Week 19 was an eventful one in the NHL, with the tight eastern conference playoff race leading to an absolute arms race ahead of the trade deadline. The TWC NHL Power Rankings however, were less eventful. At this stage of the season, the model has plenty of data on each team, meaning a big week-to-week swing is less likely. Still, a few teams did move substantially up or down the list. Read on to find out if your team was one of them!
TWC Power Rankings explained
If you’re new to our power rankings, this is how it all works.
Here at TWC, we use a statistical model to effectively rank teams on a week to week basis. The model takes into effect winning percentages, CF%, SCF%, HDCF% as well as SV%. Each statistical category is weighed and scored differently, giving each team a unique TWC Score that determines their ranking after each week. The formula puts the highest emphasis on winning percentages over other statistics. All numbers are taken in all situations, to incorporate special teams into the fray.
We got some excellent feedback over the course of last season from our readers as to how we could improve this model moving forward. This year we have slightly altered the weightings of the statistical categories, but also re-worked the recency component to make sure that each week the teams that are riding hot streaks are more appropriately demonstrated in the rankings.
Don’t like where your team is ranked? Unfortunately, they will have to turn it around on the ice, as we take zero personal opinions into effect.
Have any suggestions for the TWC Power Rankings for next season? Leave us a comment and let us know. Without further ado, this week’s power rankings are below!
Week 19 NHL Power Rankings
|Rank||Change||Team||Team Name||Last Week||Record||TWCScore|
|3||–||New Jersey Devils||2-1-0||39-15-5||777.4|
|4||–||Toronto Maple Leafs||3-0-0||37-15-8||766.9|
|5||+2||Vegas Golden Knights||1-0-2||35-18-6||757.6|
|6||–||Tampa Bay Lightning||2-1-1||37-18-4||738.6|
|7||-2||New York Rangers||1-3-0||34-17-9||724.3|
|10||-2||Los Angeles Kings||1-2-1||33-20-8||712.7|
|19||+1||New York Islanders||3-1-0||31-25-7||664|
|21||+1||Detroit Red Wings||2-1-0||28-22-8||654.6|
|25||–||San Jose Sharks||1-1-1||18-30-12||599.2|
|26||–||St Louis Blues||0-1-2||26-28-5||594|
|31||-1||Columbus Blue Jackets||1-1-1||19-35-6||561.7|
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Week 19 Highlights
Perhaps the most notable change in week 19 was actually the lack of change at the top. The Boston Bruins and Carolina Hurricanes continue to duke it out for top place, while the New Jersey Devils and Toronto Maple Leafs also maintained their top-five status. The highest ranking western conference team is the Vegas Golden Knights, who jumped two spots to fifth place. This is particularly impressive considering they are without their starting goalie.
Interestingly, the New York Rangers fell out of the top five. With the acquisition of Vladimir Tarasenko, and rumored possible addition of Patrick Kane coming, they are certainly doing everything they can to gain and maintain their status as a top cup contender. They have excellent possession numbers, which the model values, but struggle a bit in terms of high-danger chance creation compared to some of the other top teams. Their team save percentage is also surprisingly average for a team with superstar Igor Shesterkin in net.
The Los Angeles Kings struggled last week, but still managed to hang on to a top ten position. The Kings have had struggles in net this year, but allow the ninth fewest high-danger Corsi against in the league. This has helped them to maintain their competitiveness in a relatively weak Pacific Division. Their team save percentage is the second worst in the league, but in every other category the model considers, they are in the trop half of the league.
The team that climbed the most this week was the Florida Panthers. Although they haven’t had a season to remember like last year, the talented roster is still in contention for a playoff spot. They are a top-ten team in terms of high-danger Corsi, and top-five in terms of scoring chance share. If their goaltenders can pick up their play a bit, they could return to contender status in time for the playoffs.
On the other side of the coin, no one lost more ground than the Seattle Kraken this week. They tumbled nine spots after losing all three of their games this week. They’re still well above the playoff cutoff line, and have solid underlying numbers, but at the end of the day the most important factor in the model is points percentage, and losing three games in a week will almost always lead to a notable slide down the list.
Most other teams essentially treaded water this week, gaining or losing only a little ground, as the power dynamics in the league are fairly established at this point in the year. Big trades could still move any team substantially as the season goes on, but it will take some time for the impact of players joining or leaving teams to be felt in the underlying numbers used in the model.
This means that the upcoming weeks after the trade deadline can be some of the most interesting in the power rankings. Be sure to tune back in next week to catch up on where everyone stands after the deadline.
Past 2022–23 Power Rankings
Week 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18
Check here for how teams have done over past weeks and stay tuned for upcoming power rankings.
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