The NHL holiday break finally brought some stability in the TWC NHL Power Rankings. We have a brand new, well deserved, number one team, combined with just a few big movers across the board. The stage is set for a thrilling 2023 in the league.
TWC Power Rankings explained
If you’re new to our power rankings, this is how it all works.
Here at TWC, we use a statistical model to effectively rank teams on a week to week basis. The model takes into effect winning percentages, CF%, SCF%, HDCF% as well as SV%. Each statistical category is weighed and scored differently, giving each team a unique TWC Score that determines their ranking after each week. The formula puts the highest emphasis on winning percentages over other statistics. All numbers are taken in all situations, to incorporate special teams into the fray.
We got some excellent feedback over the course of last season from our readers as to how we could improve this model moving forward. This year we have slightly altered the weightings of the statistical categories, but also re-worked the recency component to make sure that each week the teams that are riding hot streaks are more appropriately demonstrated in the rankings.
Don’t like where your team is ranked? Unfortunately, they will have to turn it around on the ice, as we take zero personal opinions into effect.
Have any suggestions for the TWC Power Rankings for next season? Leave us a comment and let us know. Without further ado, this week’s power rankings are below!
Week 11 NHL Power Rankings
|Rank||Change||Team||Team Name||Last Week||Record||TWCScore|
|3||-2||New Jersey Devils||1-2-0||22-10-2||824.9|
|5||+1||Toronto Maple Leafs||2-0-0||21-7-6||783.6|
|8||+1||Vegas Golden Knights||2-1-0||24-11-1||745|
|10||+2||New York Rangers||1-1-0||19-11-5||733.9|
|12||-7||Tampa Bay Lightning||0-2-0||20-11-1||730.7|
|14||–||Los Angeles Kings||2-0-1||19-12-6||709.9|
|19||+1||New York Islanders||1-1-1||19-14-2||652.2|
|23||–||St Louis Blues||1-1-1||16-16-2||627.4|
|24||+1||San Jose Sharks||1-1-0||11-18-6||618.3|
|25||-1||Detroit Red Wings||1-0-1||14-11-7||612.4|
|32||-1||Columbus Blue Jackets||0-3-0||10-21-2||366.9|
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Week 11 Highlights
The Carolina Hurricanes are the newest team to hit the number one ranking in our list this season. Ranked in the second spot last week, we heard it from Canes fans as to why they weren’t in second. Luckily the model rewarded them for Week 11, although not shocking with eight straight wins. The team now sits in first in the Metropolitan Division in points, but their underlying numbers are some of the best in the NHL. They sit first in CF% and SCF% and eight in HDCF%. This team is just plain good.
The Boston Bruins moved up into second place this week, which isn’t shocking since they still hold the best record in the NHL. Four straight wins an a 7–1–2 record in their last ten make them an easy team for our model.
The New Jersey Devils finally fell slightly off of their porch this week after a 1–2–0 record. The team had been reeling for a few weeks, and our recency component finally caught up to them. A 3–6–1 record in their last ten, combined with some underlying number drops in SV% fully explain this drop. The Devils will need better.
In fourth this week are the Colorado Avalanche, who come as a bit of a shock due only to their injury problems. The team has not been with some of their best and depth players for most of the season, yet four straight wins has them up to fourth in our rankings this week. They are a top-ten team in most stat categories measured here, but get a big boost from their second ranked SV%. The defending cup champs just won’t go away.
The Toronto Maple Leafs round out our top five thanks to a perfect 2–0–0 week. Similar to the Bruins, the Leafs have been consistent in their last 10 games and are near the top of their division. So far so good.
Moving down our list a few teams stick out among the rest that just moved slightly this week, starting with the Tampa Bay Lightning. A 0–2–0 record dropped the Lightning down seven spots, which is strange considering they are third in the Atlantic Division. A big reason for that is that in all situations, the Lightning are a bottom half team in CF% and SCF%. They may rank in the top half for HDCF% and SV%, but they aren’t as flashy as other teams. These back-to-back losses really seemed to knock them back a step, but looking at other teams around them their TWCScore is so close that they realistically could have been three spots higher just based off of a simple statistical change.
Another team that dropped considerably were the Florida Panthers, down six spots to 21st. With three straight losses, and a 3–7–0 record, one has to wonder just what is happening in South Florida. Fans are rightfully angry after seeing Paul Maurice not fit as well compared to Andrew Brunette. Although Matthew Tkachuk has been a star, it’s taken the team a bit longer to adjust without Jonathan Huberdeau and MacKenzie Weegar. Combine that with Alexsander Barkov not being healthy 100% of the time and it’s not looking great for Florida.
On a positive note, the Washington Capitals were the biggest gainers this week moving up six spots to 15th. They are 9–1–0 in their last ten games, riding a four-game win streak, in addition to Alex Ovechkin scoring his 801st and 802nd NHL goal. All good vibes in the Nation’s capital right now.
Past 2022–23 Power Rankings
Check here for how teams have done over past weeks and stay tuned for upcoming power rankings.