are truly establishing that.

An interesting team to look at this week is the Los Angeles Kings. Currently fifth in the division, after going 2-1-0 last week, the Kings are a bit a mixed bag in terms of our model. They are ranked in the bottom third among most metrics weighted, but they also are getting a big push from their sixth ranked SV%. Goaltending is king in this league and it’s true to say that the Kings are getting some additional wins because of it. They currently sit five points out of a playoff position with one game in hand, so does that give them a chance at making a playoff push? Time will tell.

Have any suggestions for the TWC Power Rankings for next season? Leave us a comment and let us know!

Are you surprised where your team landed this week? Let us know at @wincolumnblog.

All data courtesy of Natural Stat Trick.

Back to top button