In the first TWC NHL Power Ranking of 2023, there are some big changes. With three new teams in the top five and jumps and slides of up to eight positions, the new year is off to an exciting start in the power rankings.
TWC Power Rankings explained
If you’re new to our power rankings, this is how it all works.
Here at TWC, we use a statistical model to effectively rank teams on a week to week basis. The model takes into effect winning percentages, CF%, SCF%, HDCF% as well as SV%. Each statistical category is weighed and scored differently, giving each team a unique TWC Score that determines their ranking after each week. The formula puts the highest emphasis on winning percentages over other statistics. All numbers are taken in all situations, to incorporate special teams into the fray.
We got some excellent feedback over the course of last season from our readers as to how we could improve this model moving forward. This year we have slightly altered the weightings of the statistical categories, but also re-worked the recency component to make sure that each week the teams that are riding hot streaks are more appropriately demonstrated in the rankings.
Don’t like where your team is ranked? Unfortunately, they will have to turn it around on the ice, as we take zero personal opinions into effect.
Have any suggestions for the TWC Power Rankings for next season? Leave us a comment and let us know. Without further ado, this week’s power rankings are below!
Week 12 NHL Power Rankings
|Rank||Change||Team||Team Name||Last Week||Record||TWCScore|
|3||+2||Toronto Maple Leafs||2-1-0||23-8-6||772.3|
|4||+8||Tampa Bay Lightning||3-0-0||23-11-1||760.6|
|6||+2||Vegas Golden Knights||1-1-1||25-12-2||746.4|
|7||-4||New Jersey Devils||1-1-1||23-11-3||723.1|
|10||–||New York Rangers||1-1-1||20-12-6||715.3|
|11||+3||Los Angeles Kings||2-1-0||21-13-6||711.1|
|16||+3||New York Islanders||2-1-0||21-15-2||676.6|
|23||–||St Louis Blues||1-1-1||17-17-3||633.1|
|24||+1||Detroit Red Wings||2-1-0||16-12-7||631.9|
|26||-2||San Jose Sharks||1-2-1||12-20-7||605.4|
|30||+2||Columbus Blue Jackets||1-1-0||11-22-2||506.1|
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Week 12 Highlights
For the second consecutive week, the Carolina Hurricanes top the rankings. Undoubtedly the hottest team in the NHL, the Canes have won 11 straight games. The wins are backed up by exceptional underlying numbers too, as they lead the league in both Corsi and scoring chance share. If they keep rolling like they have been, it will be nearly impossible for anyone to catch them.
In a close second are the Boston Bruins. Despite two extra-time losses on the week and just one win, the Bruins league-best record and save percentage help them maintain their second place position. Aside from goaltending, they are near the top of the league in every other category considered by the model too.
The Toronto Maple Leafs’ 2–1–0 record propelled them up into third place. On top of their record, the Leafs are also top-three in the league in several important considerations of the model, including scoring chance share, high danger Corsi share, and winning percentage. Although it’s hard to match the dominance of the Hurricanes and Bruins, the Leafs are one of the NHL’s elite teams through 12 weeks of the season.
Moving on, after an undefeated week in which they won three times, the Tampa Bay Lightning moved up to fourth place in the rankings. Outscoring their opponents 11–5 in those three games, the Lightning are unsurprisingly in a playoff spot in the tough Atlantic Division. Although their possession numbers are fairly average, they turn that possession into the eighth best scoring chance share in the league, an important consideration in the power rankings model.
Finally, closing out the top five are the Dallas Stars. A surprise for some this season, the Stars boast the league’s second best goal differential. They also sit atop the highly competitive Central Division, and it’s easy to see why. They defeated not only the Sharks, but two divisional opponents this week, the Predators and Wild.
The Washington Capitals were another big winner on the week. Moving up six places into ninth overall, despite fairly average underlying numbers. They are helped tremendously by their goaltending and shooting talent, as they hold the sixth best team save percentage in the league, and have the sixth most goals for.
Two teams tied for the biggest drops of the week. First, the Pittsburgh Penguins. After collecting only one point out of a possible six, the fall makes sense. Although they perform well in terms of high-danger Corsi, their other underlying numbers are pretty average, so the losses quickly drag them down in the eyes of the model.
Another team that slipped eight spots down the standings to start the new year are the Colorado Avalanche. With a record on the week identical to the Penguins’, it makes sense. Still, in the cases of both the Penguins and the Avalanche, it seems unlikely they stay down with the talent on their rosters. In particular for the Avalanche, they’ve just got back their superstar centreman Nathan MacKinnon back, which is sure to swing momentum in the Aves favour.
Ending on a positive, another teams that saw a big rise in position were the Minnesota Wild. They leapt up five places into eighth place after beating both the Jets and Ducks. Although they also have average underlying numbers, they boast the 10th best points percentage in the league, and are holding down third place in the Central Division.
Past 2022–23 Power Rankings
Check here for how teams have done over past weeks and stay tuned for upcoming power rankings.