It’s been an active week in the TWC NHL Power Rankings, with streaking teams making major moves, and a new team in the top two. Read on to find where your team landed in this week’s edition.
TWC Power Rankings explained
If you’re new to our power rankings, this is how it all works.
Here at TWC, we use a statistical model to effectively rank teams on a week to week basis. The model takes into effect winning percentages, CF%, SCF%, HDCF% as well as SV%. Each statistical category is weighed and scored differently, giving each team a unique TWC Score that determines their ranking after each week. The formula puts the highest emphasis on winning percentages over other statistics. All numbers are taken in all situations, to incorporate special teams into the fray.
We got some excellent feedback over the course of last season from our readers as to how we could improve this model moving forward. This year we have slightly altered the weightings of the statistical categories, but also re-worked the recency component to make sure that each week the teams that are riding hot streaks are more appropriately demonstrated in the rankings.
Don’t like where your team is ranked? Unfortunately, they will have to turn it around on the ice, as we take zero personal opinions into effect.
Have any suggestions for the TWC Power Rankings for next season? Leave us a comment and let us know. Without further ado, this week’s power rankings are below!
Week 10 NHL Power Rankings
|Rank||Change||Team||Team Name||Last Week||Record||TWCScore|
|1||–||New Jersey Devils||0-3-1||21-8-2||859.8|
|5||+3||Tampa Bay Lightning||3-0-0||20-9-1||770.5|
|6||-1||Toronto Maple Leafs||1-2-0||19-7-6||764.6|
|9||+1||Vegas Golden Knights||2-1-0||22-10-1||734.1|
|12||+3||New York Rangers||4-0-0||18-10-5||725.9|
|14||+4||Los Angeles Kings||2-1-0||17-12-5||686.3|
|20||-4||New York Islanders||1-1-1||18-13-1||655.8|
|23||+3||St Louis Blues||3-0-0||15-15-1||611.3|
|24||-5||Detroit Red Wings||0-3-0||13-11-6||607.3|
|25||–||San Jose Sharks||1-1-1||10-17-6||600.9|
|31||–||Columbus Blue Jackets||0-3-0||10-18-2||426.6|
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Week 10 Highlights
Editors Note: During Week 9 of the TWC NHL Power Rankings there was a slight error in the model causing for some improperly ranked teams. This has been resolved and the proper rankings are reflected in this week.
Despite their brutal 0–3–1 week, the New Jersey Devils remained atop the power rankings this week. Even with the recent losses, –they have an elite winning percentage and their underlying numbers are dominant. They lead the league in high-danger Corsi, and are second in scoring chance and Corsi percentage. When you’re as dominant as they’ve been, you can afford to lose a few games without losing places in the rankings. The recency component of our model also extends three weeks and therefore this one down week won’t kill the Devils, but they are on thin ice.
Instead, the Boston Bruins slipped out of the top two for the first time since week three, the Carolina Hurricanes moved into second place. The Hurricanes were a perfect 4–0–0, with three of those wins coming against teams currently in playoff positions. They also lead the league in Corsi share by a large margin, with a four percent gap to the second ranked Devils.
In third, the Bruins are coming off a strong week, with their lone loss coming in a shootout against the Los Angeles Kings. Their drop in the rankings is more a reflection of the success of the Hurricanes than their own play dropping off. They lead the league in wining percentage, as well as save percentage, two important inputs into the power ranking model.
Following a 2–2–0 week, the Winnipeg Jets dropped down to fourth in the rankings. Four out of eight possible points on the week is nothing special, but the Jets losses came against strong teams, and their underlying numbers valued by the model are still strong, especially in the crease. They have the second best save percentage in the league, even with Connor Hellebuyck allowing six goals against the Vegas Golden Knights on Tuesday.
The Tampa Bay Lightning round out the top five after an undefeated 3–0–0 week. Interestingly, their shot attempt numbers aren’t great, but their high-danger shot attempt share is among the league’s best. The quality-over-quantity approach seems to be working for them, as they have quietly climbed to having the league’s fifth best point percentage.
Elsewhere down the list, there were some interesting developments. The Minnesota Wild had an impressive 4–0–0 week, but only managed to climb two positions to 11th. Despite the impressive streak, the model isn’t too high on the Wild due to middling possession and chance creation numbers.
Similarly, the Buffalo Sabres went a perfect 3–0–0 over the last seven days, but moved up only two spaces due to underwhelming underlying metrics. Winning is the most important factor in the TWCScore model, but the Sabres only crack the top ten in one of the other categories considered in the model: Corsi. In each of the other categories they’re in the bottom half of the league, limiting the impact their wins can have on their rank.
Among the biggest movers of the week were the Detroit Red Wings, who fell six spots. They went 0–3–0, dropping games to the Ottawa Senators, the Wild and the Hurricanes. Near the bottom of the league in every important metric, it’s a wonder they were as high as they had been last week. A return up the standings doesn’t seem likely in the short-term.
Finally, the Ottawa Senators had a strong week. They won three times and lost once, and moved four places up the rankings as a result. Their seventh ranked Corsi percentage is their best statistic, and their 15th ranked save percentage is their worst. If they can improve defensively and in goal, the rest of the season could go very well for the Senators and be a sign of good progress in the rebuilding process.
Past 2022–23 Power Rankings
Week 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9
Check here for how teams have done over past weeks and stay tuned for upcoming power rankings.
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