The TWC NHL Power Rankings are back in action for the 2022–23 season. The model has been updated and reworked to bring you the most transparent and unbiased power rankings on a weekly basis. First up is setting the playing field, with some expected and unexpected teams near the top. Next week is when the real action picks up, but there some initial stars and losers to highlight already.
TWC Power Rankings explained
If you’re new to our power rankings, this is how it all works.
Here at TWC, we use a statistical model to effectively rank teams on a week to week basis. The model takes into effect winning percentages, CF%, SCF%, HDCF% as well as SV%. Each statistical category is weighed and scored differently, giving each team a unique TWC Score that determines their ranking after each week. The formula puts the highest emphasis on winning percentages over other statistics. All numbers are taken in all situations, to incorporate special teams into the fray.
We got some excellent feedback over the course of last season from our readers as to how we could improve this model moving forward. This year we have slightly altered the weightings of the statistical categories, but also re-worked the recency component to make sure that each week the teams that are riding hot streaks are more appropriately demonstrated in the rankings.
Don’t like where your team is ranked? Unfortunately, they will have to turn it around on the ice, as we take zero personal opinions into effect.
Have any suggestions for the TWC Power Rankings for next season? Leave us a comment and let us know. Without further ado, this week’s power rankings are below!
Week 1 NHL Power Rankings
|Rank||Change||Team||Team Name||Last Week||Record||TWCScore|
|4||–||Vegas Golden Knights||3-0-0||3-0-0||948.4|
|6||–||St Louis Blues||1-0-0||1-0-0||929.4|
|9||–||Detroit Red Wings||2-0-0||2-0-0||911.7|
|12||–||Toronto Maple Leafs||2-1-0||2-1-0||765|
|13||–||New York Rangers||2-1-0||2-1-0||753.3|
|16||–||New York Islanders||1-1-0||1-1-0||633.5|
|22||–||Los Angeles Kings||1-2-0||1-2-0||528.4|
|23||–||Tampa Bay Lightning||1-2-0||1-2-0||521.1|
|26||–||New Jersey Devils||0-2-0||0-2-0||466.3|
|30||–||San Jose Sharks||0-4-0||0-4-0||380|
|31||–||Columbus Blue Jackets||0-3-0||0-3-0||313.1|
Week one is always a tough one to take a lot of stock in, but enough teams have multiple games under their belts that it’s worth to keep track of.
The Pittsburgh Penguins start off the 2022–23 season at the top of our rankings. Fascinating to see after a summer where they almost lost two of their big three, in addition to most people thinking they had finally run out of time. It’s early, and one of the games was against the Coyotes, but the Penguins are first in xGF%, HDCF%, & SV%, as well as third in CF% & SCF%. Will be key to watch just how well these numbers hold up in the next few weeks.
Another team people thought would be out of time were the Boston Bruins. A 2–0–0 start combined with being second in SCF% and HDCF% has this team back near the top of the Atlantic Division.
The Carolina Hurricanes, who were pegged as Stanley Cup favourites this season, are back to their old tricks near the top of our list. If you have been following us the last few seasons, our model loves the Canes and consistently has them near the top week after week. This season is no different.
Rounding out the top five in week one are the Vegas Golden Knights and Florida Panthers. The Goldn Knights have defied the lowly expectations given prior to the season to take an early lead in the Pacific Division—albeit strength of schedule definitely factors into their start. While the Panthers, being fueled by recently acquired Matthew Tkachuk, don’t look to have taken a step back either.
Moving down the list, the remainder of the undefeated teams in the St. Louis Blues, Calgary Flames, Dallas Stars, Detroit Red Wings (!!), Winnipeg Jets, and Philadelphia Flyers round out the rest of the top eleven. Some of these teams are inflated by an undefeated record in a small sample size, like the Blues and Jets, but others like the Stars, Red Wings, and Flyers are off to extremely hot starts.
The Flames, who came in with large expectations, have backed it up thus far with a season opening win against the Colorado Avalanche and a Battle of Alberta revenge win against the Edmonton Oilers.
Moving down the list, teams like the New York Rangers and Colorado Avalanche will easily get bumps next week based on their play so far, but just have a weaker P% compared to the undefeated teams. Look for them to make a big jump in the coming weeks.
In the bottom third of the list, a few teams are surprising to note. Starting off with the Tampa Bay Lightning, they are only 1–2–0 to start the season with the one win coming against the lowly Columbus Blue Jackets. Despite Steven Stamkos being near the top of the league leaders in points, does the tank look to be a bit empty for a team that has gone to three straight Stanley Cup Finals?
The Vancouver Canucks, Minnesota Wild, and Ottawa Senators all had higher expectations heading into the season, but so far a combined 0–6–0 start has these teams 27th–29th on our list. Not good at all.
At the bottom to start off the year, the Arizona Coyotes are expected to have a rough year, but the Blue Jackets surely expected more. They are currently in the bottom two across almost every statistical category. Maybe the potential to play with Connor Bedard is why Johnny Gaudreau signed in Columbus?
Stay tuned next week for the first few big swings of the season!