At long last, the end of the NHL season is in sight. The excitement of the playoffs is building and just one (partial) week of games left to go. For this final full-week edition of the TWC NHL Power Rankings, we take a look at who’s hot and who’s not with the playoffs just around the corner.
TWC Power Rankings explained
If you’re new to our power rankings, this is how it all works.
Here at TWC, we use a statistical model to effectively rank teams on a week to week basis. The model takes into effect winning percentages, CF%, SCF%, HDCF% as well as SV%. Each statistical category is weighed and scored differently, giving each team a unique TWC Score that determines their ranking after each week. The formula puts the highest emphasis on winning percentages over other statistics. All numbers are taken in all situations, to incorporate special teams into the fray.
We got some excellent feedback over the course of last season from our readers as to how we could improve this model moving forward. This year we have slightly altered the weightings of the statistical categories, but also re-worked the recency component to make sure that each week the teams that are riding hot streaks are more appropriately demonstrated in the rankings.
Don’t like where your team is ranked? Unfortunately, they will have to turn it around on the ice, as we take zero personal opinions into effect.
Have any suggestions for the TWC Power Rankings for next season? Leave us a comment and let us know. Without further ado, this week’s power rankings are below!
Week 25 NHL Power Rankings
|Rank||Change||Team||Team Name||Last Week||Record||TWCScore|
|4||–||New Jersey Devils||2-1-0||50-22-8||761.8|
|5||+4||Toronto Maple Leafs||2-0-1||47-21-11||751.7|
|8||–||Vegas Golden Knights||2-0-2||49-22-9||739.7|
|9||-2||New York Rangers||2-0-1||47-21-12||729|
|14||-8||Los Angeles Kings||0-3-0||45-25-10||704.1|
|17||-6||Tampa Bay Lightning||0-3-0||45-29-6||677|
|18||–||New York Islanders||2-0-0||41-30-9||672.4|
|23||+1||St Louis Blues||2-1-0||37-36-7||627.5|
|24||+2||Detroit Red Wings||1-1-1||35-34-10||614.5|
|26||+1||San Jose Sharks||0-2-1||22-41-16||583.8|
|30||–||Columbus Blue Jackets||0-3-0||24-47-8||524.4|
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Week 25 Highlights
This week, an incredible seven teams went undefeated. Of those seven, a few managed the feat even though they played four games in the seven-day period: the Colorado Avalanche and Seattle Kraken.
While for many it’s no surprise to see the Avalanche picking up steam at the right time, the Kraken’s streak probably comes as more of a relief to fans of the team. Although their playoff position hasn’t been in doubt for months, they did go on a bit of a cold streak that pushed them down towards the wild card battle. But with games about to become infinitely more important, the Kraken are back on track.
The Kraken are a strong possession team, and have solid underlying numbers in the categories considered by the model. Combined with a roster chalk-full of players capable of scoring goals, and the Kraken look to be a tough out in the playoffs.
Another team that had an impressive undefeated week was the Edmonton Oilers. On an absolute tear to end the season, the Oilers went 3–0–0, with superstar Connor McDavid putting up some gaudy numbers along the way. On top of McDavid’s dominance, the Oilers finally seem to have put a strong team around him.
They’re fifth in Corsi percentage, and sixth in scoring chance percentage. With Stuart Skinner leading the way in the blue paint, the Oilers are firing on all cylinders with the most important part of the year coming up.
Staying in the Pacific Division, the Los Angeles Kings were on the opposite end of the spectrum this week. Although the Kings have been solid throughout the year, they dropped all their games in Week 25. The power rankings model can be more forgiving of a losing streak when the team has strong underlying numbers like the Kings, but with everyone else heating up around them, the Kings fell a full eight positions this week. Hopefully for Kings fans it’s just a tough week, and not a sign of a team running out of steam at the worst possible time.
Moving to the Central Division, the Dallas Stars had an impressive week. Top-ten in every statistic the model considers, the Stars are making their way into the playoffs with a ton of momentum.
Over in the Eastern Conference, the playoff race is going down to the wire. Four teams could still realistically lock down the final wild card spot. Among those four, no team made or lost significant ground this week, and none saw a major shift in their ranking here. Still, it noteworthy that among these contenders for the last spot, the model prefers the Florida Panthers.
The Panthers have elite talent up front, and with their strong underlying numbers and improvement throughout the season look to have the best chance at securing that final slot.
Back on the Western side of the continent, three teams are duking it out for the last wildcard spot. The Calgary Flames, Winnipeg Jets, and Nashville Predators. Based on the power rankings alone, it would appear the Flames are most likely to secure the spot, buoyed by their possession metrics after an uninspiring week.
However, the Jets have the edge in the standings, and look to be clinging on to that position. For any of these three teams, it’s fair to question if they could survive even into the second round, but the battle to make it will be intense until the bitter end.
Next week, with the regular season wrapped up, we’ll recap the year’s power rankings ahead of the playoffs. Be sure to check in for a look at how these rankings evolved throughout the year.
Past 2022–23 Power Rankings
Check here for how teams have done over past weeks and stay tuned for upcoming power rankings.