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TWC Power Rankings 2021: Week 2

Welcome back to the new and improved 2021 TWC Power Rankings!

Here at TWC, we use a statistical model to effectively rank teams on a week to week basis. The model takes into effect winning percentages, CF%, SCF%, HDCF% as well as SV%. Each statistical category is weighed and scored differently, giving each team a unique TWC Score that determines their ranking after each week. The formula puts the highest emphasis on winning percentages over other statistics. All numbers are taken in all situations, to incorporate special teams into the fray.

We got some excellent feedback over the course of last season from our readers as to how we could improve this model moving forward. We have slightly altered the weightings of the statistical categories, but also added a large recency component to make sure that each week the teams that are riding hot streaks are more appropriately demonstrated in the rankings. 

Additionally, due to the 2021 NHL Season realignment, we have broken down teams into their respective divisions while also maintaining their league ranking.

Don’t like where your team is ranked? Unfortunately, they will have to turn it around on the ice, as we take zero personal opinions into effect.

Have any suggestions for the TWC Power Rankings for next season? Leave us a comment and let us know!

Central Division

RankChangeTeamTeam NameLast WeekRecordTWCScore
Florida Panthers1-0-02-0-0997.7
Dallas Stars2-0-02-0-0981.3
Tampa Bay Lightning1-1-03-1-0830
Carolina Hurricanes1-0-02-1-0823.4
Columbus Blue Jackets2-0-22-2-2637.4
Chicago Blackhawks2-0-12-3-1603.1
Nashville Predators0-3-02-3-0546.6
Detroit Red Wings1-3-02-4-0531.1

The Florida Panthers retain the top spot in Week 2, although they only added one game to their record. Due to the postponing of some of their games, they still benefit off of their small sample size 2-0-0 record. The Panthers aren’t necessarily a bad team by any means, but would easily need to see more out of them before declaring them the kings of the Central.

The Dallas Stars finally got into action this past week, and picked up two impressive wins over the Nashville Predators. The team hasn’t looked like they have lost a step since the Stanley Cup final last year, but similar to the Panthers they have only played two games and their ranking has benefited from that.

The Tampa Bay Lightning continued their solid play, although the loss to a short-handed Columbus Blue Jackets probably stung a bit. Speaking of the Blue Jackets’ impressive win, after trading away Pierre-Luc Dubois, the team now awaits the arrival of Jack Roslovic and Patrik Laine to bolster what appears to be an already deep lineup.

The Chicago Blackhawks started trending in the right direction, while the Detroit Red Wings and Nashville Predators did not.

East Division

RankChangeTeamTeam NameLast WeekRecordTWCScore
Washington Capitals2-0-14-0-2804.4
Boston Bruins2-1-03-1-1794.2
New York Islanders2-1-03-2-0741.5
New Jersey Devils2-1-03-1-1736.7
Pittsburgh Penguins1-0-22-2-2669.2
Buffalo Sabres2-1-12-3-1669.1
Philadelphia Flyers1-2-13-2-1641.2
New York Rangers1-2-02-3-0611.6

The Washington Capitals used a 2-0-0 week to jump up into first spot in the East Division, while the Bruins used an equally strong 2-1-0 week to move into second place. Two teams expected to be near the top of the standings have found their way there yet again.

The New Jersey Devils continued their strong start to the season, on the back of Jack Hughes, to keep their position near the top of the division. Potential surprise of the year?

By far the most interesting team in the division is the Philadelphia Flyers. A 1-2-1 week shouldn’t have them plummeting near the bottom of the division, but after looking into some of their underlying numbers it makes much more sense. They rank 30th in CF%, 29th in xGF%, 29th in SCF%, 29th in HDCF%, and are only 17th in SV%. Although only six games into the season, finding themselves at the bottom of the list cannot be a welcomed sign.

After a tough first week to the season, good to see the Buffalo Sabres bounce back to a 2-1-1 week and have made things even closer in the standings.

North Division

RankChangeTeamTeam NameLast WeekRecordTWCScore
Montreal Canadiens4-0-05-0-1915.9
Toronto Maple Leafs3-1-05-2-0799.4
Calgary Flames1-1-02-1-1740.9
Winnipeg Jets3-2-04-2-0731.5
Edmonton Oilers2-2-03-4-0632.9
Ottawa Senators0-2-11-3-1506.9
Vancouver Canucks0-3-11-5-1436.8

Did everyone underestimate the Montreal Canadiens? Carey Price looks to be in complete control of his game, and will get much more rest behind Jake Allen this season. Tyler Toffoli looks to be the steal of free agency so far, and absolutely torched his former team this past week. The team just looks to be completely clicking right now after a 4-0-0 week.

The Toronto Maple Leafs also came to play last week, winning three straight games, and keep pace with their original six rivals. This is a much deeper team than we have seen in the past, and have found interesting ways to win their games. Will be a tough time to knock them down the standings.

The Calgary Flames and Ottawa Senators had very quiet weeks, which caused them to stay relatively in the same position. The opposite can be said for the Winnipeg Jets who played five games last week, going 3-2-0. Aside from last night’s last second regulation loss, the Jets look to be a contender in the division and adding Dubois will only further that case.

Speaking of the last minute regulation win, the Edmonton Oilers really needed that. A decent 2-2-0 week doesn’t hurt them, but there are still some issues to figure out in Oil Country. Perhaps the line juggling last night is what they needed?

Finally, the Vancouver Canucks did not have much fun last week. 0-3-1 is not how you want your second week to go. There are a lot of things working against the Canucks right now, which means it’s not quite time to hit the panic button. It can’t be fun to watch their former players enjoying so much success this season, especially while those holes they left in the lineup continue to grow.

West Division

RankChangeTeamTeam NameLast WeekRecordTWCScore
Vegas Golden Knights3-1-05-1-0894.5
Minnesota Wild2-2-04-2-0807.7
Colorado Avalanche2-2-03-3-0683.1
St Louis Blues2-1-13-2-1672.4
Los Angeles Kings2-2-02-2-2634.6
San Jose Sharks2-2-03-3-0630.1
Anaheim Ducks2-1-12-2-2598
Arizona Coyotes1-3-02-3-1571.5

The Vegas Golden Knights and Minnesota Wild were able to maintain their hot starts, retaining the top two spots in the West Division. Both teams sport strong records, but also are being fueled by strong underlying numbers. Both teams rank in the top ten across all statistical categories measures, with the Knights ranking first in xGF% and the Wild ranking first in HDCF%. Two really tough teams in an already close division.

The Colorado Avalanche and St. Louis Blues had decent weeks to keep their stock in the division. The same can be said for the San Jose Sharks and Los Angeles Kings, who both sported 2-2-0 records over the past seven days. There seems to be a number of teams who have split games between their series, which causes a lot of this consistency in records.

That can’t be said for the Coyotes who went 1-3-0 last week. It’s too early to declare the Coyotes in trouble, but they sure look to be having a tough time against the teams in the West. They rank in the bottom half of all statistical categories measured, aside from SV% where they rank 16th, which isn’t much of a consolation prize. Their lineup isn’t terrible, but needs some added depth. Here’s to hoping they turn it around sooner rather than later.

What are your thoughts? Are you surprised where your team landed this week? Let us know at @wincolumnblog.

All data courtesy of Natural Stat Trick.

Previous Weeks: Week 1

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